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Luke Cooper Profile picture
@lukecooper100
Apr 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Interesting in various ways:

1. Implicitly admits UK is not a “normal third country” and has leverage to negotiate special deals
2. ⁠EU takes an initiative to pursue integration with U.K. rather than saying “ball is in London’s court”.
3. ⁠Shows they expect new U.K. govt soon and trying to anticipate quick potential deals. Especially those that can be signed prior to the German elections Sept 2025.
4. This was undertaken by the European Commission due to pressure from Germany and the perceived risk that states could pursue their own bilateral deals with a new U.K. government.
5. The German government and the U.K. opposition are already discussing informally the potential for a bilateral U.K. - Germany security pact that could be adopted before the German elections.

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More from @lukecooper100

Luke Cooper Profile picture
Dec 1, 2022
I have a new report out for @Peace_Rep_,'Market economics in an all-out-war? Assessing economic and political risks to the Ukrainian war effort'. It offers an unfortunately negative assessment of Ukrainian govt economic policy in its war of resistance 🧵/1
peacerep.org/publication/ma…
Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure strike at where Ukraine is weakest - on the home front - due to the severe economic downturn. About 1 in 2 Ukrainians require emergency financial assistance to meet basic needs (IOM data) and unemployment is around 28% /2
Sectoral impacts from the war are, however, uneven and heavily related to the security situation eg steel badly hit, mining and drilling less so. There are lot of examples of resilience in the economy, from the IT sector to services. But the country is in a severe recession. /3
Read 10 tweets
Luke Cooper Profile picture
Sep 24, 2021
I assume this wasn’t the vibe the leader of the opposition was going for but felt I had to point out the parallels between the Starmer pamphlet and Xi Jinping Thought. A “spot the difference” thread...
“The road ahead will be long. The journey will not always be simple. But the choices are clear and the prizes at the end great.”

“There is a bright future for our country, but reaching it will not be easy. We cannot accomplish our goal with one single effort...”
“The future will belong to those who do not just mitigate against change but grasp the opportunities it provides.”

“The more beautiful the future, the harder we must work for it.”
Read 8 tweets
Luke Cooper Profile picture
May 28, 2021
Viktor Orbán will be repeatedly referred to as a 'populist' in the UK media today. This description is not technically wrong, but on it's own it's misleading. His populism is simply an adjunct of his racism, authoritarianism and ethnic nationalism.

So who is he? A thread
He's anti-Semitic. His govt have led a high profile hate campaign against George Soros. Eg see his speech in 2018 election: "We must speak frankly and unequivocally about the future that is intended for us in... in the alchemical workshop of George Soros." miniszterelnok.hu/prime-minister…
His speech advanced the classic anti-Semitic trope: the Jews and the cosmopolitan elite want to flood the country with Muslims. It was full of Islamophobic rhetoric and imagery, eg 👇 miniszterelnok.hu/prime-minister…
Read 15 tweets
Luke Cooper Profile picture
Apr 25, 2021
I've written a new report on the Brexit deal for @Another_Europe, picked up in today's Observer with a nice plug from the awesome @NadiaWhittomeMP.

Here's a 🧵 with some of the deets /1
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
The movement of regulatory powers to the UK is mostly pointless because outside of agriculture (where change has been signalled) and immigration (where change is substantial) in most areas the UK isn't intending to use its new 'powers'. /2 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…
The UK has won a largely nominal ability to deregulate as the level playing field protections mean that the tariff implications of deregulating in these defined areas make it pretty unlikely to ever happen /3 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…
Read 9 tweets
Luke Cooper Profile picture
Dec 28, 2020
The Scottish LP seem to think it’s sensible to hammer the SNP for voting against a deal they don’t agree with. And their voters oppose.

The grounds? The “threat” of no deal. It suits some ppl to present the vote in Parliament as a deal versus no deal choice but it’s not true /1
With the U.K. and EU agreeing a deal, the only way to get to a “no deal” would be to replace the U.K. govt with one committed to it.

Why? Parliament has extremely limited power in relation to trade deals and international treaties more broadly /2
Tomorrow the govt will publish their proposed legislation on the deal. There are various options (see below), but it will prob be a short enabling act that provides ministers with more powers to take executive action to implement the deal - not a yes/no vote on the deal as such/3
Read 12 tweets
Luke Cooper Profile picture
Dec 26, 2020
If you’re a neoliberal the benefits of leaving single market in financial services, losing passport rights etc, outweigh downsides. London banks have already relocated staff to EU to handle s/market trade. And the direction of EU is towards more democratic regulation of finance.
If you're looking at this as a big financial investor, I think you'll have a very different view of the deal compared to, say, a Japanese car maker. How can the UK guarantee it will continue to have tariff free access to EU single market in goods? UK can't really offer this.
Problem with presenting 'dynamic alignment' as an issue of sovereignty, when in fact it was about regulatory certainty and investor confidence. Can't really see this working. So what looks like good deal for manufacturing is in fact a bad one.
Read 6 tweets

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