Tom Randall Profile picture
Apr 18 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Tesla co-founder JB Straubel has built an EV-battery colossus in the scrublands of Nevada. He spent the day giving me the first look at everything @redwoodmat has been building.

It starts with *30 acres* of old batteries headed headed for recycling 🧵 Image
Redwood's industrial campus is a 300-acre slope of buildings in various stages of completion. We followed cell phones and EV batteries recycled into 2500-pound bags of fluffy white lithium, then re-made into delicate foils and cathode CAM—the most valuable EV components 2/
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It's the first full loop battery supply chain in the US — and probably in the world. Independent Stanford researchers were allowed access to Redwood's data for the most comprehensive real-world study of EV recycling. The environmental savings were 🤯 3/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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Redwood is currently recycling batteries at a rate of of 20 GWh/year. That's an extraordinary amount —more than some analysts thought would even be available in the US for a few more years. But it's just a shadow of what's to come 4/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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A key invention is the RC1, the machine that eats the machine. A giant rotating tunnel slow-cooks batteries at ~300C. It uses almost no energy—a self-perpetuating release from the cooked batteries. No oxygen, no fire, no waste. Gases are trapped & made into industrial products 5/ Image
The story photos were by Reno photographer Emily Najera, who was great to work with. Here's the anode foil machine, a first for the US. The copper is 1/10 thickness of a human hair. An unspooled roll could reach 15 kilometers. Gift link to see more👀: 6/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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“Once we've changed over the entire vehicle fleet to electric, we’ll only have to replace a couple % each year that’s lost in the process,” says Campbell. “It will become obvious to everyone that it doesn't make sense to dig out of the ground anymore” 7/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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The whole idea of "closed loop supply chains" always seemed a bit far-fetched. Seeing it in action, just a few miles down the road from Tesla's first battery Gigafactory, shows it's both possible and necessary to break China's stranglehold on the EV supply chain 8/ Image
“The simple truth of it is that it’s a damn hard thing to do," Straubel said. "It's just shocking to me, given how much battery capacity is either online now or being built, and yet 100% of its supply chain is imported.” Gift link: bloomberg.com/news/features/…

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More from @tsrandall

Apr 4
Today we dug into the EV laggards — countries adopting EVs slower than you'd expect based on factors like wealth, new-car sales, urbanicity, industry.

US & South Korea are slowpokes among the 31 post-tipping-point countries — but another country wears the true laggard crown 🧵 Image
Japan is the biggest EV laggard. It meets all the conditions that should make it a frontrunner in EVs. Instead, fully electric vehicles made up a measly 1.8% of new cars sold last year 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Japan's EV reluctance started with a bad nationwide bet on fuel cells. Since then Toyota has been a skeptic, funded misleading ads, lobbied against EV policy. “They’re behind now, and that’s a big risk” says @coreybcantor 3/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets
Feb 1
This gorgeous new BBC chart shows how the coldest days on Earth now are warmer than the hottest days before the 1980s.

You know who predicted this would happen with near-perfect precision? Exxon Mobil scientists, in an internal report in 1982. Two versions of the same chart:
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Here’s another from @exxonmobil 1982. It predicted that in 2023, our atmospheric CO2 would reach roughly 415 parts per million, raising the global average surface temperature ~1.1 degrees C.

Update: Average CO2 in 2023 was just over 420 PPM and the average temp anomaly 1.18C 2/ Image
@exxonmobil The science around climate change has improved dramatically over the last 50 years, but even then the big picture was clear to those who were looking.

BBC chart:
Exxon reports unearthed by @insideclimatenews in 2015: bbc.com/news/science-e…
insideclimatenews.org/news/16092015/…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 28, 2023
The fast part of the tech-adoption curve is happening now with electric vehicles. This is the period when preferences rapidly flip, and EVs can surge from 5% to 25% of new cars in just four years.

Five more countries just passed the tipping point. 1/ bloom.bg/3qXW6hw
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Successful new technologies—TVs, mobile phones, LED lightbulbs—follow an S-shaped adoption curve.

Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly go mainstream. EV sales rose 55% for tipping-point countries last quarter 2/
bloom.bg/3qXW6hw
The early slow part of tech adoption varies a lot, but market behavior tends to converge once things take off.

That appears to happen around 5% market share for fully electric vehicles. Here are the countries where the threshold has been crossed 3/ bloom.bg/3qXW6hw
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Read 8 tweets
Apr 14, 2023
Tesla has started a price war between battery and internal combustion engine cars, and it's just getting started🧵 Image
Last year Tesla's Model Y became one of the top three SUVs in America, even though it cost more than twice as much as the RAV4 and Honda CR-V. After Tesla's 5th round of price cuts in 2023, that cost barrier has been reduced to a speed bump 2/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tesla has cut the price of the Model Y by 24% this year. That's unheard of for such a high-volume vehicle in its prime. The closest analogue might be Ford's 28% Model T price cut in 1920 when mass production was still in its infancy 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 3, 2023
If you want to predict how much Tesla’s cheapest car will cost at any given time, you just have to know one thing: the average price paid for a new vehicle in the US. Only $300 separates the two figures, on average 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tesla's floating-price strategy is unique to the automotive world and is about to get a lot more scrutiny after yesterday's miss on Q4 deliveries. I've been looking into Tesla's price moves and what might we might learn from them 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Musk still gets heat for not sticking to the Model 3's original $35K price, but in this way the price has been remarkably consistent:
-Average paid for a new US vehicle when the "$35K Model 3" came out: $34,944
-Base Model 3 today: $46,990 vs $47,692 US average
Read 6 tweets
Dec 6, 2022
ChatGPT saved me an hour of spreadsheet work today. It wrote a complex sorting script beyond my ability, explained how it works, and helped me deploy it.

The party tricks have been fun, but this was a whoa moment for me similar to the first time I used Google Search.
Some are asking if I could share the prompt that I used. But that's just it—I'm not an expert in Excel and it wasn't a single well-written prompt. It was more like a long chat with an Excel expert who was eager to help.
I think I started with something like "Help me write a script in Google Sheets." Then just started describing the data and everything I wanted it to do. When something didn't work, I'd feed the whole code back to it and ask what changes I need to make in order to do X.
Read 8 tweets

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