DeFi TVL is now sitting at $42B, a 2.5 year low, below even when FTX collapsed.
The naive response is that this is bearish. But that's not necessarily true.
There are two reasons why this TVL downturn is not a big deal IMO. 👇
1. The risk-free rate has skyrocketed, so on-chain yields are now below off-chain yields. Compound is paying ~3% on USDC, while the Fed Funds rate is ~5.5%. This naturally pulls capital off-chain.
This is normal. As rates go down over the coming years, much of that will return.
2. DeFi is becoming more capital-efficient—RFQ systems, better liquidations, and Uniswap v3 have reduced capital requirements. Case in point: DEX volumes remain strong.
All of this means it's not that DeFi is dying—rather, TVL is becoming a less useful metric today.
Yesterday I freaked out about the revelation that @Ledger could spit out your private key with a firmware update.
Yet I noticed the smartest people were not freaking out. Was I missing something?
I spent the evening educating myself, and now I'm in the "nvm it's fine" camp.
This was my initial mental model: I thought Ledger's Secure Element was like Apple's Secure Enclave—a box that a private key lives in which can only sign things, but "keys can never leave the device." h/t @roinevirta
But it's not! Firmware can exfiltrate the private key! Oh god!
This take is actually nonsensical. This *can't be how it works*.
Because Ledgers *upgrade*.
Many people's instinct is "wait why even? I don't want my hardware wallet to ever upgrade."
FTX reminded us of the failures of centralization. Yes, we need regulation, but even moreso we need innovation.
Proud to announce we seeded @renegade_fi, an on-chain dark pool that uses ZKPs and MPC to build a truly anonymized decentralized exchange.
The future is trustless. 👇
1/ In the wake of FTX, traders have been wary of counterparty risk from exchanges. CeFi has entered a new low-trust phase.
With Renegade, counterparty risk is obviated via cryptography and zero-knowledge proofs. Custody is guaranteed on-chain. You don't need to trust anyone.
2/ You can also eliminate much of MEV from DeFi, as validators and sequencers only ever see ZKPs of valid transactions. No more transaction reordering or sandwich attack shenanigans.
1/ Fraud case is rock solid. Chai using Terra was a complete fabrication, with fake on-chain transactions and everything.
I was surprised by how egregious this was. People at Terraform Labs knew it was bullshit.
2/ They claim UST is a security because it was so closely tied to Anchor, which was marketed as a profitable investment. I guess I can see it? Might be a version of Gensler's money market argument—he may then go after BUSD under the theory that BUSD + Binance Earn ≈ Anchor.
Every year at @dragonfly_xyz we do a retro on the biggest lessons of the year. This year we came up with the top 10 lessons that we wanted to take away as venture investors in 2023.
I thought it might be useful to share them. Here are the 10 lessons in order: 👇
1. Diligence actually matters.
In the year of FTX, LUNA, and 3AC, this is the one lesson everyone in the industry learned.
Doesn't matter how impressive the founders seem. If you don't verify what they are telling you, you *will* eventually get burned.
2. When everything seems crazy, it probably is.
Valuations and narratives got ahead of themselves last year. We felt that something was off and late-stage valuations were not sustainable. It's tempting to brush that off and say "well, the market is smarter than me."