Thread by @2023gazawar

War in Lebanon

As is well-known, Israel intends to invade Southern Lebanon around August this year (+/- 1 month) in order to take over all territory up to the Litani river and stop Hezbollah rocket attacks into the North of the country. This invasion will likely consist of 12 brigades structured in 3 divisions:

146th Division:
- 205th Reserve Armored Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon, this brigade was selected by Command to be specifically saved up for the invasion)
- Carmeli Reserve Brigade (is expected to prepare with exercises soon)
- 226th Reserve Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon, this brigade was selected by Command to be specifically saved up for the invasion)
- 228th Reserve Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon, this brigade was selected by Command to be specifically saved up for the invasion)

36th Armored Division:
- 188th Armored Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon)
- Golani Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon)
- Kiryati Reserve Armored Brigade
- Etzioni Reserve Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon)

98th Division:
- 7th Armored Brigade
- 35th Brigade
- Commando Brigade
- 551st Reserve Brigade (has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon)

As you can see, most of them have already been prepared for the invasion while they were deployed on the northern border, but only 3 of them are currently in position:
- 551st Brigade is under the 146th Division in the Western Galilee
- 36th and 188th Brigades have been taken apart and all their battalions were given to the 3 territorial brigades guarding the Lebanese border.

Total amount of combat soldiers = ~18k, around twice as many as entered Lebanon in 2006.

War in Lebanon is not currently imminent, because most of the required brigades are elsewhere:

- 7th, 35th and Commando Brigades are busy in and around Gaza, and have neither been moved north yet nor been prepared for the invasion.
- Carmeli Brigade is currently in Netzarim, but is expected to move north to replace 551 in the next few days. (Carmeli itself will be replaced by Alexandroni in Netzarim)
- 205, 226, 228, Kiryati and Etzioni aren’t mobilized.

I believe that it‘s not likely Lebanon will be invaded in the next 6 weeks, because that’s the minimum amount of time it will take to move everything north (I think it will be in August).

Once the invasion starts however, in my assessment, the IDF have to complete all objectives within less than 3 months (ideally within 50 days) or they are forced to withdraw. This is because 60% of the invasion force has to be dismissed and demobilized once 3 months pass since they’re reservists, and it’s not possible to continue without them (the IDF simply don’t have enough regular forces by themselves, and can’t call up endless amounts of reservists to continue on regardless). If the IDF manage to take the Litani line before this happens the war is won. 36th Division will occupy Southern Lebanon, 162nd Division will occupy Netzarim and Philadelphi, and 98th Division will be used in raids into Gaza for the next 3 years (see my pinned thread on the long term direction of the war).

Below the believed invasion ORBAT:

Also below the current Lebanese border ORBAT:

*The total amount of combat soldiers for the invasion is 18k, the current amount on the border is ~5.5k, of which 2.5k are regulars.