As promised the next 🧵, about the (now exhausted) Rocket and Artillery Weapons Arsenal in Karabasch.
1/14
55°24'08"N 60°12'36"E earth.google.com/web/@55.423449…
2/14
Before the invasion, there were 3 clusters of stored towed howitzers.
Aside from that, there were only some buildings and complexes (probably for maintenance and testing) in and around the actual storage base, a train station and a few logistics vehicles.
3/14
The largest cluster in the middle of the forest held exclusively D-30s in their characteristic collapsed transport and stowage configuration.
4/14
The second cluster consists also exclusively of D-30s.
5/14
The third cluster is a bit of a mystery. These are clearly not D-30s but a different model of towed gun. We have only 4 sets of "high" resolution footage of these (two of which later after having been moved inside the base) but none are good enough for a definitive ID.
6/14
From the general size and form factor we can rule all the guns that are too big (like e.g. 2A36), to small (like e.g. D-44), have a shorter barrel than this (like M-30 or all the pre WW2 howitzers) or a longer one (like (M)T-12).
7/14
It also looks like the guns have a muzzle brake, sometimes with what I believe to be white bags over the muzzle to protect against moisture. This rules out all guns without muzzle devices.
8/14
We are fairly certain that these guns are either D-20, D-1, or ML-20. I tend towards D-20, @HighMarsed more towards D-1. Russia supposedly has some ML-20 in storage but not many, so that one is unlikely. But without better footage or pictures it's a guess either way.
9/14
So how many artillery pieces were in Karabasch? There were:
363 D-30
60 other guns (D-20/D-1/ML-20)
@HighMarsed counted these D-30s and the number in his 🧵is still valid. The number of the additional guns has AFAIK not been posted until now.
10/14
Now what happened to these guns?
In short, all D-30s are gone and a single other gun remains, which is most likely non-usable or it would have already been removed as well.
@HighMarsed had already confirmed that the D-30s were all removed by 5.10.23.
11/14
But we only recently got an update from 30.04.2024 from Google Earth. For some reason only in the Pro version and only with the timeline deactivated, sometimes free sat footage sites are tricky.
No matter, we can now show the pictures of the (almost) completely empty base.
12/14
By looking at the Sentinel footage we can also try to figure out a bit more exact when the base was empty. Unfortunatelly no Sentinel-1 (SAR) footage was available, but I'm pretty confident, that the Sentinel-2 footage shows that the large cluster was removed by 13.06.2023.
13/14
It's possible that some guns were still lingering around but nothing really obvious. So most of the base, which was Russia's 4th largest storage for D-30s, was probably already more or less exhausted in June 2023.
14/14
Additionally, the activity around the base has decreased, almost all trucks have left.
But at the moment of the sat picture a train was at the base's train station, so something is still going on there.
There are a few garages that could still house e.g. equipment or ammo.
Final thoughts:
First of all, respect to @Jonpy99 . More info in the tweet below. This kind of selflessness isn't easy to find these days, so if you value that or are interested in counting of Russian AFVs, he's a good address.
@Jonpy99 Outlook:
I will probably soon make another 🧵 about another Russian storage depot, of which we have recently gotten new high resolution footage.
The 7015th Storage and Repair Base in Mulino.
And yes, it's also empty by now.
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Another 🧵. This time let's take a look at an Rocket and Artillery Warehouse near the town of Sazan'e. Big thanks to @HighMarsed, @Ath3neN0ctu4 and especially @Jonpy99 for helping me with identifying the vehicles there.
1/25
52°30'44"N 44°07'55"E earth.google.com/web/@52.512229…
2/25
The base consists mostly of dispersed garages that should store artillery ammunition and equipment. But there are three small clusters of vehicles that are being stored there since 2020. earth.google.com/web/@52.512681…
3/25
The western and eastern clusters store exclusively trucks and trailers, but the middle one consists of armored artillery support vehicles. The trucks have not been touched since they were put there (nobody cares about stored trucks).
I found something again, that might be interesting. The (corpse of the) 60th Arsenal in Kaluga to be exact. Short 🧵:
1/10 earth.google.com/web/@54.507097…
2/10
Amongst a few other things the 60th Arsenal used to repair and maintain Buk AD systems.
3/10
A cluster of what I believe to be AD equipment, including launchers, can be seen in the open, almost untouched from at least 2013 to 2021 (left is from 20.07.21). But by 2023 the cluster has then been mostly cleared (right from 14.06.1023). earth.google.com/web/@54.510666…
1/30🧵:
Hier mal meine eigene Ausführung zur Strategie im Krieg der🇺🇦 gegen 🇷🇺 und der Bedeutung von Taurus (und ähnlicher Systeme) für den weiteren Kriegsverlauf:
2/30:
Letzlich stellt sich die Frage zur Theorie eines Sieges in der 🇺🇦. Wie kann ich 🇷🇺vertreiben. Krieg ist die Fortsetzung der Diplomatie mit anderen Mitteln. Clausewitz mag aus der Zeit gefallen wirken, aber Putin folgt gerade der Logik dieser Zeit,
3/30:
daher vereinfacht gesagt gibt es keinen Unterschied zwischen Krieg und Frieden für Putin außer den Mitteln. Politik ist Konflikt, das Streben nach Macht und traditionell nach Land. Der Krieg läuft also (bereits seit 2014) und wird diplomatisch nicht beendet werden bis Putin