Thought I would summarise why there is so much excitement in the space weather community right now. There’s a monstrous sunspot group on the Sun that’s massive enough to be visible to the naked eye (please use eclipse glasses) 🌞 👓 (1/n)
This sunspot group has been continuously producing strong flares (GOES M & X) and a multitude of solar eruptions (CMEs) for which Earth is in the firing line. (2/n)
In fact it has fired 5+ coronal mass ejections in quick succession that are Earth-directed. While the flares lead to radio blackouts, CMEs can cause problems for our satellites and power grids but also dazzling displays of auroras. (3/n)
We can model these CMEs to try and predict their arrival time at Earth. Currently we think they should arrive this evening and over the weekend (10/11 May). Therefore a G4 (severe geomagnetic storm) warning has been issued - the first time since 2005 (4/n)
As these are predictions are based on models we don’t know exactly how this will play out however anyone at mid/high latitudes should definitely watch out for the Aurora this weekend! 🌞 💨 💨 💨 💨 💨 🌍 🛰️ 🚨 (5/n)
It also looks like there is an ongoing solar energetic particle event. These are problematic as the particles arrive so quickly and the radiation can not only affect satellites but crewed space flight too (6/n)
Aurora in Loch Lomond (7/n)
Whilst I was busy taking photos last night we hit G5 (extreme geomagnetic storm) conditions - the first time since the 2003 “Halloween” storms. It’s worth watching out for Aurora this evening too 🤞 (8/n)
A lot of people have asked how big the group of sunspots is compared to Earth, hopefully this will give you an idea. ~14x🌎
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AR 3848 produced an X flare in the early hours along with a very fast Earth-directed solar eruption whose shock has also resulted in an ongoing solar energetic particle event! The fast CME should arrive tomorrow, hence a rare G4 watch has been issued #spaceweather #aurora (1/n)👇
Active region 3848 is what we call a beta-gamma-delta region. This just means that the magnetic field has a very complicated structure, prime for producing eruptive events. The image shows the surface magnetic field of the region with positive/negative field in white/black. (2/n)
Just before 2am, this region produced an X class flare. During solar flares a huge amount of energy is released across the electromagnetic spectrum on timescales of minutes to hours. An X-class is the strongest class on a logarithmic scale. Flares can cause radio blackouts (3/n)