So this ceasefire resolution will most likely turn into a political debacle. It won’t, in this current iteration, end the war.
1) The proposal places the legal obligation to comply with the resolution solely on Hamas, not on Israel.
A senior Israeli Diplomat said after the security council resolution that they would press on in Gaza regardless of “Endless negotiations.”
2) The proposal shown to the UNSC claims that Israel has accepted the deal, but there is no way to verify this.
3) The details of the proposal were not shown to the members of the UNSC.
Therefore the US proposal is a legally ambiguous document that is susceptible to manipulation by the parties who control the terms and are not legally obliged to said resolution - i.e the US and Israel.
The clause opposing Israel’s “security buffer zone” was removed.
Points 1&4 are achieved thanks to pushback by Israel, who refused to have the resolution legally imposed on them, and who also refuse to leave Gaza.
The proposal therefore acts as cover for Israel, by placing the legal and political obligations for a ceasefire on Hamas, as a means to restructure the narrative and place the burden of the genocide on the Palestinian resistance itself.
The ambiguity of the proposal, as well as a lack of legal clarity on behalf of Israel, is an attempt to ambush Hamas, while simultaneously presenting the US as a broker of Peace that simply cannot work with an irrational actor.
Russia and China expressed serious concerns but they reluctantly accepted because they don't want to be viewed as an obstacle to what could potentially be a ceasefire, but there won’t be a ceasefire yet. They will just allow the U.S administration to expose itself.
The world will not be deceived by this attempt to pin the ceasefire failure on Hamas. China and Russia will then pin it on U.S and again, like everything else, it’s going to boomerang back on the United States.
Also, we have no reason to believe that Israel will stop its operations, even if a ceasefire is accepted by Hamas. How many UN resolutions has Israel defied. I stopped counting at 42… it’s much higher. This ain’t ending yet.
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The Hostage Rescue Operation conducted early this morning will have far-reaching unintended consequences.
Many are ecstatic right now about this first "success" after nearly 9 months, but there will be some hard realities and questions to answer come Monday:
1) The hostage families were gaining political traction calling for a ceasefire. Now their voice will be suppressed.
The Israeli establishment only cares about symbolic victories and will never admit that now they recovered 4 hostages, they’ll never get the opportunity again
Hamas will change its tactics and procedures to ensure this will never happen again.
2) How do you claim that a rescue operation that killed 100s of civilians in order to save 4 people, a success?
This disregard for Palestinian life continues to damage Israel's reputation.