Thread by @Tim_NBA

🧵: Denver has the #1 post up offense both by volume & efficiency.

So I logged all 800+ Nikola Jokic post up scoring possessions this year to see how he and Denver fared based on defensive approach.

There are very clearly right and wrong answers to defending him.

There's a large difference in efficiency for Jokic post ups when you let him play 1v1 vs when you send help.

It's been that way ~all season.

Overall the difference has been 0.22 points per play.

Vs some players & teams you'd rather play 1v1. Definitely not vs Jokic.

But it's more complicated than just "send help."

Why?

There are a LOT of different ways to send help on a post up.

I counted 10 used with real frequency. Here are diagrams and explanations for each of those 10.

Note: different coaches may call these by different names

There are key differences between these help types:

1) Are you DOUBLING hard, positioning to DETER, or using digs to HARASS?

2) Where are you helping from: strong or weak side?

3) Where is the weakness in the D: strong or weak side?

The answers to 2 & 3 aren't always the same

9 of the 10 help types have done better at limiting efficiency (including from pass outs) on Jokic post ups compared to letting him play 1v1.

Darker color = used more
Bigger bar = higher DEN efficiency

Note: I excluded post pins, which for him are often automatic buckets/fouls

Why doesn't Blocks & Elbows work?

DEN is organized w/pin-in flares & cuts + this is vulnerable to both + no hard double so you have time for counters to develop = DEN kills it.

Jokic is also a back to basket grinder, not a face up quickness driver.

Not a good recipe vs DEN.

Beyond baseline doubles w/no bump (which = a runway for Gordon lobs), there's another trend among what works best/worst among the 8 remaining options vs Jokic:

Concepts where your numbers disadvantage is on the weak side have all fared better than those w/strong side weakness.

We also see that actual double teams have fared best for defenses in slowing Jokic post ups.

Real hard help forces quick pass outs and gives Denver less time for their cuts and flares to be executed.

Timing on those concepts is worse + Jokic's vision is worse = better D results

"Slowing down" is still 1.13 PPP, but that's MUCH better than the 1.29 digs are getting teams or the 1.38 from playing him 1v1.

Double teams also:
- Generate the most turnovers (LOTS more Jokic bad passes)
- Yield the fewest free throw trips for DEN
- Aren't compromising DReb

The items I'd want for defending Jokic post ups with help are:

1) Quick & hard help - force quick passes before DEN's counters fully develop.

2) Be weak on weak side - make skip passes over your doubling bodies beat you, not easy kick outs

3) Mix it up. I'll explain below.

Jokic makes some insane over the shoulder and behind the back no-look passes.

He can do that because he's able to anticipate where his teammates will be based on the help faced.

Mix up help types and you throw that all off and he throws the ball away much more often.

Ex: high doubles often = kickout to the entry passer

High doubles + bumps take away the entry passer and instead give the offense an advantage on the weak side.

Mixing up those two coverages led to more confusion -> more TOs and worse shots.

Within all of this, prioritizing taking away cuts is also important.

DEN scores 0.32 PPP more on those than the rest of their play types.

If you have an AD/Brook Lopez you can deploy as goalie lurking under the rim while a bigger body (Giannis/Rui) is on-ball, that'll do it.

There are also some teams that have fared well defending him 1v1 this season. It's not a long list.

Lakers (on 36 plays)
Bucks (15 plays)

Both teams held Denver to low efficiency when defending 1v1 in both actual and expected PPP.

Everyone else, send help! And the right kinds.

Overall:

Jokic rocks and I love how organized DEN is at attacking post help. The marriage in DEN with Jokic + the scheme + the personnel works so well for them.

But there are also right answers and wrong answers for defending him. Choose wisely.

I’ll get more video up tomorrow on these help types and the help beaters that counter them.

I also have a dashboard built I can share for folks to dive into this data.

And please lord Lakers see what I’m seeing 😂

Last note:

- The PPP values are a bit juiced by negating the misses that were offensive rebounded.

I’ll report with those as 0s tomorrow. That’ll better scale the PPP values.

The ePPP values capture the shot quality well already and aren’t impacted by this.

If you plug the misses in as 0 points instead of excluding those plays for PPP:

Overall: 1.14 PPP

1.30 1v1
1.03 for help w/weak side vulnerability
1.05 for doubles

Weak doubles (0.88 ePPP, 0.84 PPP) & weak doubles w/bumps (0.86 ePPP, 0.89 PPP) rated best among specific types.