1/ How YouGov's dodgy MRP poll treated Birmingham.
Headlines:
- It classified every seat as 'safe Labour'
- It forecasted Labour's vote share to rise across the city, despite it falling in the W Midlands mayoral election
- Its treatment of 'others' suggests political/ethnic bias
Headlines:
- It classified every seat as 'safe Labour'
- It forecasted Labour's vote share to rise across the city, despite it falling in the W Midlands mayoral election
- Its treatment of 'others' suggests political/ethnic bias
2/ YouGov's forecast that every seat in Birmingham is safe for Labour suggests MRP's prediction of a Labour landslide is based on rocky foundations.
In my view, though Starmer's likely to win, his majority will be reduced by some losses in 'safe' seats.
In my view, though Starmer's likely to win, his majority will be reduced by some losses in 'safe' seats.
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1797659498427154538
3/ In the West Midlands mayoral election, Labour's vote share in Birmingham itself fell substantially from 48.2% (102,276 votes) in 2021 to 37.3% (80,251) in 2024.
And yet YouGov is forecasting General Election vote shares ranging from 54% to 78%. These seems highly improbable.
And yet YouGov is forecasting General Election vote shares ranging from 54% to 78%. These seems highly improbable.
4/ The mayoral contest saw independent Akhmed Yakoob win 42,923 votes (20%) in Birmingham alone.
In the GE, he's standing in Ladywood - but YouGov allocates only 1% to 'others'.
In Hall Green, meanwhile, it allocates 10% - presumably assuming Roger Godsiff will again do well.
In the GE, he's standing in Ladywood - but YouGov allocates only 1% to 'others'.
In Hall Green, meanwhile, it allocates 10% - presumably assuming Roger Godsiff will again do well.
5/ The 10% YouGov awards to 'others' in Hall Green is at odds with its claim that its first MRP poll for the General Election doesn't "reflect that variable (independents) in this particular model".
In fact, it seems to 'reflect' some independents but is blind to others. Bias?
In fact, it seems to 'reflect' some independents but is blind to others. Bias?
6/ It didn't take much research to establish that (in addition to Godsiff/Hall Green) six of the nine Birmingham constituencies have independent or Workers Party candidates backed by @themuslimvoteuk. This includes Yakoob.
YouGov allocates them a vote share of 2.33pts each!
YouGov allocates them a vote share of 2.33pts each!
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