A word of warning for ppl looking for smoking hot-takes on the French elections tonight: actually, were unlikely to find out much and it'll be very hard to predict the final results, especially bc this election is extremely unpredictable. The few things to watch out for are...
1. Participation. The higher it is, the more people care and the more unpredictable the results and modelling of future results will be. If we exceed 70%, even the best pollsters and analysts will struggle to model the future.
2. Vote share. We will get a sense of the vote share of the main parties tonight, although this is not necessarily a good guide to the final results because the dynamics of vote transfers and withdrawals for the runoffs are very uncertain.
3. Vote recommendations ("consignes de vote"). Listen carefully to what the main political figures advise their voters to do in the 2nd round. Especially Macron and his party. Will they stick with the ni-ni strategy of 2022 or advise ppl to vote against the RN?
4. Look for unexpected local surges in support for candidates. This can give a sense of local dynamics. Also look out for variance with European election results. We will almost certainly see totally different voting patterns.
Beyond this, it's mostly guesswork. The political horse-trading between now and 7 July will be crucial at it will set the tone for the post-election period. But we really have to wait until next Sunday for proper, solid analysis.
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