"Why can't China leave Taiwan alone?"
People who say this are hopelessly naive.
Taiwan plays a critical role in determining:
1) The end of US hegemony
2) China's survival
3) The Global South's fade.
Let's examine this pivotal moment in the century. 🧵.
#1
People who say this are hopelessly naive.
Taiwan plays a critical role in determining:
1) The end of US hegemony
2) China's survival
3) The Global South's fade.
Let's examine this pivotal moment in the century. 🧵.
#1
Lai Ching-te sent a clear message to Beijing.
No more strategic ambiguities or maintaining the status quo.
Taiwan is headed for independence.
The island was under Japan's rule, then under Chiang Kai Shek's dictatorship, and under US control since, never a democracy.
#2
No more strategic ambiguities or maintaining the status quo.
Taiwan is headed for independence.
The island was under Japan's rule, then under Chiang Kai Shek's dictatorship, and under US control since, never a democracy.
#2
Taiwan is a problem for 1.4 billion Chinese. The West should let us figure it out.
The US, however, is a master at exploiting countries' internal conflicts to divide and conquer.
Taiwan will be the US's launchpad to invade the mainland.
China may lose. Let's find out why.
#3
The US, however, is a master at exploiting countries' internal conflicts to divide and conquer.
Taiwan will be the US's launchpad to invade the mainland.
China may lose. Let's find out why.
#3
The West views 1.4 billion Chinese as one single bot controlled by Xi Jinping.
The truth is managing China is an incredibly complex task.
Chinese leaders must navigate many local cultures, diverse public opinions, and various social structures.
Look at the following map.
#4
The truth is managing China is an incredibly complex task.
Chinese leaders must navigate many local cultures, diverse public opinions, and various social structures.
Look at the following map.
#4
Those so-called China "experts" won't understand this map.
Southern Chinese live in big families. Many are rich and opportunistic.
Northerners are individualistic, innovative and patriotic.
It's a helpful map for marketers, but save it for another day.
Back to our topic.
#5
Southern Chinese live in big families. Many are rich and opportunistic.
Northerners are individualistic, innovative and patriotic.
It's a helpful map for marketers, but save it for another day.
Back to our topic.
#5
Southern Chinese care less about Taiwan and more about business.
If reunification failed, Beijing could lose support from the wealthiest province in the country.
It will create a huge vulnerability for the US to exploit.
China's military faces another enormous challenge.
#6
If reunification failed, Beijing could lose support from the wealthiest province in the country.
It will create a huge vulnerability for the US to exploit.
China's military faces another enormous challenge.
#6
Beijing's leaders are well-versed in many of China's 4,000 ancient military texts.
The Art of War: The worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities
Taking Taiwan is a costly and risky operation.
However, the following approach would be adopted if China had no choice.
#7
The Art of War: The worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities
Taking Taiwan is a costly and risky operation.
However, the following approach would be adopted if China had no choice.
#7
China's military needs to take a few steps:
1) Test the blockade.
2) Revise the plan
3) Test again
4) 2nd round revision
5) Execute
Step 1 is done. Another radical move by Lai Ching-te will lead to step 3.
Why does the military need to take so long?
#8
1) Test the blockade.
2) Revise the plan
3) Test again
4) 2nd round revision
5) Execute
Step 1 is done. Another radical move by Lai Ching-te will lead to step 3.
Why does the military need to take so long?
#8
China has to anticipate attacks from AUKUS and Japan.
And it must ensure minimal damage to Taiwan.
There is no point in destroying families on the island and turning them all into enemies of the mainland.
Beijing knows that.
#9
And it must ensure minimal damage to Taiwan.
There is no point in destroying families on the island and turning them all into enemies of the mainland.
Beijing knows that.
#9
Reunification has no worst-case scenario.
Because Beijing cannot afford to fail, as doing so would lead to catastrophic consequences.
The RMB will fall off the cliff. Many strategic partners will cancel cooperation agreements.
It will set China back 20 years.
#10
Because Beijing cannot afford to fail, as doing so would lead to catastrophic consequences.
The RMB will fall off the cliff. Many strategic partners will cancel cooperation agreements.
It will set China back 20 years.
#10
I am a Southerner with a Northern heart. Of course, I want reunification to happen.
It will mark the end of US hegemony. We will have a more balanced world.
And the Global South will rise with China.
#11
It will mark the end of US hegemony. We will have a more balanced world.
And the Global South will rise with China.
#11
Beijing's peaceful reunification strategy is working.
95% of Taiwanese are Chinese. They are coming to the mainland more often and are proud of its achievements.
The US is desperate and willing to fight China to the last Taiwanese.
Beijing had no choice but to respond.
#12
95% of Taiwanese are Chinese. They are coming to the mainland more often and are proud of its achievements.
The US is desperate and willing to fight China to the last Taiwanese.
Beijing had no choice but to respond.
#12
Typo: it should be
3) The Global South's fate, not fade 😂
3) The Global South's fate, not fade 😂
Typo: it should be in post #1
3) The Global South's fate, not fade 😂
3) The Global South's fate, not fade 😂
@mroeppel and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities. The rule is, not to besiege walled cities if it can possibly be avoided.
ctext.org/art-of-war/att…
ctext.org/art-of-war/att…
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