I have repeatedly pointed out that the modern Russian military industry has little continuity with the Soviet one. Destroyed in the 1990s, it was effectively created anew in the Putin's era. Still, it may sound too abstract, so I will zoom in on one specific example:
Stankomash
Located in Chelyabink, Stankomash industrial park hosts major producers for the nuclear, shipbuilding, oil & gas and energy industries. It also produces weaponry, including mine trawls and artillery ammunition (based on the open sources)
All under the umbrella of Konar company
Some examples of the Stankomash manufacture. These photos well illustrate the philosophy of Soviet/Russian dual use industry. In the peace time, you focus primarily on civilian products, in the war time you convert it all to the production of weaponry.
Now the neat part is. The dual use purpose of this plant remains pronouncedly Soviet. But the plant itself is not Soviet. It's Russian. It's all created anew. Having exactly 0% continuity with the old plant build by Joseph Stalin, new plant was 100% built anew by Vladimir Putin.
The old, original Stankomash was launched in 1935. Officially framed as a machine tool producer, it was of course a dual use facility that played major role in the WWII as the manufacturer of tanks & artillery ammo.
Dual Use = Civilian -> Military (when the necessity arises)
In the post-war era, the Stankomash plant grew as a producer of broad range of manufacturing, ranging from the construction steel frames to meteorological rockets. The 50-th anniversary of Stankomash celebrated in 1985 would be long remembered as the apogee of this plant.
With the fall of the USSR in 1991, Soviet manufacturing sector collapsed and the Stankomash collapsed as well. It quickly degraded losing its production base, workforce, technology. By the early 2010s, the old Soviet plant did not exist anymore. It was a bunch of ruins.
In 2014, the ruins of Stankomash were acquired by a quasi private (assume it's all government money) Konar group for around 3 million USD. Between 2015 and 2020 Konar reconstructed the Stankomash, effectively creating it anew, from zero.
How Stankomash looked in 2017 vs now
Question: Ok, but how do you even "revive" a manufacturing plant from this point? You did not just lose the machines. You have lost the workforce, skills, technology. All you have is a concrete frame of questionable quality.
Answer: You hire someone else to do it *all* for you.
As Russia lost the knowledge necessary for operating, let alone recreating old Soviet production chains, it necessarily had to commission someone knew how to do it. So, the new Putin's Stankomash was build as a set of turnkey projects by the Western (primarily Italian) companies
Let's have a look at who built the specific production facilities of Stankomash:
“BVK” Foundry - Gruppo Cividale S.p.A. (Italy)
“Konar - Cimolai” - Cimolai S.p.A. (Italy)
“Transneft Oil Pumps” - Pompe S.p.A. (Italy)
“Kornet” - Nickelage line provided by Kanigen (Japan)
Konar-Orion - Orion S.p.A. (Шефдн)
Russian Electric Engines - Nidec ASI S.P.A. (Italy, Japan)
NB: It's all framed as the "Joint Ventures" between Konar and the respective Italian companies. In reality, JV = turnkey project fully done by Italians from the beginning to the end
See the Konar Group website with the list of Joint Ventures residing at Stankomash. Most of them are openly called the "turnkey projects" (под ключ), fully conducted by the respective Italian producers. Russia basically buy the entire plant + technology + know hows for money.
The list of Stankomash’s key technological partners.
🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇯🇵🇳🇱🇫🇮🇪🇸🇬🇧
Notice, it's all Europe + a bit of Japan, but mostly just Italy. That's who created Stankomash, for the most part.
Now let's have a look at who provided machinery (as opposed to the ready solutions). For the most part, it's all Europe, with only a minor inclusion of Japan.
🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇨🇭🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯🇵🇪🇸🇪🇸🇸🇮🇸🇮🇫🇷🇫🇷🇱🇹🇱🇹🇨🇿🇨🇿
🇬🇧🇳🇱🇳🇴🇦🇹
Now let's have a look onto the factory floor. Heavy, foundry & forging equipment seems to be all Italian. Makes perfect sense, as Italians have basically built it all, provided skills and technology.
Danieli Foundry Line 🇮🇹
Vecchiato Forging Workshop 🇮🇹
Once again, it's not about "buying a machine". It's about buying the entire solution + technology, from the beginning to the end. Zoom in, onto the Vecchiato workshop.
Waldrich Coburg 🇩🇪 Speedram 🇮🇹 Toshulin 🇨🇿
Again, all Western Europe with only rare inclusions of Japan/Taiwan
With the start of this war, Stankomash has been refocused on military production. Not only does it produce weaponry (ammunition & mine trawls, based on the open sources). It also supports other military plants, conducting casting, forging, machining etc. operations for them.
So what does the Stankomash story tell us? First, it highlights how little continuity there is between Soviet and Russian military production. For the most part, Putin did not increase the military production capacities. He created them anew, after the fall and decline of 1990s.
Second, it shows that the restoration of Russian dual use sector amounted to a series of turnkey projects conducted by the Old Industrial Powers. In this particular case of Stankomash - Italy
NB: Italy is a global power in metallurgy and Stankomash is largely a metallurgy plant
Third. The brilliant absence of China. I could find only one example of what seems to be Chinese equipment - a Tongda TD-3700 X-Ray Diffractometer. That's it. Apparently, China has played zero or nearly zero role in creation of this plant.
It's all Europe + a bit of Japan.
POV: You are a power-hungry dictator. Whom will you hire to build you the heavy industry?
We do not know anything about the global economy. We do not understand how it is structured. When you really need the heavy industry (for war), you do not go to the Great Manufacturing Superpower of China. You go to the toy, funny, irrelevant countries of Europe.
In-credible
Now that is because those toy, irrelevant countries are, in fact, the Old Industrial Powers. And the Old Industrial Powers control the key, strategic industries that constitute the fabric of our industrial civilisation.
They produce the means of production, for everyone.
The end
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What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.