Kevin A. Bryan Profile picture
May 2 22 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A short note on the encampment that's now set up here in Toronto @UofT. I snuck into it today (I told them I was a fellow comrade who'd stepped out to get a cig - not exactly crack security). I think it's only fair to talk to the folks and see what's going on before judging. 1/x
I did start recording video, just to ensure nothing was misinterpeted, when a fellow wanted to remove me from the site. I'm not trying to embarrass these kids, so won't post it, but suffice to say what I'm saying below is documented. 2/x
First fact is that strict majority of people I talked to are neither students nor affiliated with our university. We have something like 100k students and tons of staff, so it's not hard to find them! But yeah, "student encampment" is just objectively wrong as a description. 3/x
They took down one piece of fencing on the quad where convocation events happen next week, and have a handful of (masked) people controlling entry. I walked around the "sign-in" and no one noticed for ten minutes or so. But it's *not* free entry. 4/x
The "security" and "spokesperson" both explicitly said that if you don't support the collective's view on Palestine, you aren't welcome and they will remove you. Actually, I was specifically told to leave now or "it would become more uncomfortable". 5/x
When I said, what do you mean, he tried to play it off as that it would be "embarassing". I did see a large group (50 people or so) surround a different woman who'd gotten in and start chanting "all Zionists are evil". 6/x
In terms of posters, honestly, it was just a general melange of far left policy. There was a speaker who was at the Wet'suwet'en protest (long story, but "traditional leaders" vs. elected leaders of a Nation in BC on resource dev), a Congo flag, a climate sign, etc. 7/x
One (white) person explained to me it was a black & brown led group. I responded that visibly the protesters are fairly obviously overwhelmingly white people. I was told this was only because non-white people don't feel safe joining but that they all support it. 8/x
I talked to another protestor about how, safety-wise, surely they must understand that a giant "Honor to the Martyrs" poster is interpreted as pro-violence given how that term is used in the Gaza conflict. She insisted martyr and intifada aren't violent terms. 9/x
I asked "why protest here", esp. to folks who had no personal link to U of T. They said because U of T won't divest. I said U of T has no such investments other than index funds and the like, same as that owned by the Canada Pension Plan or Teacher's Pension or their parents 10/x
Response was always "we agree, everyone's complicit in genocide". At one point, group I was talking to argued that Kenya sending peacekeeping troops to Haiti was colonial violence. Given language, I suspect IMT played a role in organizing: 11/x en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati…
I discussed alternatives with some of the groups. Free speech, right to protest, Chicago principles: all great! But banning people who don't agree with you, by force, from a common space on campus, esp. when graduation for poor HS class of 2020 is next week, isn't speech. 12/x
The university response right now is basically "let it peter out". They have campus security in case a fight breaks out. But they're still complicit in allowing the "entry gate" - an older woman w/ a Marxist shirt claimed to be the "group liasion with the school". 13/x
I don't really get why we'd allow this. All have the right to protest! Free country. But letting a group of masked (non)students control entry to quad, letting them turn it into a campground with tents: you can just take down the tents and entry gate w/o touching anyone 14/x
That said, implicit threat that "it would be uncomfortable" for me if I didn't leave is also not great. They knew I was a professor, to be clear. Obviously no real danger - physically, protestors were more Trotsky than Stalin. But allowing entry gate permits this behavior. 15/x
I was also asked "how can you care more about convocation than death". I responded, I care a lot - what do you think about the madness in El Fasher? No one had any idea what that was. Honestly, it's mostly a young, not-very-informed group, who flit from protest to protest. 16/x
Again, I'm not going to post my video. I didn't even take a phone out until a kid made an implicit threat. But I do think @UofT needs to understand what's actually happening, and the embarassing @utfaculty letter implying faculty support this needs to be retracted. 17/x
As in Ukraine, Yemen, Sudan & Burma, I hope we reach a peaceful solution soon in Gaza, that allows human flourishing. And I hope our students, Muslim & Jewish, can feel safe & productive on campus. But don't forget: purpose of the university is education, for all, equally. 18/18
(Oh, last thing: to make as clear as possible that this isn't a "student protest" and shouldn't be called as such, I am 40 and no one batted an eye about my age when I was there. Important to get this right @TorontoStar @globeandmail @CBCNews @RadioCanadaInfo @TheVarsity)
@TorontoStar @globeandmail @CBCNews @RadioCanadaInfo @TheVarsity (And, last last thing: Just want to be really clear that I didn't take a census. All I know directly is, majority I talked to weren't U of T affiliated. We also know that the protest was partly organized by USW. Beyond that, you'll have to do some journalism yourself!)
@mattd_econ Point is that just because it's on campus, it isn't necessarily student protest. In some of the arrest records in the US, similarly strict majorities of people arrested weren't students (13/36 at UNC, ~30% at Columbia were students). So not sure why you'd find this strange.
@R__Hauser @UofT (Caveat - see Guillermo's data below, as "70%" is out of date. Columbia was closer to 30% unaffiliated. Across universities where we have data, it's a range, roughly between 30 and 70% students, with city campuses leaning toward the latter. The UNC data is correct.)

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More from @Afinetheorem

Apr 13
A few notes on Japan where I was last week. Quite fascinating economically. I have been many times over two decades rural and urban. 1) There are so so many foreign tourists. Regional Asian tourism + weak yen + collapse in tourism to China + was closed for multiple years. 1/x
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3) The reason for this is that Japan just objectively isn't rich. Equalized median income PPP is half the US, lower than Spain or Estonia, 30% below S Korea. A 30 something engineer in a major city might make 5m yen, or 33k USD pretax. 3/x
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In line with @tylercowen's interesting article on fertility, and the China news, I really think "people alive today will see peak worldwide population, and we have likely passed the peak absolute births per year ever in the 2010s" is a massively underrated economic phenomenon.
Those of us in the US/Canada/Oz/NZ really misunderstand how much of the developed world has little, no, or negative population growth. *Every* developed country aside from Israel is below replacement fertility. *No* country has ever gone under then gone back up above.
The EU grew 1.5%, incl. immigration, over past *decade* and 2.3% in prior decade. China's pop fell 2m last year & will fall >40m in next decade. Japan's pop is back to where it was in 1992. S Kor. already has falling pop and a fertility rate that will halve it in one generation.
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Briefly, how do LLMs work? They take huge training set of text (~the whole internet), then train attention model to predict next words following given user text. That is, if you say "The sun ", next words are likely "is", "rises", "emits". If "Hemingway's The Sun", likely "Also".
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I'd go further than this. Reason economics is most successful social science is b/c of very high level of methodological rigor. Rigor, not hagiography/rhetoric, tells us what counts as logical argument or valid stats method. Other social sciences filled with "intuitive" nonsense.
When I talk to grad students about theory (& same is true of statistical inference), I point out that I've never written a theory paper where my initial conjecture was fully true. Good rhetorician can convince you of many things. A proper proof cuts through morass of imprecision.
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