Thread by @RnaudBertrand

Wow, China and Russia issued an extraordinary joint statement yesterday, with almost 8,000 words when translated into English, and in many ways more important than the famous "no limits" partnership statement in February 2022.

Here are the points that stood out for me.

BUILDING A NEW WORLD ORDER
The statement says that it is an "objective factor" that "the status and strength of emerging major countries and regions in the 'Global South' [are] continuously increasing", and that "the trend of world multipolarity [is] accelerating". This in turn "accelerates the redistribution of development potential, resources, and opportunities in a direction favorable to emerging markets and developing countries, promoting the democratization of international relations and international fairness and justice".

They point out that "countries that adhere to hegemonism and power politics are contrary to this trend, attempting to replace and subvert the international order based on international law with a so-called 'rules-based order'".

Security-wise, the statement says that "both sides believe that the fate of the peoples of all countries is interconnected, and no country should seek its own security at the expense of others' security. Both sides express concern about the current international and regional security challenges and point out that in the current geopolitical context, it is necessary to explore the establishment of a sustainable security system in the Eurasian space based on the principle of equal and indivisible security."

They go on to say that China and Russia "will fully tap the potential of bilateral relations" in order to "promote the realization of an equal and orderly multipolar world and the democratization of international relations, and gather strength to build a just and reasonable multipolar world".

As for the vision of this world order these 2 principles seem to be the foundational ones:
1) An order with no "neo-colonialism and hegemonism" of any kind: "All countries have the right to independently choose their development models and political, economic, and social systems based on their national conditions and people's will, oppose interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries, oppose unilateral sanctions and 'long-arm jurisdiction' without international law basis or UN Security Council authorization, and oppose drawing ideological lines. Both sides pointed out that neo-colonialism and hegemonism are completely contrary to the trend of the times, and called for equal dialogue, the development of partnerships, and the promotion of exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations."
2) An order based on the UN Charter: "Both sides will continue to firmly defend the achievements of World War II and the post-war world order established by the UN Charter"

EXTREMELY STRONG CONDEMNATION OF THE US
This condemnation starts with the paragraph highlighted above that "countries that adhere to hegemonism and power politics are contrary to [the trend towards a multipolar world order]", and the statement also condemns the fact that these "countries" (i.e. mostly the US) are "attempting to replace and subvert the international order based on international law with a so-called 'rules-based order'".

They also write that "both sides call on relevant countries and organizations to stop taking confrontational policies and interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, undermining the existing security architecture, creating 'small yards with high fences' among countries, provoking regional tensions, and advocating for camp confrontation."

They further say that "both sides oppose the hegemonic actions of the United States to change the balance of power in the Northeast Asia region by expanding its military presence and forming military blocs. The US, with its Cold War mentality and camp confrontation model, puts 'small group' security above regional security and stability, endangering the security of all countries in the region. The US should stop such actions."

On top of that the statement speaks of "serious concern about the United States' attempts to undermine strategic stability to maintain its absolute military superiority, including building a global missile defense system and deploying missile defense systems around the world and in space, strengthening the ability to disable the opponent's military actions with precision non-nuclear weapons and 'decapitation' strikes, enhancing NATO's 'nuclear sharing' arrangements in Europe and providing 'extended deterrence' to specific allies, constructing infrastructure in the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone treaty member Australia that could be used to support US and UK nuclear forces, engaging in US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation, and implementing plans to deploy and provide land-based intermediate-range and short-range missiles to allies in the Asia-Pacific and Europe."

The statement also condemns "the United States' unconstructive and hostile 'dual containment' policy towards China and Russia": "The United States' actions of conducting joint exercises with its allies ostensibly aimed at China and Russia and taking steps to deploy land-based intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region have raised serious concerns for both sides. The United States claims it will continue these practices with the ultimate goal of establishing routine missile deployments worldwide. Both sides strongly condemn these actions, which are extremely destabilizing to the region and pose a direct security threat to China and Russia, and will strengthen coordination and cooperation to respond to the United States' unconstructive and hostile 'dual containment' policy towards China and Russia."

On Asia-Pacific specifically they write that "both sides oppose the creation of exclusive and closed group structures in the Asia-Pacific region, especially military alliances targeting any third party. Both sides point out that the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and NATO's attempts to take destructive actions in the Asia-Pacific region have negative impacts on the peace and stability of the region."

They also "demand that the United States refrain from engaging in any biological military activities that threaten the security of other countries and regions" and they oppose the "use [of] outer space for armed confrontation and oppose the implementation of security policies and activities aimed at achieving military advantage and defining outer space as a 'combat domain.'"

Lastly the statement condemns "the US and its allies' deterrent actions in the military field, provoking confrontation with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, potentially leading to armed conflict", and asks that "the United States and NATO, as the responsible parties for the 20-year invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, should not attempt to deploy military facilities in Afghanistan and its surrounding areas again but should bear primary responsibility for Afghanistan's current economic and livelihood difficulties, bear the main costs of Afghanistan's reconstruction, and take all necessary measures to unfreeze Afghanistan's national assets."

ENORMOUS EXPANSION OF CHINA-RUSSIA COLLABORATION
This will be my last point, the statement has an immense list - dozens and dozens of items - of expanded cooperation fields between both countries.

These are some of the most important ones:
- Military cooperation: "[both sides] will further deepen military mutual trust and cooperation, expand the scale of joint training activities, regularly organize joint maritime and air patrols, strengthen coordination and cooperation within bilateral and multilateral frameworks, and continuously improve the ability and level of jointly responding to risks and challenges."
- More trade, mutual investments and help each other economic development: "continuously expand the scale of bilateral trade", "continuously improve the level of investment cooperation between the two countries", and "jointly develop advanced industries, strengthen technical and production cooperation, including in the civil aviation manufacturing industry, shipbuilding industry, automobile manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry, electronics industry, metallurgical industry, iron ore mining industry, chemical industry, and forest industry"
- Cooperation on energy: "consolidate the strategic cooperation in energy between China and Russia and achieve high-level development, ensuring the economic and energy security of the two countries. Strive to ensure the stability and sustainability of the international energy market, and maintain the stability and resilience of the global energy industry chain and supply chain." Also nuclear energy: "deepen cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy based on the experience of successful and ongoing projects, including thermonuclear fusion, fast neutron reactors, and closed nuclear fuel cycles"
- Promote each others' currencies and financial infrastructure: "Increase the proportion of local currency in bilateral trade, financing, and other economic activities. Improve the financial infrastructure of the two countries, smooth the settlement channels between the two countries' business entities, strengthen regulatory cooperation in the banking and insurance industries of China and Russia, promote the sound development of banks and insurance institutions established in each other's countries, encourage two-way investment, and issue bonds in the financial markets of each other's countries in accordance with market principles."
- Deep education and scientific cooperation: "promote the expansion and improvement of quality in mutual study abroad programs, advance Chinese language teaching in Russia and Russian language teaching in China, encourage educational institutions to expand exchanges, cooperation in running schools, conduct high-level talent joint training and scientific research, support cooperation in basic research fields between universities, support activities of alliances of similar universities and high schools, and deepen cooperation in vocational and digital education"
- Cooperation in the media and shaping public opinions: "Strengthen media exchanges between the two countries, promote mutual visits at various levels, support pragmatic and professional dialogues, actively carry out high-quality content cooperation, deeply explore the cooperation potential of new media and new technologies in the field of mass media, objectively and comprehensively report major global events, and spread true information in the international public opinion field."
- Cooperation within global institutions: "deepen bilateral cooperation [at] the UN General Assembly and the Security Council", "supporting the role of the World Health Organization", "strengthen cooperation within the WTO framework", "cooperation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)", "uphold the BRICS spirit, enhance the BRICS mechanism's voice in international affairs and agenda", etc.

I could go on and on, the scale of the cooperation they detail is absolutely breathtaking, both countries are going all in with each other.

This statement is absolutely extraordinary and will likely shape the world for decades to come. We now have Russia and China explicitly stating they're all in with each other to bring about a new "equal and orderly multipolar world and the democratization of international relations", and put an end to US hegemonic behavior. No more pretend, it's happening.

That's the link to the statement, by the way (in Chinese, I couldn't find a version in English): chinanews.com.cn/gn/2024/05-16/…

On Ukraine, this part of the statement may be significant: "Russia positively evaluates China's objective and fair position on the Ukraine issue and agrees with the view that the crisis must be resolved on the basis of full compliance with the UN Charter."

Because "full compliance with the UN Charter" would imply respecting Article 2 on territorial integrity...

Let's see... Apparently Xi and Putin had an "in-depth exchange of views on the Ukraine crisis" with Xi quoted as wanting "an early political settlement of the Ukraine issue" so we'll likely see some initiatives around this.

The statement also says that "both sides believe that to steadily resolve the Ukraine crisis, the root causes of the crisis must be eliminated, the principle of indivisible security must be upheld, and the reasonable security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken into account."

"The root causes", from China and Russia's perspective, of course being NATO expansion and the attempt to transform Ukraine into a western bulwark against Russia. Does this mean that if these "root causes" are "eliminated" (presumably meaning that Ukraine becomes neutral), then Russia would agree to withdraw its troops, i.e. an agreement similar to the one that was almost signed in Istanbul in March 2022? I don't know, again let's see...