The largest:
• $PYTH - $1.26B May 20
• $SUI - $1.01B May 3
• $AVAX - $334M May 22
• $MEME - $147M May 3
Others:
• $DYDX - $73M May 1
• $APT - $103M May 12
• $NGL - $21M May 13
• $SEI - $75M May 15
• $STRK - $82M May 15
• $UNI - $67M May 16
• $ARB - $105M May 16
• $LMWR - $58M May 16
• $IMX - $55M May 17
• $ACE - $17M May 18
• $MANTA - $25M May 18
• $MERL - $83M May 19
• $ALT - $40M May 25
• $AXL - $30M May 27
💡Some Insights ⬇️
◢ @PythNetwork - $PYTH - $1.26B - May 20
$PYTH is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing unlocks in the month ahead.
A substantial 141% of the current market cap will be unlocked, with a focus on ecosystem development and rewards.
The $PYTH staking feature has already led to airdrops from various projects. If the price reacts to the unlock, it could present a favorable entry point for acquiring airdrops and profiting from the coin itself.
However, if there's an overall market drop beforehand, the unlock may not impact the price significantly.
My strategy would involve buying $PYTH and staking 50% of the tokens. Once the price doubles, I would sell the unstaked 50%, keeping the remaining coins in staking for additional income through airdrops.
This plan is based on the fact that $PYTH won't undergo its next unlock until 2025.
◢ @Starknet - $STRK - $82M - May 15
All tokens from the unlock will be allocated to investors and early contributors.
I anticipate that L1 and L2 blockchains will perform well during the alt season, as they are clearer for major retail, along with memes. Blockchain is blockchain.
I believe holding onto Starknet for the long term might not be advisable due to its massive FDV. It could be seen as an opportunity to enter the alt season with significant volume.
Expect price manipulation similar to what occurred with $APT.
◢ @MerlinLayer2 - $MERL - $83M - May 19
I discussed earlier why Merlin is a good project and expressed my interest in buying its tokens at a more favorable price point.
Think $MERL has the potential to demonstrate power during the upcoming altcoin season due to:
- Huge TVL
- Strong backing from major investors
- Well-designed tokenomics featuring linear vesting
This project has the potential to be the next $STX.
Although the current price is on a sharp decline, this is a common occurrence. As I don't have any allocations or free tokens and I'm not an early investor.
If the price responds to the unlock, I may consider buying more aggressively.
Overall, the altseason seems imminent. We might be on the brink of a sudden shake-up to shed excess baggage, or the market could sharply pivot due to negative news, as is often the case.
➜
It's good to have positions in alts in case of a rapid increase and stablecoins in case of another drop.
🧵 We need to start considering our future paths and contemplate where we'll generate wealth.
I've been saying for a while: Crypto, in the long run, probably just becomes the plumbing — the backend for a world where AI runs the front.
That's why I'm starting to delve into AI
Not just as a hype cycle. But as something inevitable.
Agents, autonomous services, decentralized compute — all of it needs rails.
And crypto’s got them.
But recognizing that is one thing. Positioning for it is another.
And right now, if you want to be early on the next wave of AI x crypto — not just blindly aping the same old tokens — you have to track the macro.
Because the real moves are being made way above our heads. ⬇️
◢ Take @nvidia
They just announced plans to bring AI supercomputer manufacturing back to the U.S. — $500B worth of production over 4 years, with fabs in Arizona, Dallas, and Houston. Foxconn, Wistron, TSMC — all onboard.
This wasn’t a flex. It was a survival move.
We’re watching U.S.–China tensions escalate in real-time. On Saturday: “We’re exempting chips from tariffs.” By Tuesday: “We’re banning sales of chips to China.”
Nvidia confirmed the U.S. government has indefinitely postponed their ability to sell H20 chips to China — costing them an estimated $5.5B in Q1 alone. Their stock dropped 6% after hours.
Every drop in this cycle, people start comparing it to past cycles.
I think this is a total mistake that will eventually zero out your deposit.
And here's why 🧵
Before the last Halving, bull cycles followed a familiar script:
➜ Bitcoin halving → liquidity injection → altcoin rally
➜ Retail FOMO at the peak
➜ Clear narratives: ICOs (2017), DeFi/NFTs (2021)
➜ Fed policy & global markets still mattered, but not as much
➜ Hype-driven pumps, but no deep institutional involvement
➜ Exchanges dominated: Binance, FTX, and Coinbase were the gateways to crypto.
Every cycle felt independent, driven by crypto-native factors. The market had its own internal logic, where the right narratives and tokenomics fueled exponential growth.
Crypto was more isolated from traditional finance, and retail had a bigger influence on market moves.
Now, the landscape is different:
➜ Crypto is tied to global liquidity like never before
➜ Institutions are in—ETFs, RWAs, AI projects, but retail isn’t
➜ Memecoins dominate, but utility adoption lags
➜ Political & macro events (elections, interest rates) shake the market harder than before
➜ No clear leading narrative — fragmented trends instead
Crypto is no longer its own playground. Traditional finance, politics, and macroeconomic forces are now deeply intertwined with the market.
This means bigger players, but also more unpredictable moves. The old playbook doesn’t work when institutions, regulations, and global liquidity dictate the game.
Here, I've listed factors that concern me and may suggest a peak in the cycle (upper chart in the picture above).
- Record-High Crypto Market Cap: In January 2025, the crypto market reached a cap of $3.76 trillion, driven by pro-crypto U.S. policies, which may indicate an overheated market.
- Bitcoin's Dominance Over Altcoins: Despite expectations for an "altcoin season," BTC continues to outperform major altcoins, indicating a concentration of investment in Bitcoin.
- High Percentage of Bitcoin in Profit: Over 90% of Bitcoin holdings are currently in profit, a level historically associated with market peaks.
- High Institutional Profits from Crypto: Hedge funds and institutions have reported substantial gains from cryptocurrency investments, reflecting significant capital inflows that often precede market corrections.
- Intensified Media Coverage and Public Interest: The recent surge in crypto prices has led to heightened media coverage and public interest, often observed during market peaks.
- High Retail Investor Participation: A significant influx of new, inexperienced investors is entering the market, often a sign of a market top.
- Unrealistic Price Predictions: Analysts and influencers are making overly optimistic forecasts without substantial basis.
- Predictions of Imminent Market Peak: Industry figures like Arthur Hayes, predict that the crypto market will peak by March 2025, driven by factors such as dollar liquidity.
- Elevated Market Valuations: Analysts project that Bitcoin could reach valuations as high as $400,000 under favorable policies from the current U.S. administration, reflecting heightened market optimism.
- Analysts Signaling Market Top: BCA Research, previously bullish on cryptocurrencies, is now cautioning about a potential market peak due to factors like the proliferation of memecoins and excessive bullish sentiment.
● The Second Scenario - the Beginning of Altseason
Here, I've highlighted factors that suggest the real altseason is yet to come (refer to the bottom chart in the picture above).
- Altcoin Season Index Signals: The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 crypto excluding BTC, has recently entered the 80-100% band. This range often supports momentum-based strategies, indicating a favorable environment for altcoins.
- Altcoins Outperforming Bitcoin: In December 2024, major altcoins like $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP experienced significant price increases, outperforming $BTC and suggesting a shift in investor focus toward altcoins.
- Institutional Expansion into Altcoins: Charles Schwab has appointed a new Head of Digital Assets, signaling plans to expand crypto offerings beyond Bitcoin, including spot trading for various altcoins.
- Surge in Altcoin Trading Volumes: Platforms like Robinhood have reported significant increases in cryptocurrency trading volumes, with altcoins contributing substantially to this growth.
- Advancements in DeFi: DeFi platforms are experiencing increased adoption, with TVL in BTC-based DeFi expected to nearly double to over $100 billion in 2025, indicating a growing interest in altcoin-based financial services.
- Stable Bitcoin Prices: Bitcoin's price stability around $96,857.13 may encourage investors to explore altcoins for higher returns.
- Positive Regulatory Developments: Regulatory bodies are adopting more crypto-friendly stances, potentially fostering altcoin growth.