Thread by @11filipnovak

FPL Double Gameweek 35 🧵

Weekly piece of content that makes your life easier

• The best Spurs and Chelsea assets
• All eyes on Newcastle
• You need to stop disrespecting Brennan Johnson
• What to do with Haaland and Salah?
• ... and more

Let's dive into that:

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🔶 Another one!

After a one-week hiatus, I'm back

FPL-wise, a lot has happened since then, as the DGW chaos is in full swing and not going anywhere

As for the following season, well...

If you missed the news, note that The FA Cup quarter-finals won't cause blanks in FPL

Normally, overlapping fixtures cause 4-6 blanks

Plus, the FA Cup semi-finals might not cause any blanks in some seasons, as @BenCrellin pointed out

I can't decide how I feel about the fact there will be fewer teams with Double Gameweeks

On one hand, I enjoy planning for it

@BenCrellin On the other hand, imagine your chip strategy not revolving around blanks and doubles but rather identifying great opportunities to attack match-ups

Pure, pure analysis

Anyway, we're still in the 23/24 season

4 gameweeks to go

2 DGWs to go

One of them this week

Let's go

@BenCrellin 🔶 How many CHE/TOT players do you need?

As you see above, 2 teams are doubling this GW:

• Spurs will face Arsenal (H) and Chelsea (A)

• Chelsea will play Aston Villa (A) and Spurs (H)

At the same time, BOTH teams will double in DGW37

That's 6 fixtures in the remaining...

@BenCrellin ... four gameweeks

In this section, I don't think I'll come up with anything earth-shattering

But I'll try to give you the best possible awareness of what's to come

Let's start with the obvious

Aka Cole Palmer (£6.2m)

He seems to have recovered from the illness and...

@BenCrellin ... will be available for the selection against Villa

If you read my content regularly, you know how critical I am to their defence

Boubacar Kamara's injury was a massive blow for them

Since December, they are ranked 17th for xG conceded

Since this calendar year, they are...

@BenCrellin ... ranked 18th (!)

Only Manchester United and Luton Town fare worse than them in this period

1.93 xG conceded per game means they allow a huge volume of dangerous shooting opportunities from the central areas

Then there's Tottenham

In 2024, so the last 14 games, they...

@BenCrellin ... have a similar xGC per 90 minutes as Newcastle

Both Villa and Spurs have an excellent shot-stopper in the goal, but it's not enough to not target them

🔹 Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m)

Juicy DGW35, 2 more fixtures than most of the other teams, West Ham in GW36

Oh, and there's...

@BenCrellin ... nobody else worth it from the CHE team

If you're on the wildcard, picking Jackson is one of the more straightforward decisions to make

He's cheap and should be provided with enough chances to convert some

🔹 Malo Gusto (£4.3m), Djordje Petrovic (£4.6m)

Gusto, wait...

@BenCrellin ... for more information, and pull the trigger when the time is right

Be it this week or in GW36

He's one of the best PL fullbacks, has a great offensive potential, and is an excellent option in the season run-in

Regarding Petrovic, check my latest newsletter, where I...

@BenCrellin ... assessed some of the most popular goalkeepers for the GW35 Wildcard

Ok, let's proceed to Spurs

Their remaining fixtures are much, much worse

Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool are 3 best Premier League defences

And attacks

Chelsea are slightly above-average

But...

@BenCrellin ... as Spur's DGW37 includes Burnley at home, and they will finish the season with Sheffield Utd., their offensive players are still a fine choice

Let's not forget we are talking about one of the best PL attacks in terms of quality and volume of created chances

Heung-Min Son...

@BenCrellin ... (£9.8m) can have his moments of brilliance against each of the opponents mentioned above

But what's the ideal pairing? (I wouldn't go for the defensive triple-up)

Look, I'm not elite in predicting xMins

So Maddison's and Johnson's EV might be very similar

But in the...

@BenCrellin ... vacuum, Johnson's is much higher

If I were playing the wildcard this week, I'd prefer him

Why?

Ok, here's some stats:

❗ This calendar year, he has the 3rd-highest xGI, just behind Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne

In the same period, he records 3rd-highest xG, just...

@BenCrellin ... behind Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak

With almost 2 shots, 0.42 xG, and 0.23 xA per game over the whole season, he's so dangerous

In 2024 alone, it's a whopping 0.62 xG and 0.27 xA

While Maddison costs £7.8m, Brennan is £2m cheaper

Immense value, and with 4 GWs left...

@BenCrellin ... it's a good time to chase the upside

Pedro Porro (£5.8m) - it might seem a bit counter-intuitive given the quality of opponents they'll face, but nevertheless, a fine pick in the whole horizon of all 4 GWs

Anyway, I'm ok with Spurs double-up, triple-up might be too much

@BenCrellin 🔶 Newcastle, Gordon, and Isak

I don't care they are poor defensively

Newcastle in the season run-in will do to you what Crystal Palace players did in the DGW34

I briefly mentioned Alexander Isak (£8.1m) in the previous section, and needless to say, he should be one of your...

@BenCrellin ... transfer targets

There simply isn't a single argument against it, as the potential to go big is massive

Now, you know what will follow next

Even with the midfield full of great options, my Anthony Gordon (£6.2m) propaganda will go on

He's constantly driving the...

@BenCrellin ... ball into dangerous areas, and can translate his fantastic movement into a substantial final product, both in terms of shots and final passes

His xG is essentially the same as that of Palmer, Foden, or Saka

And look at the schedule: SHU, bur, BHA, mun, bre

Both he and...

@BenCrellin ... Isak can haul in any of these fixtures

What about defenders?

Stating that they are poor defensively was a bit dramatic, as they are getting better lately

In this calendar year, they are ranked 9th-best for xGC, which isn't bad considering what kind of opponents await...

@BenCrellin ... them

There's a decent chance of both clean sheets and attacking returns, plus they are priced quite well

Dan Burn (£4.5m) and Fabian Schär (£5.7m) are both fine options

@BenCrellin 🔶 What to do with Haaland and Salah?

With so little portion of the season left (and composition of doubles), we are in this weird place when it's acceptable to go without both renowned premiums

Erling Haaland has been suffering from muscular problems, and at the time of...

@BenCrellin ... writing this, Pep still didn't offer a timeline for his return

And the reality is that you don't want to deal with xMins headaches in this part of the season

It's very convenient to create a City triple-up without Haaland, plus there are several good FWD alternatives...

@BenCrellin ... from other teams

So it all comes down to the information we'll have available

If declared fit, then this is not up for discussion

As for Salah, I have no issues with his recent performances whatsoever, as his lack of returns is blown out of proportion

FPL classic when...

@BenCrellin ... someone dares not to convert his chances for some time

I wouldn't be surprised if he averages 10 points per game in the next four games (whu, TOT, avl, WOL)

WH and Villa games are that I fear the most

But I can understand he facilitates high-EV moves in your team

So...

@BenCrellin ... if it makes sense, definitely go for it

However, if you are stuck with him for one more GW, it's not a disaster at all

@BenCrellin 🔶 Rapid fire questions

Let's end this week's preview with a fast-paced summary of other important topics:

🔹 Who to captain?

The Chelsea section says it all, Cole Palmer is my number-one choice

Son - not that far behind

🔹 Who are the best midfield players I didn't mention?

@BenCrellin Phil Foden and Alejandro Garnacho

🔹 Who are the best single gameweek players to own?

Arsenal's defence. Other than that, I would focus on DGW picks, as you want to have ideally 15 (sensible) doublers for your GW37 bench boost

@BenCrellin That's a wrap!

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