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May 30, 2024 23 tweets 13 min read Read on X
🧵🇮🇷
The IRGC cognitive warfare is more dangerous than its missiles and drones.

Iran's cognitive battle uses propaganda to undermine the support of the US and Israel in the world • Khamenei creates narratives that portray Israel as murderous to erode support for it..

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"WHEN YOU'VE WON THE AYATOLLAH, YOU LOST AMERICA"
- @SpeakerJohnson

Khamenei himself manages the propaganda activity, which aims to link the support of the American students in Gaza with the destruction of the United States from within.

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Khamenei's worldview reflects the world view of Goebbels and the Soviet policy regarding the power of propaganda and cognitive engineering.

For him, although Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily, it can wear down the its foundations through propaganda.

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The leader sees his role as a cognitive guide, who uses psychological tools for influence.

He uses the narrative of the "Palestinian struggle" to build narratives that present Israel as an occupier and murderer.

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This cognitive activity is designed to generate support for the Palestinian cause among Americans and others.

The second part of this cognitive project is to turn Americans against the United States itself, which is presented as a supporter of "racist and genocidal Israel".

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KHAMENEI: A GRADUAL COGNITIVE TERROR
Khamenei claims that global conflicts are won through the media.

In his view, war is now a cognitive war. "The media affects the mind and the heart, and those who control the media manage to achieve their goals."

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Khamenei uses influencers such as intellectuals, politicians and journalists to mobilize the public.

He explains how by recruiting influencers the public can be mobilized to pressure governments to stop supporting Israel.
Khamenei carefully manufactures propaganda narratives

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For years he called Israel "the occupying regime" and used the term "racism" to create a context for harming innocents.

On October 17, 2023, Khamenei called the war in Gaza "genocide," claiming that Israel was deliberately attacking civilians and blamed the
US for it.

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SOCIAL & MORAL JIHAD
Khamenei builds the cognitive narrative of the "social & moral Jihad" and hopes that the world's population will understand Islam and its superiority over the West.

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He distinguishes between support for Hamas and support for terrorism and claims that young people in the West and the US have begun to delve into the Quran.

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THE VALUE OF PROPAGANDA
Khamenei emphasizes the importance of continuous propaganda in mobilizing global public support for Gaza.

"The Gaza issue must not be allowed to fall from the top stage of global public opinion; this issue is critical and, in his opinion, decisive."

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In a conversation with Ismail Haniyeh, Khamenei praised Palestinian propaganda and emphasized the importance of maintaining its supremacy.

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THE UNIVERSITIES
On October 23, 2024, Khamenei emphasized the power of universities and called on all universities and religious centers to stand by Gaza in the war.

A few weeks later, he called for making the most of the global trend of protests against Israel and the US.

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Khamenei noted the increase in the number of universities in the US where demonstrations are taking place and explained that this indicates that Gaza is the top issue on the public agenda.

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Professor Fouad Yazdi from the University of Tehran referred to the demonstrations at universities in the US and said that they indicate that the Palestinian cause is at the center of the world agenda.

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According to him, the demonstrations will reduce US support for Israel, and in the second stage, as tensions between the US and Iran increase, the identified students With the Islamic Republic they will take to the streets to support Iran.

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Yazdi reflects the fact that the United States is the main target.

He calls it "the great devil" and "the cardinal enemy of Iran" and hopes that the recent events there give hope to the IRGC.

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If it looks like a duck - and quacks like a duck...
The IRGC see the Biden administration as a weak regime.

They moved forward with their nuclear program, attacking Israel directly in April 2024 with missiles and drones, knowing that the United States would not retaliate.

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The IRGC closely follow the US policy towards Israel on the Rafah issue and believe that the US will not allow the elimination of Hamas.

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IRGC UNDERMINING ACTIVITY IN UNITED-STATES

On the American front, there are reports of subversive Iranian activity.

2017, Hossein Dabashi stated that former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had established the Iranian American National Council as a proxy for the regime.

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In 2023, Robert Malley, the former special envoy for Iran affairs, was suspended for a security breach.

The Iranian regime sees the weakness of the American regime as a golden opportunity.

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They are taking advantage of the Palestinian struggle and the rising anti-Semitism to achieve their goals in the cognitive struggle against the United States.

Khamenei takes advantage of the noisy minority even if the majority does not share their opinion.

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In his speeches, he hints at what is to come, and his threats to turn the student protest against the United States itself should be taken seriously. Image

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More from @EasternVoices

Jun 23
🔴🧵
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗔𝗙𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗠𝗔𝗧𝗛 | Where Are We Heading

Israel is pounding the IRGC in Iran. The U.S. has obliterated key components of the nuclear program in a historic strike. And the Mid East is shifting rapidly - Hour by hour.

Here’s my assessment of where this is heading

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THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM

The United States has severely damaged the Ayatollahs’ nuclear program. This will slow down the regime’s path to a nuclear weapon, but we must stay grounded. It will not prevent them from continuing to pursue it.

The Israeli Air Force and the Mossad have done a tremendous job paving the way for the U.S. to carry out their strike. Without Israel’s groundwork - destroying Iranian air defense systems, ground-to-air missiles, detection systems, and the infrastructure above these nuclear facilities, the American strike would not have been possible in the manner that it was conducted.

From an operational point of view, if we isolate the nuclear targets alone, once the B-2 bombers dropped the bunker busters, additional bombers and 4th and 5th generation aircraft had to keep coming back with smaller diameter bombs around the initial targeted area, to collapse and sink the entire surface and ensure the facilities are beyond repair. Therefore, I anticipate that, alongside the broad target bank Israel has prepared for this operation: Targeting ballistic capabilities, defense systems, and regime assets, there will be repetitive Israeli Air Force strikes doing exactly that.

In addition, satellite images showing trucks departing Fordow increase the suspicion that some enriched uranium was moved elsewhere. The assessments are 400kg enriched Uranium was mobilised from the site. It is now up to Israeli intelligence and the Air Force to locate and destroy those barrels, and that will not be an easy task. But detection of trucks with the level of intelligence Israel has on the ground, is not that difficult either.

Israel has now created a new equation. Even when Operation Rising Lion is over, every attempt to rebuild these nuclear capabilities or rearm with ballistic missiles - either for the regime or its proxies, will be answered with an Air Force package flying back and forth to Iran, just like Israel already does in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

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REGIME CHANGE

Regime change was not a primary objective of this operation - not for Israel and not for the U.S. But it became a weapon against the regime the moment it chose to target Israeli civilians, hoping to trigger an internal revolt against Netanyahu.

The Ayatollahs’ regime is a Shia regime, meaning it is not suicidal. It will do anything to stay in power and survive.

I believe that eliminating Khamenei by anyone but the Iranian people themselves would embolden Hezbollah and the Houthis to join the war, despite their limited capabilities. It might even lead to the execution of our hostages in Gaza. Yes, the regime is not suicidal — but its proxies are, and they will die on that hill if the symbol of everything they believe in is eliminated by Israel or the U.S.
Let me remind you: they’re not far away, they are right at our borders.

At this point, regime change is no longer just a geopolitical calculation - it’s a strategic one. If we want a long-term, sustainable solution for the region and the West, we cannot allow a regime that, even after such a blow, continues to release daily threats against Israel, America, Europe, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

A regime like this cannot stay in power. But the objective is not just regime change - it is leadership change.
And that is far more complex than eliminating a leader like Khamenei, as we did with Nasrallah in Lebanon and Sinwar in Gaza.
Unlike them, Khamenei is not the head of an organization within a country - he is the head of a country itself. And despite the Iranian sentiment that the regime doesn’t represent them, replacing Iran’s governance system is the only viable objective. No one wants to see a younger, more ideological Ayatollah rise to power with the same goals.

No military can force that kind of change, but it can create the conditions for it.
What’s certain is this: we are approaching a point of no return. If the Iranian people, who are seen as natural allies of Western civilisation, cannot seize this opportunity, they may never get another. It’s now or never. And if they fail, once Israeli jets leave Iran, the regime will mass-execute its own population if it has to. That’s something neither Israel nor the U.S. administration wants to witness.
Trust me, the lessons from Afghanistan and Gaza have been learned.

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Read 8 tweets
Jun 10
🔴🧵
THE BEGINNING OF THE END? THE ISRAELI NAVY ATTACK IN YEMEN: My Initial Analysis

Why did the Houthis fail to detect the Israeli ship? What this reveals about possible on-the-ground collaboration, and what it all means tactically?

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1. THE TACTICAL EXPLANATION: How The Israeli Ship Managed To Approach The Port Undetected?

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A. USING CIVILIAN SHIPPING LANES:

The Israeli ship could have traveled within busy commercial shipping corridors, possibly under the radar or disguised (e.g., moving close to merchant vessels). This would make it hard for the Houthis to single it out.

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Read 18 tweets
Jun 3
🖍️
𝘈𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴

SITUATION OVERVIEW | THE REALITY YOU WON’T HEAR IN THE NEWS

The collapse of the Palestinian Dream, the panic in the Arab world, why ‘Nakba’ is the way to normalisation, how come everyone but Israel fear Iran and what Israeli officials are failing to see?

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When the Saudis buy American weapons, it’s not for peace nor glory, it’s protection money.
When they cozy up to France, it’s not diplomacy, it’s panic.

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And in Israel? Senior officials are sweating, not because they lack power, but because they come from a culture of stability, not of decisive action.

But here’s a basic rule in geopolitics: when your adversary is panicking, you’re probably on the right track. You need to keep going. He’ll break before you do..

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Read 9 tweets
May 24
🧵
IS HEZBOLLAH DISMANTLED?
THE IRGC PLAN TO REBUILD ITS AXIS

Iran’s IRGC is trying to rehabilitate its axis via crown proxy Hezbollah, but Jolani’s Syria is complicating it for the Ayatollahs. Now they found alternatives, far from the Mid-East and Israeli intelligence..

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Hezbollah has recently relocated the families of nearly 400 of its leaders to Latin America, while some have opted to seek asylum in Africa.

According to Lebanese sources, the families of the 400 Hezbollah leaders were deported to Latin America with them.

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In a video posted to his X account, journalist Ali Hamadeh ( @AliNahar ) revealed information, while denying its validity, citing a “Latin American diplomat” who claimed that a large number of mid-level Hezbollah leaders’ families had been expelled from Lebanon.

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Read 14 tweets
May 8
🧵🔴
THE MISSILE THAT GOT AWAY:
WHY THE HOUTHI MISSILE WHICH HIT THE AIRPORT WASN’T INTERCEPTED?

How did the failure to intercept the Houthi missile happen, and how might it be connected to Trump halting American strikes on the Houthis in Yemen?

Prepared to be shocked

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On Sunday, May 4th, Israel’s defense systems detected a launch from Yemen. By 9:19 a.m., news channels were already reporting the missile launch.

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Just a few minutes later, at approximately 9:23 a.m., sirens were activated from the Shfela region to northern Sharon, including at Ben Gurion Airport. This indicates that the sirens worked correctly and the Israeli detection systems picked up the launch in time.

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Read 20 tweets
May 3
🧵🚨
NEW DETAILS ANALYSIS ON THE SO-CALLED “FREEDOM FLOTILLA” TO GAZA

The ship attacked off the coast of Malta on May 2nd was part of a Turkish flotilla intended to break the Gaza naval blockade, with ties to IHH and IRGC Quds Force.

Here’s the full breakdown:

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The ship was reportedly part of a pre-planned Turkish flotilla aimed at challenging the Israeli blockade on Gaza. It was linked to the IHH organization, the same group behind the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla.

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On the ship you can spot the HANDALA logo, a cyber-Terror group responsible for several attacks against Israel, including on the Iron-Dome defence system.

Handala operates with support from IRGC intelligence agencies, particularly Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS).

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Read 13 tweets

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