It's easy to overlook the consequences of the transition of Russia's economy towards a war mode, coupled with a controlled deprivatization trend, on the long-term structure of Russia's elites and its political system. This is a strategic shift, which exceeds the scope of the war.
This means, even if the war against Ukraine were to end tomorrow, with all the Western security guarantees in place and on the current lines of conflict, Russia simply cannot snap back to the previous political balance of power and the level of trade with the democratic world.
It is not a matter of detente or international relations at all. Russia has fundamentally changed and shaped into a different political and economic entity during this war. One that is bent on closing its gates for outside influence and malicious in its foreign strategy.
This is the Russia in which the security apparatus completely dominates all spheres of life. Consequently, this is the Russia the West will have to contend with. It is a weaker and a more unstable foe than the USSR, but, in nature, more unpredictable and aggressive.
It's important to understand that the USSR was never a military dictatorship and that the security services were used as a tool of repression by the political class, but didn't rule the country. The Soviet political class was robust and in charge.
Today's Russia is effectively being administered by its security apparatus, the military being their weaker counterpart.
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