Debunking the popular theory that Nikki Haley's relatively substantial support in GOP primaries has been due to Dem leaning voters flooding the GOP primary vote, thereby suggesting that Haley's strong showing isn't actually a bad sign for Trump...
We recently analyzed the GOP primary individual turnout history in the NC primary. Haley won 23% there. Looking at the unaffiliated voters who comprised one-third of the GOP vote, there is no indication that these voters were Dems seeking to stop Trump.
They were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg GOPs). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Inds vs 97% of GOPs), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind GOP primary voters vs 50% of GOPs).
Every indicator suggests these Independents voting in GOP primaries are more likely GOP voters. They just don't like Trump. If I were the Biden campaign, I would be investing in outreach to any Ind who voted in a GOP primary (or if I was the @ProjectLincoln).
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
