This is the first cycle where retail is actually paying attention to unlocks. This is a good thing, and I hope they take this into account when making investment decisions. GCR literally had to gather a gang of neets to find this information last cycle.
A few points of perspective on this information:
1. This list is incomplete and likely only captures 1/3-1/4 of all FDV unlocks coming this/next year. Worldcoin for example would roughly double the FDV to be unlocked. Lets call total unlocks 300-400bn.
2. Only about 1/2 of the FDV is owned by investors/team on average. So lets say $200-300bn of potential sell pressure, which is a lot. Not all tokens will be sold, but a lot will, and that will weigh on all of them as a group as investors start to fear unlocks. My expectation is that they will sell off uniformly but a few will emerge as category winners that are decacorn+ outcomes after they bottom. You can either choose to see the failures or do the work to find the potential winners, in my opinion hand-wringing over the former is not valuable work.
3. Just like 2022, where DeFi unlocks drove selloffs but then the alt L1s started to move, the meta will move to coins with no unlocks (wave 2 coins like bera, monad, etc), or coins that are through their unlock schedules
A few points of perspective on this information:
1. This list is incomplete and likely only captures 1/3-1/4 of all FDV unlocks coming this/next year. Worldcoin for example would roughly double the FDV to be unlocked. Lets call total unlocks 300-400bn.
2. Only about 1/2 of the FDV is owned by investors/team on average. So lets say $200-300bn of potential sell pressure, which is a lot. Not all tokens will be sold, but a lot will, and that will weigh on all of them as a group as investors start to fear unlocks. My expectation is that they will sell off uniformly but a few will emerge as category winners that are decacorn+ outcomes after they bottom. You can either choose to see the failures or do the work to find the potential winners, in my opinion hand-wringing over the former is not valuable work.
3. Just like 2022, where DeFi unlocks drove selloffs but then the alt L1s started to move, the meta will move to coins with no unlocks (wave 2 coins like bera, monad, etc), or coins that are through their unlock schedules
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