Narrative matters in crypto, and we all love to track narratives.
Before we dive into the juicy bits, here’s a short of recap of @_kaitoai's narrative mindshare methodology. To put it simply, our narrative mindshare indicator measures the social dominance of narrative relative (%) to the overall market. The denominator consists of folks in the CT circle from our proprietary search engine + social graph data, and the numerator is the social mentions of every narrative. This offers the most quantifiable and hollistic view of the narratives at any point of the market cycle.
Let’s take a look at some of the narrative mindshare changes since the start of the year:
⁃ AI narrative still remains as one of the strongest narratives in Q1-Q2 of 2024. In 2023, AI was also a clear dominant narrative taking up 30-50% of mindshare most of 2023. This is a signal that the AI vertical is here to stay, given the parabolic growth of the entire AI space (both within and outside of just the crypto bubble)
⁃ SocialFi had the biggest + change in mindshare since Jan 24', spurred by the revival of Friendtech, introduction of Fantasytop, and other notable projects
⁃ Memes (evidently) took the lead as one of the strongest narratives in Q1-Q2 of 2024
⁃ BRC20 experienced the largest drawdown in mindshare, likely due to narrative exhaustion post-Bitcoin halving, lack of recent interest in Ordinals/ Runes. Worth noting that BRC20s as a vertical took up a significant portion of total mindshare exiting 2023
⁃ DeSoc is also positioned to be a strong contender in terms of mindshare dominance - with Farcaster, Friendtech, DeSo, and others, making waves
⁃ GameFi had a fall-out in narrative mindshare compared to the start of the year - lots of chatter about how it takes one game to revive the entire GameFi sector, we have yet to see any big gaming launches year-to-date
⁃ The LSD + LRT narrative both took a bit of a hit compared to earlier in the year, post EIGEN token announcement, and majority of the bigger LRT protocols like Renzo, Etherfi, and co having ended their points program/ S1-S2 campaigns
Given how the current narratives unfolded this year, what’s in the horizon?
⁃ AI + memes have consistently been a dominant narrative since the start of the year. Question is whether mindshare continues to hold up for both of these sectors. For AI, the thesis is quite clear as there are plenty of external factors like OpenAI’s iterative rollouts of their Chatgpt models, talks of AGI, NVIDA, and other factors that could be bullish for the AI vertical throughout the year. Memes also generally have no ceiling as it is completely subjected to market trends and culture
⁃ DePIN as a vertical has also been growing steadily this year, quite similar to AI where we are continuing to see interesting experiments in this sector
⁃ Talks of ETFs will pick up again as Ethereum ETFs continue to be the talk of the town
⁃ ZK is also another under the radar narrative that hasn’t truly picked up in adoption yet, but might be poised for a comeback with zkSync’s TGE (hopefully soon)
Narrative Mindshare now vs the start of the year:
Before we dive into the juicy bits, here’s a short of recap of @_kaitoai's narrative mindshare methodology. To put it simply, our narrative mindshare indicator measures the social dominance of narrative relative (%) to the overall market. The denominator consists of folks in the CT circle from our proprietary search engine + social graph data, and the numerator is the social mentions of every narrative. This offers the most quantifiable and hollistic view of the narratives at any point of the market cycle.
Let’s take a look at some of the narrative mindshare changes since the start of the year:
⁃ AI narrative still remains as one of the strongest narratives in Q1-Q2 of 2024. In 2023, AI was also a clear dominant narrative taking up 30-50% of mindshare most of 2023. This is a signal that the AI vertical is here to stay, given the parabolic growth of the entire AI space (both within and outside of just the crypto bubble)
⁃ SocialFi had the biggest + change in mindshare since Jan 24', spurred by the revival of Friendtech, introduction of Fantasytop, and other notable projects
⁃ Memes (evidently) took the lead as one of the strongest narratives in Q1-Q2 of 2024
⁃ BRC20 experienced the largest drawdown in mindshare, likely due to narrative exhaustion post-Bitcoin halving, lack of recent interest in Ordinals/ Runes. Worth noting that BRC20s as a vertical took up a significant portion of total mindshare exiting 2023
⁃ DeSoc is also positioned to be a strong contender in terms of mindshare dominance - with Farcaster, Friendtech, DeSo, and others, making waves
⁃ GameFi had a fall-out in narrative mindshare compared to the start of the year - lots of chatter about how it takes one game to revive the entire GameFi sector, we have yet to see any big gaming launches year-to-date
⁃ The LSD + LRT narrative both took a bit of a hit compared to earlier in the year, post EIGEN token announcement, and majority of the bigger LRT protocols like Renzo, Etherfi, and co having ended their points program/ S1-S2 campaigns
Given how the current narratives unfolded this year, what’s in the horizon?
⁃ AI + memes have consistently been a dominant narrative since the start of the year. Question is whether mindshare continues to hold up for both of these sectors. For AI, the thesis is quite clear as there are plenty of external factors like OpenAI’s iterative rollouts of their Chatgpt models, talks of AGI, NVIDA, and other factors that could be bullish for the AI vertical throughout the year. Memes also generally have no ceiling as it is completely subjected to market trends and culture
⁃ DePIN as a vertical has also been growing steadily this year, quite similar to AI where we are continuing to see interesting experiments in this sector
⁃ Talks of ETFs will pick up again as Ethereum ETFs continue to be the talk of the town
⁃ ZK is also another under the radar narrative that hasn’t truly picked up in adoption yet, but might be poised for a comeback with zkSync’s TGE (hopefully soon)
Narrative Mindshare now vs the start of the year:
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