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Garett Jones Profile picture
@GarettJones
May 20, 2024 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
"The probability that an older, high-income, college-educated White man identifies a true story is 18 percentage points higher..."

Lead article, April 2024 American Economic Review, Angelucci (MIT) and Prat (Columbia).

Also this: Image
Note the innocuous abstract, prudent in our era.

On issues that challenge The Narrative, candour is often found deeper within: Image

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More from @GarettJones

Garett Jones Profile picture
Feb 3
"What about the Italians?" is a mic-drop line in most debates over immigrant assimilation.

But to a social scientist, there are no mic-drop lines, just chances to have Claude Code ask the General Social Survey about Scandinavian-American and Italian-American criminality:🧵 Image
These are self-reports of whether a person has ever been arrested, convicted, or either in jail or prison. Ancestry is self-reported as well.

Arrest question asked many times.

"Scandinavians" includes Norwegians, Swedes, and Danes. [Finns are Nordic but not Scandinavian.] Image
In the early 20C literature-- as with the 2010-era debate over Mexican-American crime-- age was alleged to be the only difference between Scandinavians and Italians, hiding their true equality, and artificially boosting Italian criminality.

So I used age controls: same story. Image
Read 4 tweets
Garett Jones Profile picture
Dec 11, 2025
When Alex Nowrasteh of the Cato Institute asserts that I'm "confused" about jargon in the trust literature, is he correct?

Of course not. Bayesians, update accordingly.

New post at Heterodox STEM, generously hosted by @DorianAbbot, Uslaner and Keefer cameos.

Short🧵: Image
In a new response to my Heterodox STEM post, Nowrasteh says "Garett cites older papers that used inconsistent terminology."

But Keefer, a founder of trust+growth regressions, uses interpersonal trust as a synonym for generalized trust in 2022 and 2025.Image
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I like being ecumenical about definitions whenever possible. Academic jargon varies by field, even subfield.

Just look at how macroeconomists and finance experts use the same word: Investment.

But when someone claims I'm "confused," it's valuable to respond.
Read 7 tweets
Garett Jones Profile picture
Jul 17, 2025
In answer to the @ATabarrok question, "Why aren't we treating AI as a Sputnik moment," I offered changing voter demographics as a key reason.

America added a lot of new voters after 1957!

Tabarrok at @margrev today cited a paper on rising zero-sum thinking, which finds a... Image
@ATabarrok @MargRev B/W zero-sum worldview gap is bigger than the M/F gap, about the same as the strong Dem/strong GOP gap: Image
@ATabarrok @MargRev Source:

nber.org/papers/w31688
Read 4 tweets
Garett Jones Profile picture
May 29, 2025
In January, S&P gave a low grade to Ethena, the “synthetic dollar.”

It said Ethena’s delta-neutral approach was pretty risky.

Speaking for myself and not for @Bluechip_org, I agree, and I’ll explain in more detail here. Image
How does Ethena work?

Informally, it buys Ethereum as well as portfolio insurance on that Ethereum.

My claim is that good portfolio insurance is really expensive-- so expensive that on average it’ll be a money-loser.

I build my case in part on the “overpriced puts puzzle.” Image
But, you’ll say, Ethena has worked just fine so far!

That’s true, Ethena has worked out great for those who’ve held it, good for them. Nobody has lost a penny.

And it’s an innovative product whose creators have been clear about exactly what they are doing, honorable.
Read 14 tweets
Garett Jones Profile picture
Feb 18, 2025
The paper does not show foreigners commit crimes at the same rate as Germans

Instead, it claims to explain why foreigners commit crimes at higher rates than Germans.

So the title is the opposite of the truth.

Academics, please point out this error candidly, openly.
I hope @tylercowen & @ATabarrok will note the misinterpretation of multivariate regression in this paper.

And @mattyglesias could help the cause of improved empirical debates by pointing the difference between claiming something is false versus explaining why it's true.
This Reuters post about the study gets at part of the issue, what economists call overcontrol bias, what I've called an Everest Regression:

"Controlling for barometric pressue, Everest is the same altitude as Death Valley." Image
Read 9 tweets
Garett Jones Profile picture
Mar 18, 2024
In Ek's excellent new @JPolEcon piece on migrants to Sweden, he reports a "significant dispersion in human capital across countries [of origin] with a 90/10 percentile ratio of 3.2."

So, which are at the 90th percentile?

The ethics review board wouldn't let him tell us.
🧵: Image
The screenshot above is from his ReadMe file here, part of a ZIP that includes all of the replication data.

These words should be enough to find the files via a Google search:

"Replication Data for: Cultural Values and Productivity" Image
You can see the replication folder includes the cross-country data in an Excel file-- with countries listed by number, not name.

"FodelseLandnamn" translates to "Birth country name," so that might have been the one column Ek was required to change by the Lund ethics board.
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Read 7 tweets

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