Thread by @LordTylerWard

1. If this admin wants to take our industry down via lawfare, the end game is that the SEC can lose every securities case only to see the treasury sanction individuals, companies, funds & enterprises for KYC/AML + separate IRS action.

Leaving America doesn’t help.. see Ver/CZ.

2. The FBI recently signaled to US users to avoid unregistered money transmitter services.

This would be the signaling you’d see if they had a feeling the securities approach wasn’t working.

But the SEC did the job of exhausting our industry of cash to fight round 2 & 3.

3. Other signaling would be drastically expanding the IRS.

20k agents? 80k agents?

It’s irrelevant if our understanding of how staking is taxed is challenged at the individual level. Most crypto attorneys aren’t tax esq. Normies can’t afford them.

amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/01/11…

4. We may say “well this has no meat so we would just fight it as an industry. However, CZ who was never American didn’t want to fight the battle with US regulators.

He resigned from his company & is ultimately bending the knee by ceremoniously sitting through a prison stint.

5. If he was willing to go to a foreign prison in a country he has never been a resident, I’m sure there were assurances made on who took over Binance & how they plan to bend the knee ongoing.

This is ultimately more important than the symbolic prison term.

They got their way.

6. This can also include sanctions on companies who don’t bend the knee.

Before you say “well not everyone will comply the US isn’t that strong” remember that even neutral Switzerland sanctioned Russia and its oligarchs to comply with the US in a historical change of stance.

7. Round 3 (if it ever even gets there) can look like massive IRS investigations that work to slow the industry further. This may be step 2 in order of events.

This would individuals, companies, etc.

The most chilling part is users/mainstream/normies.

8. If users are attacked for crypto via IRS it will become viewed as a toxic asset. The mainstream isn’t here for our ideals they are here to make money.

If they think they’re going to get taxed into the ground or even sanctioned, we won’t ever have any users. They’ll avoid it.

9. Point here is the SEC never was the final boss if the administration is truly hostile to crypto or, worse, in a wartime scenario.

I’m not trying to FUD everyone’s bags vs. educate them on things I’ve learned from lobbyists and lawyers who aren’t industry cheerleaders.

10. So many will say this stuff could never happen. But the revelations from what Joe Lubin (a billionaire like CZ) is saying publicly about the SEC’s attack on Ethereum should cause pause to even industry cheerleaders.

Especially under the context the SEC isn’t the final boss.

11. Ultimately if Yellen won’t comply with Treasury sanctions she will be replaced on admin round 2.

If the IRS won’t comply their boss will be replaced in admin round 2. They just hired 80,000 armed agents. Warren has been looking for an army to fight crypto, that’s an army.

12. I see the chilling effect at the user level as being the most effective (think Limewire & stories of grandmothers whose grandkids used her computer getting FBI notices).

We don’t consume media this way much as a nation. It was mostly stomped out & we use censored platforms.

13. This isn’t the only area of concern or effectiveness.

New founders will avoid crypto & the rest will be under investigation.

New capital/funds will avoid crypto & the rest will be under investigation.

Large enterprises = ditto

Governments = ditto

14. I know nobody wants to admit I’m wrong here or this is some type of LARP but civil liberties groups have been fighting these chokepoint operations since the Biden administration which destroyed the gambling industry overnight.

It ultimately never stopped, it just paused.

15. I also see lawyers harping against lawfare in other areas of this administration only to see it do unprecedented legal things to stomp out both what they don’t like & dissent.

If you believe there is some “good guy” who cares about the constitution, I have bad news.

16. So yes this is a bear scenario. Yes this isn’t a good realization. It’s not fun to write so I’m sure it’s not fun to read.

But it’s likely not over even if Consensys, Coinbase, Robinhood, Uniswap, etc all win.

We haven’t even beat the first boss. There will be more.

17. Wo maybe I’m wrong. Maybe this is a LARP.

Be honest with yourself: what have you possibly seen over the past 3 years that makes you think they tuck their tails & accept defeat when how things are taxed and AML violations were always better arguments than “muh securities?”

18. And to the pearl clutching constitutionalists: what over the past 3 years makes you think this admin gives a single fuck about the constitution?

What makes you think they won’t go this route? Was it the signaling I discussed before?

Or are we pretending this can’t happen?

19. Sorry if this ruined anyone’s day. It’s still important to be prepared and educated as investors.

Sticking our heads in the sand isn’t going to save anyone.

I also don’t know enough about ALL the strings the US can pull in phases 4, 5 & 6.

I’m highlighting obvious ones.

20. Few typos above. Meant the Obama admin for the start of choke points. The gambling industry is back but it’s captured by the banking system now. Which is fine for banking. It’s probably not fine for crypto.

Also a few smaller typos- sorry it is Monday morning.

21. This is somewhat encompassed by things @twobitidiot talks about publicly.

He is in more closed doors convos than I am at this point & the fact he is ringing the alarm bell as one of the largest donors to political efforts + lobbying should give pause.

Along with Lubin.