Quinn Thompson Profile picture
May 20 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The implications of the SEC's 180 degree pivot are impossible for the market to price over night. This may be the best day of news for crypto ever and its so good to see the industry's beloved torchbearer, @coinbase, stand to benefit the most.
1) Biggest risk to $COIN's business is the current SEC litigation which will likely be at worst softened, at best thrown out.
2) D's pivot to compete with R's means stablecoin bill is coming and $COIN is biggest public markets beneficiary of that + upcoming Circle IPO.
3) Retail already shown to be coming back (see recent activity in meme stocks) and this regulatory stamp of approval should cement that trend. Retail trading is $COIN's largest profit segment.
4) SEC allowing ETH ETF despite its staking characteristic means $COIN's staking business is in a much better spot than before.
5) FDIC chair, chokepoint 2.0 leader, is stepping down which could pave the way for $COIN to get into banking and compete with the big Wall Street institutions.

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More from @qthomp

Jan 14
After going 🔴short #BTC miners in July and 🟢long in November, as of last week I am once again short these names and expect some serious pain ahead.

The crux of the matter is their revenues will be cut in half in ~93 days. There are ~some~ miners who can operate slightly profitable at the current 0.08-0.09 TH/s hashprice, however most are not. You can assume breakeven is between 0.06-0.08 TH/s depending on the miner.

2/ Image
Upon halving this number will fall to ~0.04-0.045 (25-35% below previous all-time lows). Two offsetting factors to this decline will be a temporary reduction in hashrate and longer-term increase in transaction activity, but neither will be enough to prevent near-term pain.

Read 10 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
So here's a little hunch with some free alpha. Let's see how it plays out...

$MSTR/BTC and $COIN/BTC are typically very correlated. Over the last ~2 weeks, the latter has moved higher while the former has stagnated. This tells me $MSTR is actively selling shares to buy BTC.
How much in $MSTR share sales?
My estimations are in the $200-$300M range.
2/ Image
What next?
Well oddly enough, the Coinbase spot bidder has returned as of yesterday as well. Funny timing huh.
3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 14, 2023
Bank runs are so last week. Let's talk BREIT run

For the past 5 months, Blackstone's BREIT redemption requests exceeded the fund's monthly and quarterly maximum of 2% and 5% of NAV

As a result, withdrawals have been gated for past 4 months, each paying out <50% of requests

Even w/ no new redemption requests, BX will have to gate withdrawals for at least next two months

But will there be new redemption requests? Odds are yes

BREIT's NAV of $14.71/share is only down -2.6% from Sept. '22 peak ($15.11) and still up +28.8% since Feb. '20 pre-COVID

Meanwhile, 56% of BREIT is rental housing which comps to publicly traded REITs like $CPT, $AVB and $EQR, all of whom are down -30% or more from their post-COVID highs and trading well below pre-COVID levels

Read 9 tweets
Mar 12, 2023
What's the correct phrase to use when you're beyond 'rock and hard place'? Spectrum of Fed options range from backstop only SIVB to all US bank deposits.

Regardless, economy will still weaken and risk assets will still fall

SIVB only, rest of regional banks get ran on

Closer to the latter, still just bandaid. QT will persist. No matter what Fed does, banks will still:
- tighten lending standards (bad for credit availability and spreads)
- have to compete for deposits against treasuries so they don't get ran on (bad for bank profitability)

Full QE is the only way out but that's off the table for now (due to inflation) until there's more wreckage and the Fed has the air cover to completely pivot.

With that said, nominal rates have likely peaked despite persistent inflation - all roads lead to lower real rates

Read 6 tweets
Feb 1, 2022
1/ @maplefinance was launched 8 months ago, has grown to over $500 million in TVL and is tackling a $125 trillion total addressable market. Full stack below 🥞👇
2/ Before the internet took off, business incorporation and economic activity evolved from local/in person/brick and mortar. Soon enough companies were forced to “have a digital strategy” until today where the majority of new orgs are internet-native.
3/ Already underway, the next step in this progression is seeing all new businesses form as web3/crypto “protocols”. Now take tradfi capital markets, which on the debt side alone is a global TAM of $125 trillion, with almost $13 trillion of annual new issuance in the U.S. alone.
Read 16 tweets

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