I have repeatedly pointed out that the modern Russian military industry has little continuity with the Soviet one. Destroyed in the 1990s, it was effectively created anew in the Putin's era. Still, it may sound too abstract, so I will zoom in on one specific example:
Stankomash
Located in Chelyabink, Stankomash industrial park hosts major producers for the nuclear, shipbuilding, oil & gas and energy industries. It also produces weaponry, including mine trawls and artillery ammunition (based on the open sources)
All under the umbrella of Konar company
Some examples of the Stankomash manufacture. These photos well illustrate the philosophy of Soviet/Russian dual use industry. In the peace time, you focus primarily on civilian products, in the war time you convert it all to the production of weaponry.
Now the neat part is. The dual use purpose of this plant remains pronouncedly Soviet. But the plant itself is not Soviet. It's Russian. It's all created anew. Having exactly 0% continuity with the old plant build by Joseph Stalin, new plant was 100% built anew by Vladimir Putin.
The old, original Stankomash was launched in 1935. Officially framed as a machine tool producer, it was of course a dual use facility that played major role in the WWII as the manufacturer of tanks & artillery ammo.
Dual Use = Civilian -> Military (when the necessity arises)
In the post-war era, the Stankomash plant grew as a producer of broad range of manufacturing, ranging from the construction steel frames to meteorological rockets. The 50-th anniversary of Stankomash celebrated in 1985 would be long remembered as the apogee of this plant.
With the fall of the USSR in 1991, Soviet manufacturing sector collapsed and the Stankomash collapsed as well. It quickly degraded losing its production base, workforce, technology. By the early 2010s, the old Soviet plant did not exist anymore. It was a bunch of ruins.
In 2014, the ruins of Stankomash were acquired by a quasi private (assume it's all government money) Konar group for around 3 million USD. Between 2015 and 2020 Konar reconstructed the Stankomash, effectively creating it anew, from zero.
How Stankomash looked in 2017 vs now
Question: Ok, but how do you even "revive" a manufacturing plant from this point? You did not just lose the machines. You have lost the workforce, skills, technology. All you have is a concrete frame of questionable quality.
Answer: You hire someone else to do it *all* for you.
As Russia lost the knowledge necessary for operating, let alone recreating old Soviet production chains, it necessarily had to commission someone knew how to do it. So, the new Putin's Stankomash was build as a set of turnkey projects by the Western (primarily Italian) companies
Let's have a look at who built the specific production facilities of Stankomash:
“BVK” Foundry - Gruppo Cividale S.p.A. (Italy)
“Konar - Cimolai” - Cimolai S.p.A. (Italy)
“Transneft Oil Pumps” - Pompe S.p.A. (Italy)
“Kornet” - Nickelage line provided by Kanigen (Japan)
Konar-Orion - Orion S.p.A. (Шефдн)
Russian Electric Engines - Nidec ASI S.P.A. (Italy, Japan)
NB: It's all framed as the "Joint Ventures" between Konar and the respective Italian companies. In reality, JV = turnkey project fully done by Italians from the beginning to the end
See the Konar Group website with the list of Joint Ventures residing at Stankomash. Most of them are openly called the "turnkey projects" (под ключ), fully conducted by the respective Italian producers. Russia basically buy the entire plant + technology + know hows for money.
The list of Stankomash’s key technological partners.
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Notice, it's all Europe + a bit of Japan, but mostly just Italy. That's who created Stankomash, for the most part.
Now let's have a look at who provided machinery (as opposed to the ready solutions). For the most part, it's all Europe, with only a minor inclusion of Japan.
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Now let's have a look onto the factory floor. Heavy, foundry & forging equipment seems to be all Italian. Makes perfect sense, as Italians have basically built it all, provided skills and technology.
Danieli Foundry Line 🇮🇹
Vecchiato Forging Workshop 🇮🇹
Once again, it's not about "buying a machine". It's about buying the entire solution + technology, from the beginning to the end. Zoom in, onto the Vecchiato workshop.
Waldrich Coburg 🇩🇪 Speedram 🇮🇹 Toshulin 🇨🇿
Again, all Western Europe with only rare inclusions of Japan/Taiwan
With the start of this war, Stankomash has been refocused on military production. Not only does it produce weaponry (ammunition & mine trawls, based on the open sources). It also supports other military plants, conducting casting, forging, machining etc. operations for them.
So what does the Stankomash story tell us? First, it highlights how little continuity there is between Soviet and Russian military production. For the most part, Putin did not increase the military production capacities. He created them anew, after the fall and decline of 1990s.
Second, it shows that the restoration of Russian dual use sector amounted to a series of turnkey projects conducted by the Old Industrial Powers. In this particular case of Stankomash - Italy
NB: Italy is a global power in metallurgy and Stankomash is largely a metallurgy plant
Third. The brilliant absence of China. I could find only one example of what seems to be Chinese equipment - a Tongda TD-3700 X-Ray Diffractometer. That's it. Apparently, China has played zero or nearly zero role in creation of this plant.
It's all Europe + a bit of Japan.
POV: You are a power-hungry dictator. Whom will you hire to build you the heavy industry?
We do not know anything about the global economy. We do not understand how it is structured. When you really need the heavy industry (for war), you do not go to the Great Manufacturing Superpower of China. You go to the toy, funny, irrelevant countries of Europe.
In-credible
Now that is because those toy, irrelevant countries are, in fact, the Old Industrial Powers. And the Old Industrial Powers control the key, strategic industries that constitute the fabric of our industrial civilisation.
They produce the means of production, for everyone.
The end
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What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.
One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg
And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Global politics are usually framed in terms of kindergarten discourse (“good guys” vs “bad guys”) with an implication that you must provide “good guys” with boundless and unconditional support
BUT
Unconditional support is extremely corrupting, and turns the best of the best into the really nasty guys, and relatively fast
Part of the reason is that neither “bad” nor “good” guys are in fact homogenous, and present a spectrum of opinions and personalities. Which means that all of your designated “good guys” include a fair share of really, really nasty guys, almost by definition.
Purely good movements do not really exist
That is a major reason why limitless, unconditional, unquestioning support causes such a profound corrupting effect upon the very best movement. First, because that movement is not all
that purely good as you imagine (neither movement is),
Let's have a look at these four guys. Everything about them seems to be different. Religion. Ideology. Political regime. And yet, there is a common denominator uniting all:
Xi - 71 years old
Putin - 72 years old
Trump - 79 years old
Khamenei - 86 years old
Irrespectively of their political, ideological, religious and whatever differences, Russia, China, the United States, Iran are all governed by the old. Whatever regime, whatever government they have, it is the septuagenarians and octogenarians who have the final saying in it.
This fact is more consequential than it seems. To explain why, let me introduce the following idea:
Every society is a multiracial society, for every generation is a new race
Although we tend to imagine them as cohesive, all these countries are multigenerational -> multiracial
In 1927, when Trotsky was being expelled from the Boslhevik Party, the atmosphere was very and very heated. One cavalry commander met Stalin at the stairs and threatened to cut off his ears. He even pretended he is unsheathing he sabre to proceed
Stalin shut up and said nothing
Like obviously, everyone around could see Stalin is super angry. But he still said nothing and did nothing
Which brings us to an important point:
Nobody becomes powerful accidentally
If Joseph Stalin seized the absolute control over the Communist Party, and the Soviet Union, the most plausible explanation is that Joseph Stalin is exercising some extremely rare virtues, that almost nobody on the planet Earth is capable of
Highly virtuous man, almost to the impossible level
Growing up in Russia in the 1990s, I used to put America on a pedestal. It was not so much a conscious decision, as the admission of an objective fact of reality. It was the country of future, the country thinking about the future, and marching into the future.
And nothing reflected this better than the seething hatred it got from Russia, a country stuck in the past, whose imagination was fully preoccupied with the injuries of yesterday, and the phantasies of terrible revenge, usually in the form of nuclear strike.
Which, of course, projected weakness rather than strength
We will make a huuuuuuge bomb, and drop it onto your heads, and turn you into the radioactive dust, and you will die in agony, and we will be laughing and clapping our hands