Thread by @michaeldweiss

🧵New thread from "Karl," the Estonian military analyst, on the state of play in Ukraine, with @holger_r:

"The most significant development since we last spoke is of course the U.S aid package. Without this, the situation would have grown very critical for Ukraine by autumn."

"There are signs that Ukraine has more ammunition and air defense capabilities. It’s still not enough and it takes time to deliver all aid, but the artillery fire balance along several parts of the frontline has already improved."

"That Ukraine has shot down 5 Russian planes over two weeks is also a very good sign. It hampers Russia’s possibility to use glide bombs that have been their most efficient weapon over the last year."

"It is noteworthy that Mike Johnson allowed the aid package vote in the Congress when he received a nod of assurance from Trump and Trump has thus far kept his word and not followed with attacks against him."

"This is possibly a sign that even if Trump wants to make a deal with Russia about the war, he understands that he can’t make one if Ukraine is too weak and Russia has a clear path forward. In such a case, Russia would have no interest in any deals."

"The most significant development on the frontline is Russia's new offensive across the border in Kharkiv oblast. It was not a surprise but still: Ukraine hadn’t prepared for it too well in many stretches. That Ukraine replaced the Kharkiv front commander just a few days after the offensive started is a confirmation of this failure."

"The situation there has stabilized now and Russia still can’t reach Kharkiv with artillery fire. That goal hasn’t been achieved. It is still a concern that they have managed to move closer."

"Ukraine was forced to bring in some of its reserves to bolster the defense. It is not clear if they also needed to reposition some units from the eastern and southern frontlines."

"Despite hard pressure Russia hasn’t been able to advance at Kupyansk and also on the Lyman and Bilohorivka directions. They have also stalled in the Chasiv Yar direction near Bakhmut."

"Russia has had some success near Klishchiivka in areas that Ukraine liberated last summer. But Russia has advanced there by a maximum of 1-2 km, not more. South and west of Avdiivka Russia continues to advance as well, albeit slowly."

"From Ukraine’s perspective, their demolition work on Crimea has continued successfully. The new ATACMS and Storm Shadow munitions have clearly arrived. Crimea suffers painful hits daily now."

"Russia also can’t feel secure at all in Novorossiysk. Russia's ability to conduct air and missile strikes from that direction has been strongly limited. But it’s still possible from east and north."

"Odesa is safer than a month ago when it still sustained daily hits. But Kharkiv on the other hand is much more vulnerable. It’s a direct consequence of Biden’s policy that bars Ukraine to hit Russian territory with U.S arms."

"This creates a sense of impunity for Russia. They can destroy Kharkiv with their S-300s as much as they wish from inside Russian territory and Ukraine can’t do much about it."

"The pressure inside U.S to allow the use of weapons against targets inside Russia is growing. Blinken suggested to change the approach; there are also bipartisan voices adding pressure on Biden’s administration."

"I am absolutely assured that it wouldn’t be any red line for Russia that would make them go nuclear. It is only about a stagnated military-political Washington policy."

"The main reason for the changes in Russian MoD leadership is Putin’s discontent with the situation in their armed forces. Corruption clearly isn’t the real motivation. Corruption in Russia's army has always been and will continue to be there."

"Changes in the leadership will likely continue. Yesterday they dismissed the commander of the 20th Army. He wasn’t arrested yet but in that country it usually means that he will soon be detained as well."

"Such large-scale changes and leadership’s insecurity will at least in short term cause confusion and indecisiveness in Russia's military system, but in the long term it will not make a difference. Russia will continue the war as it has done so far."

"It’s too early to assess Patrushev’s new role. But Shoigu’s role has clearly changed and it’s difficult to believe that he would have as high influence in his new position as Patrushev did. He doesn’t have nearly as strong connections in Russia's special services."

"The perspective now is that Ukraine will manage to halt Russia’s offensive pressure over the next 1-2 months. Then the F-16s should, I hope, start arriving. It is not clear if Ukraine can use the F-16s to attack Russian planes that are not in Ukrainian air space. If they are not allowed to, the F-16s will not make any difference in the northern frontline."

"Ukraine will also continue to weaken Russian positions in Crimea. They will work to secure the frontline. There is no point to talk about their own ground operations, it can only be local counterattacks."

"Ukrainian mobilization should show results by November when they will have prepared new units. In case of dire need, they can bring this up maybe to the end of September."

"Strategically it will be most important how much the west can change its thinking and agree that Ukraine needs to win the war instead of only holding the frontline with difficulties. It depends a lot on Biden’s administration."

"It is not a nice sign that Biden will not attend the peace conference but instead will host a funding dinner for his presidential campaign at the same time." /END