T. Ryan Gregory πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jun 23, 2024 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
Confused about the variants you're hearing about most right now? Here they are, explained. 🧡
XBB.1.5 ("Kraken")

What it is: A descendant of XBB, which was a recombinant between two BA.2 lineages.

Status: Not circulating anymore.

Why relevant: It is the variant targeted by current vaccine boosters. XBB.1.5 vs. XBB mutations. From cob-spectrum.org
BA.2.86 ("Pirola")

What it is: A highly divergent variant that evolved within a single host who was infected for a year. Descended from BA.2.

Status: Not circulating anymore.

Why relevant: Most of what is circulating now descended from it, having replaced the XBBs. BA.2.86 vs. BA.2 mutations. From cob-spectrum.org
JN.1 ("Pirola clan")

What it is: Descendant of BA.2.86, with one additional spike mutation. JN.1 = BA.2.86.1.1.

Current status: Almost gone now.

Why relevant: Most of what is circulating now is descended from it. It may be targeted in the next vaccine update. JN.1 vs. BA.2.86 mutations. From cob-spectrum.org
KP.2 ("Pirola clan", "FLiRT")

What it is: Descendant of JN.1 with "FLiRT" mutations (F456L + R346T). KP.2 = JN.1.11.1.2.

Status: Dominant in some places, competing with other rising variants like KP.3 and LB.1.

Why relevant: Important mutations. May be targeted in updated vax. KP.2 vs. JN.1 mutations. From cob-spectrum.org
KP.3 ("Pirola clan", "FLuQE")

What it is: Descendant of JN.1 with FLuQE mutations (F456L + Q493E). KP.3 =JN.1.11.1.3.

Status: Rising rapidly in many areas.

Why relevant: May outcompete KP.2. KP.3 vs. JN.1 mutations. From cob-spectrum.org
LB.1 ("Pirola clan", "FLiRT")

What it is: Descendant of JN.1 with FLiRT mutations (F456L + R346T). Evolved FLiRT mutations independently of KP.2. LB.1 = JN.1.9.2.1.

Status: Rising in some areas.

Why relevant: Important mutations. Competitive vs. KP.2. LB.1 vs. JN.1 mutations. From cob-spectrum.org

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More from @TRyanGregory

Apr 29
Btw folks, what happened is that QuΓ©bec saved us all from Poilievre. Bloc voters went Liberal this time to keep him out.

Ontario, not so much. Big gains for the Cons.

BC was where the NDP did best last election, and this time it went Lib and Con.
So, we essentially traded a Liberal minority with progressive parties being very influential to a Liberal minority with a huge Conservative opposition and minimal progressive representation.

The fact that 41.4% voted Con (vs. 43.5% Lib) isn't a good sign either.
Yes, I'm relieved that it's not Poilievre as PM and I'm glad he lost his seat. But beyond that, we're not in a very good place overall. The major rightward shift isn't going to be good, especially when the Liberals eventually lose to the Conservatives.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 1
It's very important to be clear about what is happening in the Canadian election and how progressives need to approach it. 🧡

The LPC surge toward a majority is due primarily to a collapse of support for the NDP and Bloc, and much less so a drop in support for the CPC.

1/ Vote and seat projections for Canada.
Vote and seat projections for Ontario.
Vote and seat projections for QuΓ©bec.
This means that the Libs are mostly picking up progressive voters who are planning to vote strategically to stop the Cons. They are not picking up huge numbers of "moderate conservatives".

Cons support is generally committed but Libs support isn't.



2/angusreid.org/canadian-elect…
The *winning strategy* for Libs is to make strategic voting by progressives as painless as possible by leaning *leftward*.

The winning approach for progressive voters is to make it clear they cannot be taken for granted and do not agree with rightward drift.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
Thoughts on pandemics, inclusion, annexation, Indigenous issues, climate, genocide, and more and the connections I see among them. I fully acknowledge that I am writing this from a position of substantial intersectional privilege.

🧡

1/
I really hoped that the (ongoing) SARS-CoV-2 pandemic would inspire us to make meaningful, positive changes in society. Indeed, early on it seemed like privileged people finally understood what it was like to lack access to things we otherwise take for granted.

2/
Sadly, but perhaps predictably, we instead rushed back to the status quo as quickly as we could. If anything, things are worse now in terms of public health, accessibility and inclusion, and global health equity. Infectious disease has been actively normalized.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 8
Please, stop making these terrible arguments in order to dismiss threats of annexation by the US. 🧡

1. "He's just joking, trolling, negotiating, or being Donald."

Clearly not. Stop it.

1/
2. "Trump can't just declare war on Canada."

He wouldn't bother and he doesn't need to. The last time the US formally declared war was 1942. See every US invasion or occupation since WW2.

2/
3. "The US can't invade because of the constitution / international law."

He doesn't care about either of those things. See everything he's currently doing.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 17
I'm sure infectious disease minimizers are attributing the record-shattering surge of severe flu this year to "immunity debt". Let's think this through, shall we?

🧡

1/
1. Serious mitigations ended more than 4 years ago. Why would immunity debt only kick in now? And why wasn't 4 flu seasons without mitigations enough to repay whatever "debt" there was?

2/
We wrote this more than 2 years ago.

calgaryherald.com/opinion/column…
Read 12 tweets
Feb 16
🧡

Just to recap what is happening, since public health has gone AWOL:

* This is the worst flu season in 15 years. Not just number of cases but number of *severe* cases.

1/
* H5N1 ("avian flu") is getting further out of control in the US. It is getting closer and closer to a human-to-human transmission outbreak.

* Measles is resurgent thanks to low vaccination rates.

* Tuberculosis is making a comeback.

* Many norovirus outbreaks.

2/
* COVID rates are lower than in past winters, but a) they're still way too high to ignore, and b) that's because there was a surge in summer (it's not seasonal) and the next major lineage of variants has not arrived yet.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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