If you want to make killer returns you need to accept two things: volatility and non-linear trajectories
Problem I see is most expect exponential outcomes but don’t think non-linearly in practice
When most shy away from volatility you can use it to your advantage. You know there will be a time when no one wants to touch crypto again. It happens every few years. Be prepared to bid - have cash on hand and diversified cash flow streams - to lean in.
Most importantly, be aware that every cell in your body will tell you not to invest during those moments of panic. Fear takes the driver seat when shit hits the fan.
Consider that things are never as bad or as good as they are portrayed. The most uncomfortable investments tend to be the highest performers.
Something that is consensus by definition is arbitraged out and returns typically will disappoint.
The world is increasingly connected. Information and capital is propagated at the speed at light and that leads to more disruptive changes in markets.
We’re more connected but not necessarily more informed. Markets are not efficient - never have and never will because they are ran by humans. But but wisdom of the crowds. Not really. Markets continue to become more heterogeneous in instruments, asset classes and market participants. Study cognitive biases.
Many live in an illusion that because they have greater access to information they’ll be more informed and sophisticated to make decisions but that’s not the case. Information you consume is curated and pre-packaged and confirmation bias becomes an even greater problem.
There are always pockets that are overlooked in any market environment. Be willing to venture into places that most are not paying attention to or have left for dead.
Be aware that sometimes what you think is well known may not be. Again, markets are not efficient. That’s been the story for crypto for the past decade. Most that join the industry think they’re late to the trade. That is a reflection of a lack of imagination of how disruptive and value accretive this industry will be. Terminal value is a wonderful imaginative concept we anchor valuations to but have faith based on glimpses of seeing the future unfolding in real time.
Timing is the key variable here most get lost in. Expecting an exponential outcome doesn’t follow a smooth line - in fact it shouldn’t so don’t expect that.
Gates Law: most people overestimate what can happen in 2 years and underestimate what can happen in 10. Most of the money is made by investors that continue to pay attention thru years 2-7.
Problem I see is most expect exponential outcomes but don’t think non-linearly in practice
When most shy away from volatility you can use it to your advantage. You know there will be a time when no one wants to touch crypto again. It happens every few years. Be prepared to bid - have cash on hand and diversified cash flow streams - to lean in.
Most importantly, be aware that every cell in your body will tell you not to invest during those moments of panic. Fear takes the driver seat when shit hits the fan.
Consider that things are never as bad or as good as they are portrayed. The most uncomfortable investments tend to be the highest performers.
Something that is consensus by definition is arbitraged out and returns typically will disappoint.
The world is increasingly connected. Information and capital is propagated at the speed at light and that leads to more disruptive changes in markets.
We’re more connected but not necessarily more informed. Markets are not efficient - never have and never will because they are ran by humans. But but wisdom of the crowds. Not really. Markets continue to become more heterogeneous in instruments, asset classes and market participants. Study cognitive biases.
Many live in an illusion that because they have greater access to information they’ll be more informed and sophisticated to make decisions but that’s not the case. Information you consume is curated and pre-packaged and confirmation bias becomes an even greater problem.
There are always pockets that are overlooked in any market environment. Be willing to venture into places that most are not paying attention to or have left for dead.
Be aware that sometimes what you think is well known may not be. Again, markets are not efficient. That’s been the story for crypto for the past decade. Most that join the industry think they’re late to the trade. That is a reflection of a lack of imagination of how disruptive and value accretive this industry will be. Terminal value is a wonderful imaginative concept we anchor valuations to but have faith based on glimpses of seeing the future unfolding in real time.
Timing is the key variable here most get lost in. Expecting an exponential outcome doesn’t follow a smooth line - in fact it shouldn’t so don’t expect that.
Gates Law: most people overestimate what can happen in 2 years and underestimate what can happen in 10. Most of the money is made by investors that continue to pay attention thru years 2-7.
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