Jack Detsch Profile picture
May 3 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The U.S. military needs an industrial backbone to function–rocket motors, ball bearings, munitions–to shoot missiles and counter drones

That backbone just got a major boost from the national security supplemental

Here are 4 big bottlenecks the $20B injection will tackle (🧵) Image
1️⃣ SOLID ROCKET MOTORS

One is the production of solid rocket motors used for everything from Javelin anti-tank weapons that can hit a tank from a little over a mile away to intercontinental ballistic missiles that can propel warheads across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans if a U.S. war with Russia or China ever went nuclear.

(U.S. Navy Photo/Released)Image
Aerojet Rocketdyne, which was recently bought out by L3Harris Technologies for nearly $5 billion, was one of only a few suppliers.

But the supplemental gives several billions of dollars for companies, such as Orbital ATK, to expand their solid rocket motor facilities.
And it provides money from the Defense Production Act—the same law that Washington used to force U.S. manufacturers to produce more masks, gloves, and face shields during the coronavirus pandemic—to build out a second tier of rocket motor suppliers.
Those include X-Bow Systems in Texas; Ursa Major in Colorado; and Adranos in Mississippi, which was recently bought out by defense technology company Anduril.

The idea is to fast-track work that wasn’t going to be done until at least 2026, if not later.
2️⃣  CRUISE MISSILE MOTORS

There’s also about $100 million to help Williams, one of the only American makers of cruise missile motors, speed up production in Michigan.

Some uses:
• Long-range anti-ship missile that might one day help Taiwan fend off Chinese landings
• Armor-piercing joint air-to-surface standoff missile
• Tomahawk land attack missile that is the U.S. Navy’s weapon of choice
• The Harpoon missile that the Ukrainians have used in the Black Sea.

(U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Eric Garst/Released)Image
3️⃣ COUNTER DRONE

There’s a ton of counter-drone money, about $600 million, that will go toward Coyotes, a small drone capable of intercepting other drones.

There is also money for Roadrunners, an air defense munition that takes off vertically—just like the F-35 fighter jet variant flown by the U.S. Marines.

(U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Jeffery Foster)Image
4️⃣ ODDS AND ENDS

There’s also money to build factories for ball bearings, printed circuit boards, and other subcomponents for the $311 billion that the Pentagon wants to spend in the upcoming year to develop new weapons. Processor assemblies, castings, forgings, microelectronics, and seekers for munitions have been major bottlenecks.
But there are recruitment and attrition problems almost across the board, from welders at shipyards to rocket engineers, a generational problem that might need vocational-training fixes at the high school level and up.

(First photo was by Dori Whipple)
Here is more from @ForeignPolicy on the Nat Sec Supp
foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/01/con…

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More from @JackDetsch

May 5
The U.S. may finally have the tool that it needs to help Taiwan turn itself into a “porcupine” to deter China: the national security supplemental.

While the $2B national security aid package doesn’t legislate what weapons will be heading over, here are 3 ways how it might be a game-changer.

(🧵)Image
1⃣ Asymmetric Defense

U.S. officials have long urged Taiwan to buy an asymmetric toolkit – mostly munitions that could sink Chinese boats before they land.

Taiwan has instead mostly opted for a more conventional diet of submarines, fighter jets, and tanks.
With Taiwan getting US military aid instead of just being another weapons buyer, the Biden admin – or any US admin – has much more say.

“The US has more say—a lot more say—in how the money will be spent because it’s US taxpayer money,” said Ivan Kanapathy, a fmr NSC official.
Read 9 tweets
May 4
As it looks toward the largest industrial buildup since the Cold War, the US is torn between short & long-term needs.

Should the US buy more 155mm artillery ammo or double down on future weapons?

Here are 4 factors that will influence the buildup of 🇺🇸 defense industry (🧵) Image
1⃣ The Ukraine Factor

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is still going to be a major factor in setting requirements.

“We’re going to be selling 155 [mm] like a drunken sailor for a few years,” said Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.Image
Other weapons used in the early days of Ukraine’s defense of Kyiv are likely to hit a plateau in production.

Those include
• Javelin
• HIMARS
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles

The Pentagon sent to Ukraine in large numbers early in the war and are also included in the supplemental, but which have taken on a secondary role as the fight.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 24
Ukraine is still likely to be outgunned by Russia for much of the rest of 2024–that's even with $60B in U.S. military aid.

U.S. and Europe are only just starting to ramp up artillery production.

Here are 3 questions that will define the industrial war in 2024.

(🧵)Image
1⃣ Can the US and Europe restock fast enough?

The expectation is that Biden admin will spend much of 2024 rebuilding US stockpiles.

US Army aims to produce 100,000 artillery rounds / month by end 2025.

Most of the EU's target to get 1.4m shells into 🇺🇦 hands won’t get there until the end of 2024.Image
So Ukraine’s partners on the continent are searching for suppliers outside of Europe to find enough artillery to keep Kyiv’s guns hot.

Czech Republic appears to have sourced enough $$$ to buy 500,000 rounds of 155mm.

Refurbishing old ammo is about 30% cheaper than buying new shells, but much of it comes from fmr Soviet satellites.

Here @antti_ruokonen's excellent @lawfare analysis on the trendlines for 155mm artillery.Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 18
If you're looking for one symbol of Sweden's 200-year path through neutrality to NATO membership, there's no better place to look than Musko Naval Base, the underground naval facility carved out of a mountainside.

Let's take a look. (THREAD 🧵)

(DoD photo / Chad J. McNeeley) Image
Sweden stayed out of both world wars. And after the dust settled in World War II and the Iron Curtain came down, neighbors Norway, Iceland, and Denmark joined NATO. Sweden didn’t.

In secret, though, the Swedes were building up their defenses.
In 1950, with the U.S. and the Soviets racing to test the first hydrogen bomb, the Swedish government began blasting 1.5 million tons of rock out of a mountainside on the island of Musko to build a top-secret underground naval base.

It was about 25 miles south of Stockholm.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 16
If Russia's war in Ukraine has taught the U.S. Army anything about the future of warfare, it’s this:

Just look up.

@ForeignPolicy got a chance to travel to Ft. Irwin, one of the Army's biggest training bases, where soldiers face off against 105 drone swarms that can attack all at once.

Here are 3 things the Army is doing learn to fight and defend in a world of drone swarms.

PHOTO: SPC. JAARON TOLLEY/U.S. ARMYImage
1️⃣ TURN OFF YOUR PHONE: The cell phone is the new cigarette in the foxhole.

To survive on the modern battlefield, soldiers are having to make themselves smaller and smaller—almost invisible.

Loitering munitions can wait over the battlefield for hours, ready to dive if an operator senses the faintest twitch.
Soldiers are listening for drones and coming up with battle drills to defend against them. And U.S. troops will probably have to turn off their iPhones and Androids.

“We’ve shown soldiers, ‘hey, your cell phone can get you killed,’” said Maj. Gen. Curt Taylor, the training center commander.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 13
NEW: The US Army will be forced to cut its artillery production target by over 25% if Congress can't pass the $106B national security supplemental.

The Army would top out at 72,000 rounds/month by end of 2025 with no bill, far short of their 100K target.
foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/13/uni…
Here's how US artillery production is faring:

Now: 28,000 rounds/month
Sept 2024: 57,000 rounds/month
Sept 2025: 72,000 rounds/month
* Dec 2025: 100,000 rounds/month

* without supplemental, US artillery production would plateau at 72,000 rounds/month

Image: US Army budget Image
A little more than $3 billion of the total $106 billion supplemental request bill—which has been debated over in Congress for nearly 5 months, although it passed in the Senate in mid-February—would go toward buying more 155 mm artillery shells & building new production facilities
Read 6 tweets

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