Thread by @GeorginaEWright

Why did Macron decide to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale (🇫🇷 lower house of parliament) & call early legislative elections. Only Macron's immediate entourage know but here are some personal thoughts 🧵:

1. Mix of reasons: end parliamentary deadlock; snap election focuses minds; show what the far-right truly cares about & what it is actually capable of doing; confidence & hubris that Macron can win the French over; rebuild republican camp. Thing is: is this possible in 3 weeks?

1. End parliamentary deadlock: 🇫🇷 government has a relative majority in parliament making it v tricky to pass legislation. Macron was always likely to dissolve parliament ahead of budget discussions this yr. But why so soon, and why give only 3 weeks?

2. Higher turnout: since early 2000s, legislative elections have taken place shortly after presidential election. Turnout tends to be high for presidential election & low for legislative. Ppl think "whatever, we know who the PR will be".

3. Higher turnout (2): hope is that more will turn up in 3 weeks to cast their vote & perhaps that French will thank Macron for "listening" and calling election following y'day's result (where far-right got close to 40%). "The President is right: a lot is at stake, let's vote".

3. Rebuild the Republican front: here is where I think it gets interesting. Macron isn't stupid -- he knows his party wd struggle to get majority. His strategy, as per @steph_sejourne comment y'day, might be to try and rebuild Republican front. This means...

4. ... that Macron won't put up candidates in seats held by centre-left (PS) & centre-right (LR). This does several things: give LR and PS the chance to hold/increase number of seats (good ahead of 2027) & focus their energy on combatting extremes (LFI & RN).

(4bis. Choice of where/where not to put candidates up is all down to the way legislative elections work: there are 2 rounds of voting; candidates need at least 12,5% of registered votes to go onto 2nd round. Fewer candidates = higher chance to getting through to 2nd round)

5. Rebuild the Republican front (3): Problem is.. why wd LR and PS ever agree to form an alliance with Macron? Might make tactical sense but politically, it's v risky. Plus, declarations by head of LR (Ciotti) and PS (Faure) this morning suggest they think this is a v bad idea.

6. No grand Republican front:
- PS is likely to try and create a "grand coalition of the Left" (making sure there is only 1 left-wing candidate per seat):
- LR against any sort of coalition with centre:

https://x.com/faureolivier/status/1800059200992952585?s=46

https://x.com/le_parisien/status/1800066559013994795?s=46

7. Overconfident Macron: I can see why this strategy is intellectually persuasive, but it also shows how disconnected Macron can be. Even Gabriel Attal, the PM, is said to have tried to dissuade him from dissolving parliament saying he wd resign instead:

https://x.com/bfmtv/status/1800061295795835334?s=46

8. Letting RN form a government & do a bad job of it: another theory is that if the RN (far right) wins a relative or absolute majority, it will form a gov and will do "so terribly" that the French will realise how "incompetent they are". If true, this is a terrible strategy too.

9. The case of Trump shows that no amount of incompetence can ever be enough to dissuade voters. And to think French voters will somehow come to a different conclusion than American voters is silly.

10. RN forming a government: there is also no reason to assume that RN would be "so incompetent" that the French wd suddenly vote differently in 2027. The French administration is good, solid, they'd be surrounded by good advice. Stay radical? Yes. Be incompetent? Not necessarily

11. Sometimes a sense that Macron thinks he can charm and win over the French through his words. But many are fed up with him & Macronisme.. and without a strong republican front, coupled with high levels of abstention, it is the extreme parties that stand to win. END