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@Shifty_Coffee

Apr 24, 2024 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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1). Updated Germany thread for 2023:

We start with data for the entire country, per 2023 Microcensus.

Germans with no migrant background will definitely fall below 70% amongst all ages in 2024 and amongst children, they'll fall below 55% by 2027, if not before.

2). Comparing to 2022, the following % weighting changes have been recorded amongst under-5yr group:

No Migrant Background -1.47%
Europe (incl. Russia) +1.45%
Asia +0.39%
Türkiye +0.23%
Kazakhstan -0.06%
Americas +0.08%
Africa -0.07%
Undeclared -0.39%
Unspecified -0.16%

*Note the below:

1. Overwhelming majority in 'Kazakhstan' background are ethnic German/Russians & their descendants.

2. Those in 'Undeclared & Unspecified' groups contain children of mixed marriages (for example, between a Pole & Italian in Germany).

3). Those without a migration background in the <5yr old category have fallen from 66.7% in 2011 to 56.9% of the total in 2023, a significant decrease.

This decline is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

4). Those to a European background surged in 2023 (Ukrainians & W. Balkan children), whilst those to an Asian (incl. Turkey) background were helped by an increase in Indian, Turkish & Afghan children.

Syrians plateaued whilst African background declined, as did Kazakh.

5). When it comes to the 21 most important background groups in the <5yr old category, Europeans dominate alongside Turks, Syrians, Afghans, etc:

In 2023, N. Macedonians, Moldovans & Indians joined the top 21, replacing French, Chinese & Pakistanis.

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@Shifty_Coffee

Feb 20, 2025

1). Denmark 2024 Thread:

Births in Denmark in 2024 came to 57,079 a -0.67% YoY change.

Danish mothers saw a -1.72% drop, compared to +3.06% to mothers of foreign origin.

The largest increases were seen from mothers from The Americas (+4.18%) & Europe (+3.97%)

2). Danish mothers made up 77.26% of all births, the smallest % on record I believe.

European mothers benefited from a continued birth increase to Ukrainians, as well as increases amongst Germans, Romanians, et al.

Syrians & Turks continued to have significant falls.

3). YoY % change shows African & Asian mothers stabilising in 2024. This is almost all down to falling births amongst large refugee groups.

Births to mothers from the Indian subcontinent continuing to increase.

Read 5 tweets

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@Shifty_Coffee

Oct 27, 2023

1). Denmark Municipalities Demographic Thread (Ongoing):

Denmark is one of the few EU countries where women with no migrant background have a higher TFR (1.61) than those with a migrant background.

This thread will look at the breakdown of births in each Danish municipality.

2). For Copenhagen

3). For Aarhus

Read 8 tweets

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@Shifty_Coffee

Sep 4, 2023

1. Austria thread:

Despite Austria following a Europe-wide tread in 2022 with births to Austrian-born mothers decreasing by; 5.06% on 2021, their % share of all births was the 2nd highest since 2016.

2. As shown in other EU countries, births to non native, EU-born mothers decreased in 2022, whilst births to mothers of other countries recorded a recovery.

These would mainly be to Syrian, Afghan & other Asian mothers.

Side-note: We can look to separate the Turkish figures from 'Other Europe' by estimating their no. births in 2022 basing it off their % annual births decline since 2010 (3.8%).

Assuming this static rate from 2010 - 2016 - 2022, the Turkish births in 2022 would equate to; 2,485.

Read 10 tweets

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@Shifty_Coffee

Aug 10, 2023

1). Long German Demographic Thread below.

This thread will show the breakdown in each German State by migrant background, as well as my estimates for the < 5yr old age cohort in each German state.

We start with data for the entire country, which is both available:

2). For Bayern:

3). For Berlin:

Read 22 tweets

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@Shifty_Coffee

Aug 7, 2023

1). Netherlands demographic thread:

Births in the Netherlands took a hit in 2022, with a total of; 167,504 (-6.65%).

The decline was more pronounced amongst native Dutch mothers, as below:

Dutch -8.39%
European -6.01%
African -1.41%
Asian +0.81%
American -2.69%

2). The total fertility rate (TFR) is now below replacement (2.1) for mothers from each continent for the first time ever.

African mothers fell to 2.04 in 2022, below 2.1 for the first time.

3). When looking at 1st vs. 2nd generation, we can see that fertility for 1st generation migrants is higher, but that for African mothers is falling rapidly and European mothers are dangerously close to falling below 1.0

Read 4 tweets

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