A few thoughts on why Macron’s decision to call parliamentary elections because the far-right did so well, which seems on the surface of it to be quite insane, might not be *that* insane
French parliamentary elections do not use the same electoral system as European elections. To win a seat as a deputé you have to win 50% in the first round, or if not face a run-off. Upshot: it’s a lot harder for a far-right candidate to win a seat in the national parliament
It would’ve been perfectly legit to argue that pmtry elections are every 5 years and if you don’t like the current parliament, tough — you’ll have your chance to vote them out eventually. But Le Pen et all would not have stopped screaming for an election. This nips it in the bud.
Macron does not have a majority in parliament and was facing a possible/probable vote of no confidence from Les Républicains after the summer anyway.
Is it chilling that Le Pen and her far-right rivals may together get up to 40% of the vote? Of course it is. But it is not at all surprising given both the results of the last presidential election and how polls had predicted the European elections would go in France.
Fact is: there are a lot of far-right ppl in France. A lot of people who want to see Le Pen in power, with an incredibly hardline immigration policy.
But you would also expect slightly more mainstream voters to show up for a pmtry election. Not many, perhaps. But some.
But you would also expect slightly more mainstream voters to show up for a pmtry election. Not many, perhaps. But some.
You can expect Macron’s + other mainstream parties to make this campaign all about the far-right threat. It’s an argument that has been used in many French elections and whose potency has been wearing off. Still, these results will scare some of the apathetic into turning up.
Macron will be hoping to pull off something similar in these elections to Pedro Sánchez, who everyone called crazy for calling early elections, and who made the whole thing about the need to fight back against the far-right, and who is, by the skin of his teeth, still in power.
Is it risky? Hugely. Did he have a choice? I’m not sure he did.
I still hate this website so please don’t expect me to be here anything other than sporadically, ok byeeeee
https://twitter.com/dakraemer/status/1799900654871167094
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