qw Profile picture
May 8 2 tweets 1 min read Read on X
after spending more time digging into the 'chain abstraction' meta and the 'app chain' meta, im officially cosmos pilled.

chain abstraction: ibc is probably one of the best bridges out there. cheap, fast, and secure settlement. u dont need to understand the underlying tech to know this, u just need to use the product.

app chain: seeing the likes dydx and hyperliquid choosing cosmos over eth dramatically changed my priors. originally i thought dydx choosing cosmos was just a one off. but now with the likes of hyperliquid also going for cosmos its no longer a coincidence.

for some reason cosmos is well behind ethereum even tho their visions r converging. maybe what cosmos is lacking is a cult leader like vitalik and more vocal technical evangelists like mert.

in a parallel universe where vitalik didnt feel so jaded by btc maxis and start ethereum in 2014 cosmos wouldve won. history is path dependent etc etc.
i also think chain abstraction on cosmos will happen before chain abstraction ethereum thanks to ibc.

pay attention to @TailwindZone

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More from @QwQiao

Jan 6
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Arbitrum
Polygon
Optimism
Solana
Cosmos

Are the magnificent 7 ecosystems

that have crossed the chasm in terms strong organic developer ecosystem
Source: I spent probably 4 hours day in day out in the last 2-3 years talking to builders in the various ecosystems. At this point even without any hard data I have a pretty good internal “neural network” of where the strongest organic developer activity happens
The concrete implication of this list that I believe they have a very high chance of thriving beyond one cycle, whereas other ecosystems have a short window of opportunity (ie one cycle maybe) to prove themselves or fade into irrelevance
Read 6 tweets
Mar 22, 2023
It’s far easier to be Warren Buffet than Stan Druckenmiller.
Last couple of years, a whole generation of retail investors and entrepreneurs have been conditioned to obsess over macro. The reality is >99% don’t have any edge whatsoever in this game. And as a result it’s counterintuitive to let macro be a factor in their decision making.
This includes some of the most famous macro pundits on Twitter. They have no edge, and they know it. But they do it anyway because they know retail love it.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 5, 2022
1/ In my new article with @MohamedFFouda, we dive into proof of physical work (PoPW) networks.

We discuss the necessary characteristics of a good PoPW network, the current landscape, and a few startup ideas for aspiring founders.

medium.com/alliancedao/ho…
2/ We start by stating that the long-term goal for any PoPW network should be to become decentralized exchanges connecting service providers and service buyers.
3/ We posit that the following conditions must be met in order for such a network to succeed:

- Standardized and simple contribution
- Trusted oracles
- Minimal monopolistic tendencies
- Agile and conservative token design
Read 6 tweets
Nov 23, 2022
When the FTX News came out, it was 1) the SINGLE biggest collapse in history of crypto and 2) it caught EVERYONE off-guard. Yet the market was down only 20%.

That tells you about the market positioning, ie, market was already largely deleveraged and derisked.
In order for another event to cause the market to go down another 20%, that event needs to be 1) meaningfully bigger than FTX and 2) completely unexpected.

Virtually nothing satisfies these 2 conditions. Including Genesis.
Macro is a risk factor I’ve always been worried about. Still fully expect a major selloff next year which may drag crypto down. But that could very well be months+ out given CPI just started to cool down. Not to mention PA seems decorrelated suggesting macro folks had left.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8, 2022
Meta thoughts on the whole FTX drama:

- The crisis that FTX is going through is not one of insolvency, but one of potentially unrecoverable reputational damage.
- It's never a bad idea to diversify your funds across custodians.
- People are clearly still suffering from the 3AC/Celsius/Terra PTSD.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 8, 2022
Every time the government attacks us we realize that our system is only as decentralized its most centralized layers, so we need to decentralized the ENTIRE stack.
Today we learned that the stack includes 1) version control and 2) stablecoins.
When I wrote notion.so/alliancedao/Cr… I put "decentralization of all layers of the stack" as the very first section.

This is not a coincidence. This is the single most important value proposition of crypto.
Read 6 tweets

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