“Gradually, then suddenly.”
A few thoughts on whether Benjamin Netanyahu might actually end up in the Hague for a war crimes trial, using the precedent of Slobodan Milošević's extradition there in 2001. I covered the former Yugoslavia back then and wrote a book about it.
A few thoughts on whether Benjamin Netanyahu might actually end up in the Hague for a war crimes trial, using the precedent of Slobodan Milošević's extradition there in 2001. I covered the former Yugoslavia back then and wrote a book about it.
Two key factors in Milošević's extradition. First, he had been ousted from power nine months before his extradition. Second, the White House pressured the new government in Belgrade to send him to the Hague -- economic aid was conditioned on it.
Another factor: Milošević was not popular. The wars he masterminded in Croatia, Bosnia & Kosovo eviscerated Serbia’s social and economic fabric. He was charmless. Netanyahu is similar on that score: despised by so many in Israel, he's its most unloved leader ever.
Summary: the extradition clock starts ticking in earnest not when Netanyahu is indicted -- so far, only a prosecutorial request for an arrest warrant -- but when he is removed from power. He won't be able to stave that off for long. Once he's out, Washington will be key.
Hemingway wrote that bankruptcy happens gradually, then suddenly. For Milošević, war crimes probes began in 1993 (Bosnia). First indictment in 1999 (Kosovo). Ousted in late 2000, he was arrested for corruption six months later. Less than 3 months after that, sent to the Hague.
Where the Serbia parallel wobbles is the relationship between the U.S. and Israel. Serbia was never a close U.S. ally. The carrot of economic aid worked because the stick of sanctions had been applied. The dynamic is far different with Israel, of course.
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