Frances 'Cassandra' Coppola Profile picture
Jun 8 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Sorry to throw a bucket of cold water over this, but economic inactivity is at almost the lowest level in history and far below what it was in 2010 when the Tories came to power. The small rise since Feb 2020 is largely explained by population ageing. coppolacomment.com/2024/06/the-my…
Here's the long view of the UK's inactivity rate. The tiny blip at the RH side is the rise since the pandemic. Image
David Smith is a fine economist. I expected better from him than carelessly feeding the right's "put more people to work" frenzy. Putting more people to work doesn't generate sustainable growth. And the productivity puzzle hasn't gone away. coppolacomment.com/2024/06/why-to…
"The real problem is a structural shift in the UK economy since the 2008 financial crisis that has rendered it reliant on ever-greater numbers of people doing ever more work. The UK's demographics make such an economy unsustainable."
coppolacomment.com/2024/06/why-to…
The current frenzy about economic inactivity is the Right's latest desperate attempt to prolong the failed "put more people to work" growth strategy instead of addressing the failure of investment and innovation, and associated collapse of productivity, on their watch.

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More from @Frances_Coppola

Jun 4
More on that structural shift in the UK economy since the financial crisis. The quality of the labour force has been increasing, and that has compensated for both MFP failure and lack of capital deepening. 1/
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But more highly educated workers doing more hours does not equate to more highly skilled jobs. We need to know what jobs they are doing. Stagnation of productivity and poor wage growth suggests that many are not doing jobs commensurate with their skill level. 2/
Seems to point to mismatches between the skills available in the workforce and the skills actually needed by employers?
Read 9 tweets
Jun 4
Farage's target of zero net migration relies on the idea that there is a large pool of low-skilled British workers ready and willing to be deployed into crucial sectors to replace immigrants. But there is no such pool. The UK is at full employment and has been for some years. 1/
The Tories have for 14 years tried to generate growth by forcing lots of people to do lots of work. This has been at the expense of innovation and capital investment. (chart from @CPSThinkTank using ONS statistics). 2/ Image
@CPSThinkTank It has also been at the expense of labour productivity. Labour productivity collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis and has remained permanently lower ever since. We don't know why, but the failure of innovation and capital investment is a likely cause. 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
May 12
Since I spent yesterday singing The Dream of Gerontius, I think I'll write a post about demons.
We are expected to fear the demons, to feel relieved when they are safely "caged within their bars" like "beasts of prey". The good Angel tells us the hate they express has no reason, it is merely "the restless panting of their being".
But what the demons themselves say tells us another story.

"Dispossessed, aside thrust, chucked down by the sheer might of a despot's will"
Read 14 tweets
May 9
Correlation is not causation, exhibit of the day. Image
"Migrants are not to blame for the UK's inadequate fixed capital investment, but let's cap migration instead of increasing fixed capital investment" Image
Why do the authors of this report assume this chart supports their argument for a cap on migration? It can just as easily be read as recommending higher capital investment. Image
Read 16 tweets
May 8
I have only skim read this so far. Will give considered thoughts in a post in a few days. But my immediate reaction is that it is ascribing cause to what may be merely effects.
For example, high immigration and ethnic diversity in London compared to regions could be due to agglomeration effects. Agglomeration effects put pressure on housing and public services, but is impeding agglomeration really the best solution?
High immigration in the NHS and care sectors could be meeting increasing demand due to an ageing population. If so, how would capping immigration in those sectors solve the problem?
Read 12 tweets
May 3
I have been doing a spot of research into LBC's owner Global Media and Entertainment Ltd. Did you know that it has made a loss every year since 2008 except for 2018?
It borrows shedloads of money from its offshore parent, at exorbitant rates of interest, and pays out enormous sums to that parent in debt service.
In 2018 it accidentally made a profit. What did it do? It borrowed a whole load more money from its offshore parent. The profit vanished, and the following year it reported a before-tax loss. It has reported before-tax losses ever since.
Read 7 tweets

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