Thread by @Shifty_Coffee

1). Updated Germany thread for 2023:

We start with data for the entire country, per 2023 Microcensus.

Germans with no migrant background will definitely fall below 70% amongst all ages in 2024 and amongst children, they'll fall below 55% by 2027, if not before.

2). Comparing to 2022, the following % weighting changes have been recorded amongst under-5yr group:

No Migrant Background -1.47%
Europe (incl. Russia) +1.45%
Asia +0.39%
Türkiye +0.23%
Kazakhstan -0.06%
Americas +0.08%
Africa -0.07%
Undeclared -0.39%
Unspecified -0.16%

*Note the below:

1. Overwhelming majority in 'Kazakhstan' background are ethnic German/Russians & their descendants.

2. Those in 'Undeclared & Unspecified' groups contain children of mixed marriages (for example, between a Pole & Italian in Germany).

3). Those without a migration background in the <5yr old category have fallen from 66.7% in 2011 to 56.9% of the total in 2023, a significant decrease.

This decline is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

4). Those to a European background surged in 2023 (Ukrainians & W. Balkan children), whilst those to an Asian (incl. Turkey) background were helped by an increase in Indian, Turkish & Afghan children.

Syrians plateaued whilst African background declined, as did Kazakh.

5). When it comes to the 21 most important background groups in the <5yr old category, Europeans dominate alongside Turks, Syrians, Afghans, etc:

In 2023, N. Macedonians, Moldovans & Indians joined the top 21, replacing French, Chinese & Pakistanis.