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Barak Ravid Profile picture
@BarakRavid
May 30 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1 \ I will start from the bottom line: Israel isn't going for an early election (for now). The bill to dissolve the Knesset, which was tabled by Benny Gantz's party, isn't really advancing any time soon
2 \ Gantz presented the bill as a build up ahead of his stated plan to leave the government by June 8. It could definitely happen sooner than that
3 \ So why did Gantz do it? One reason is his numbers are plummeting in the polls. Channel 12 poll yesterday showed he went down from 40 seats three months ago to 25 now. The poll also showed Netanyahu's favorability numbers are higher than Gantz's for the 1st time since October 7
4 \ In addition, Gantz's number 2 Gadi Eizenkot gave a super strong speech against Netanyahu which led all Prime time news shows on TV. Gantz needed to do something that asserts his leadership
5 \ And another small but significant detail: Netanyahu still has 64 members majority in the Knesset even if Gantz leaves the coalition. So no majority at the moment for dissolving the Knesset

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More from @BarakRavid

Barak Ravid Profile picture
Jun 1
🚨President Biden's boldest attempt yet to push for a hostage deal and an end to the war in Gaza now hinges on whether Hamas leaders will return to negotiations and reach a deal. My story on @axios
axios.com/2024/06/01/bid…
🚨Why it matters: Israeli and U.S. officials said the latest Israeli proposal Biden presented in a speech on Friday has likely exhausted Israel's room for compromise and flexibility
🚨U.S. officials said Biden's speech was intended to mobilize international support for the proposal and increase pressure on Hamas to take the deal
🚨For Biden, that's the most feasible path to unlock his exit strategy from the war
🚨If Hamas turns down the proposal, a ceasefire would be off the table and the crisis in Gaza would likely escalate, the officials said
🟢Hamas, which in recent days said it won't resume negotiations if Israel doesn't first stop the war, issued a statement stressing it "looks positively" at Biden's speech
🟢What happens next depends on whether Hamas' political leaders, who are based in Doha and received the Israeli proposal on Thursday from Qatari mediators, are willing to negotiate details of the proposed deal without a ceasefire in place
Read 11 tweets
Barak Ravid Profile picture
May 20
הבקשה של התובע בבית הדין הפלילי הבינלאומי בהאג להוציא צווי מעצר נגד ראש הממשלה נתניהו ושר הביטחון גלנט היא שיאו של כישלון מדיני מוחלט של ממשלת ישראל מאז מתקפת הטרור של 7 באוקטובר. קראו את הפרשנות שלי ב-@WallaNews
news.walla.co.il/item/3665281?u…
Image
למה זה חשוב:
🚨התובע מדגיש בהודעתו שהוא ממקד את הבקשה לצווי מעצר במקבלי ההחלטות המרכזיים בדרג המדיני, ולא מתייחס כלל לדרג הצבאי
🚨עיקר טענותיו נוגעות למדיניות עליה החליטה ממשלת ישראל - במיוחד בכל הנוגע למצב ההומניטרי בעזה
🚨עוד סיבה שזה חשוב: המהלך של התובע יגביר עוד יותר את בידודה הבינלאומי של ישראל ואת הלחץ שמופעל עליה להפסיק את המלחמה, גם ללא שחרור של חטופים. הוא גם יקשה עוד יותר על ממשל ביידן להמשיך להעניק לישראל גיבוי מדיני וסיוע ביטחוני
Read 11 tweets
Barak Ravid Profile picture
May 19
1 \ White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday and briefed him and his team on his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman about the "Mega Deal" that could include normalization with Israel, the WH said
2 \ The White House said Sullivan spoke with Netanyahu about "the potential that may now be available for Israel, as well as the Palestinian people" as a result of the Mega Deal
3 \ Sullivan and his team held a meeting with a senior Israeli team about the operation in Rafah. The White House said Sullivan was briefed on Israeli military operations in Gaza & the two sides discussed "methods to ensure the defeat of Hamas while minimizing harm to civilians"
Read 5 tweets
Barak Ravid Profile picture
May 16
1 \ Israel presented to Egypt on Wednesday a plan for the reopening of the Rafah crossing with Palestinian representatives and UN personnel under Israeli supervision and military protection, according to a source familiar with the details of the plan
2 \ On Wednesday, an Israeli delegation that included Shin Bet officials and the head of COGAT General Ghasan Aliyan met in Cairo with Egyptian intelligence officials to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing
3 \ According to the Israeli plan prepared by the Shin Bet, the Rafah crossing will only be used for movement of people to and from the Gaza Strip and for the transfer of fuel from Egypt, the source told me
Read 10 tweets
Barak Ravid Profile picture
May 4
1 / בלינקן: אנחנו מחכים לתגובה מחמאס. הדבר היחיד שעומד בין תושבי עזה להפסקת אש זו תשובת חמאס
2 / בלינקן: ממשלת ישראל מאוד מורכבת לאיזון. נתניהו צריך לקחת את זה בחשבון. אבל הרבה ממה שהוא עושה משקף את איפה שחלק גדול מהישראלים נמצאים כרגע. זו חברה בטראומה. זה מאתגר מאוד לחדור את הטראומה הזו. אבל כחברים של ישראל אנחנו צריכים להגיד להם מה אנחנו חושבים שישרת את האינטרסים שלהם
3 / בלינקן: ישבתי עם יורש העצר הסעודי מוחמד בן סלמאן והוא אמר לי שהוא רוצה נורמליזציה עם ישראל ושהוא רוצה להשיג זאת בהקדם האפשרי, אבל צריך רגיעה בעזה ונתיב ברור למדינה פלסטינית. זה מה שאנשים באזור צריכים לראות כדי לתמוך בנורמליזציה
Read 5 tweets
Barak Ravid Profile picture
Apr 8
1 \ 📢 New details about the U.S. proposed hostage deal: A key issue in the new proposal concerns Israel's demand that Hamas release 40 hostages who are alive, even if some of them do not meet the original criteria for release on humanitarian grounds, two senior Israeli officials told me
2 \ The first phase of the deal includes the release of women, female soldiers, men over the age of 50 and men under the age of 50 with serious medical conditions. In recent negotiations, Hamas said it does not have 40 living hostages from these categories, the officials said
3 \ The senior Israeli officials say they believe that is accurate and that a single-digit number of hostages from other categories would be needed to reach the release of 40 hostages. Israel proposed Hamas close the gap with soldiers or men under the age of 50 being held as hostages and Israel would release a higher number of Palestinian prisoners for each of these hostages, the officials said
Read 5 tweets

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