DC's unelected prosecutor:
- Declined to prosecute 1/3 of gun cases
- Dropped 37% of charged cases
- Reduced 50% of convictions to just misdemeanors, usually by offering generous "golden ticket" plea bargains
If we want to tackle gun violence, we need a new U.S. Attorney. (1/
I have refrained from calling for USA Graves' removal until now. This new gun prosecution data was the breaking point.
Compared to 2018, the USAO is securing less than half as many felony convictions for Carrying a Pistol Without a License.
This is a policy choice. (2/
The new data is from the excellent DC Sentencing Commission Annual Report. Their work is rarely covered by DC media, which has helped the USAO erode prosecution in DC without accountability. (3/
The report gives an overview of prosecution and sentencing trends:
- The USAO finally started charging more felonies; but only AFTER public pressure
- Felony convictions actually FELL as the USAO pled down more cases to misdemeanors
- Judges follow the sentencing guidelines (4/
Despite the USAO's boasts that they are winning convictions with "thousands of years" of prison sentences, they are actually securing 36% fewer felony counts than just a few years ago.
The USAO consistently plays up large-sounding numbers out of context to spin the media. (5/
The drop in prosecutions is across all categories, with an especially sharp collapse in drug convictions. This has been great for DC's violent gangs/crews who are responsible for many shootings and are "heavily engaged in narcotics sales." (6/
The only thing that minimized the decrease in weapons convictions is that MPD has dramatically increased their arrests for gun possession.
The USAO has undermined this effort by declining, dropping and pleading down far more cases than just a few years ago. This is a choice. (7/
Not only is the USAO's gun prosecution "filter" worse than it was a few years ago, it's worse than even "progressive" prosecutors like the DA in Manhattan.
The USAO is choosing to decline to prosecute & offer more generous plea bargains far more often than other prosecutors. (8/
When the USAO pleads down a felony gun possession charge to a misdemeanor it often involves NO jail time like this example: (9/
Here's someone caught with a de facto machine gun (a pistol with a Glock converter that flips it to fully automatic) where the USAO proactively offered a misdemeanor-only plea bargain: (10/
It's also deeply disturbing that the USAO has a much higher prosecution rate for gun possession in DC's wealthiest wards. One wonders if they also go easier in terms of dropping and pleading down cases in DC's poorer wards as well. (11/
"Gun prosecution data" isn't some esoteric topic...it's directly related to the single biggest crime problem in DC today.
Guns are used in 84% of homicides and shootings are by far the greatest source of terror in DC. This matters. (12/
The USAO's lax enforcement of DC's gun laws have made us safer in 3 major ways: (13/
This dysfunctional dynamic is exactly how the average homicide suspect in DC has been arrested ~10 times but only 40% have ever served a prison sentence.
The USAO is functionally giving these suspects 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th chances. (14/
Everyone involved in fighting gun violence knows the USAO is a big part of the problem.
DC has been fighting gun violence with one hand tied behind our back because the USAO declined, dropped or pled down 2,262 gun cases over the last 2 years. (15/
The USAO's steady erosion of felony prosecutions correlates extremely well with DC's rising homicide rate. "is the USAO vigorously prosecuting felonies?" is a strangely under-covered explanation for DC's murder problem. (16/
On its own, the USAO’s failure to vigorously prosecute gun crime at a time of unacceptable levels of gun violence should be a scandal.
What adds insult to injury is the USAO’s practice of gaslighting the general public about the issue. (17/
It’s shocking that the man who has overseen the USAO hitting record-low prosecution rates & mass plea bargaining of gun crimes down to misdemeanors has the gall to blame other people for the “myth which has grown in recent years that there are no consequences for anything.” (18/
USA Graves has been able to get away with this "we're all trying to find the guy who did this" act because the media largely doesn't cover the USAO not doing their job.
There are no press conferences & the data is hidden in lengthy reports that few people read. (19/
The broken situation at the USAO is undermining even the DOJ's "surge" of resources to fight violent crime in DC.
Because the "screeners" at the USAO continue to decline to prosecute viable cases a ton of MPD and Federal law enforcement effort goes to waste. (20/
USA Graves has had 2 years to fix the USAO's problems. In his first year the prosecution rate hit a record low & he only increased prosecutions under pressure.
Then the USAO got even more lenient with gun case plea bargains when no one was looking. It's time for a change. (21
Leaders at the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Biden administration should be horrified by this.
USA Graves is not uniquely needed in this role and the DOJ has the options, the authority and a multitude of easy cover stories to make a change. (22/
How to get from public fury over prosecutions to change at DC’s unelected prosecutor office is difficult but we need to try.
This isn’t an organizing blog but here are some basic steps people can take to demand a new U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia:
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🚨Confirmed: The suspect who allegedly shot a woman in the head was already charged with a gun felony at the time of the shooting & had been released pretrial by the judge.
Security footage & his GPS monitor show him at the scene of the shooting & firing his 2nd illegal gun. (1/
We had a lot of attention on one pretrial release case in DC but this one allegedly resulted in a woman being shot in the head & suffering brain damage.
Remember that DC law has a default assumption of pretrial detention for these cases...the judge ruled differently. (2/
The judge found "a set of conditions to ensure the safety of the community." And "Mr. Israel was released on electronic monitoring"
As we can see he had no trouble getting another illegal gun & GPS monitoring was apparently no deterrent to him allegedly shooting at someone. (3/
If the police in DC catch you with a machine gun you have a good chance of the United States Attorney's Office letting you plead guilty to misdemeanor charges & walking away with no jail time.
Then the USAO will whine about "the system" to pass the blame for gun violence. (1/
This plea deal happened in FEBRUARY, after the Department of Justice announced a "surge" of resources to fight violent crime in DC.
The USAO seems more concerned with clearing out its caseload & blaming others than incapacitating dangerous suspects. (2/
Statistically far more people arrested with illegal guns in DC walk away with no prison time than those that face any time in prison.
92% of felony cases in DC are resolved via plea bargains...the USAO is signing off on this situation & then complaining about sentences. (3/
At the start of 2023 DC was at record lows for arrests, prosecutions & detention.
Chief Smith got MPD to make more arrests than they had in years.
Public pressure dragged the USAO to prosecute more cases.
This correlated with big drops in crime in the 2nd half of 2023. (1/
Today's post goes through how on almost every enforcement metric DC was at rock bottom by the beginning of 2023; driven by decreases in arrests and massive decreases in USAO prosecutions.
But there was no political penalty for this deterioration for Mayor Bowser or the USAO. (2/
This deterioration in enforcement meant that DC was uniquely vulnerable to any spike in crime in 2023: (3/
- The average DC homicide suspect has been arrested ~12 times prior, to include violent & gun possession offenses
- Because of USAO non-prosecution, dismissals & plea bargains they only have ~3.1 convictions
- The USAO only secures prior felony convictions against 54% of them (1/
This latest Gun Violence Analysis is well-done & repeats many of the key lessons of the (sadly unheeded) 2021 analysis.
Specifically, many of DC's murderers are being caught for crimes BEFORE the murder & the system is failing to stop them. (2/
The arrest volumes show that MPD is trying to disrupt these highest-risk criminals from engaging in further violence.
But the huge attrition from arrests to actual prosecutions to felony convictions is sadly a very familiar story for people following the USAO in DC. (3/
MPD's Detective pipeline is important. A law enforcement source told me to check this out & compared to NYPD our police department in DC:
- Allocates a much smaller % of officers to detective work
- Solves a much smaller % of crimes
This correlation deserves some attention. (1/
There is a TON of research that shows that allocating more detective resources to crimes increases clearance rates (i.e. solves more crimes). This is intuitive but the data supports the common sense intuition. (2/
We also see some correlation in DC's own data. Over the past few years MPD has shifted $ (which usually correlates with officer hours) out of the Homicide Branch (even when the overall MPD budget grew) & this coincides with decreasing clearance rates. (3/
The local Baltimore prosecutor (who unlike DC can charge most adult crimes) also has the USAO as an additional tool/deterrent.
In Baltimore criminals are "terrified of the U.S. Attorney's office." In DC they laugh in cops' faces about getting no-papered by the USAO. (2.
Baltimore is benefitting from broad US Marshals support. This operation arrested 226 fugitives in Baltimore while the much-hyped "Operation Trident" in DC resulted in 48 arrests.
Baltimore, unlike DC, also has a Sheriff for "regular" warrants. (3/