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Warfare Analysis

@warfareanalysis

Oct 17

Everything you need to know about the recent events between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Thread: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6,7,8

1.

What is the Durand Line?!

After the UK failed to occupy Afghanistan in its colonial campaigns, in 1893 an agreement was signed between Sir Mortimer Durand, a British colonial diplomat representing British India, and Amir Abdur Rahman Khan, the ruler of Afghanistan at the time, to end the British offensive wars and Afghan defensive wars between the UK and Afghanistan.

The treaty drew a 2,640-kilometer (1,640-mile) buffer zone from Afghanistan, separating it from British India. This buffer zone later became known as the Durand Line.

Analysts and historians say that the UK aimed through this treaty to establish a buffer zone between Afghanistan and British India (which today would be India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan).

Even after failing to occupy Afghanistan, it remained useful and served the British colonial establishment as a buffer country between the expansionist Russian Empire and the British Indian colonies.

This line cut through Pashtun tribal territories, dividing ethnic Pashtuns between the two sides, what is now eastern and southern Afghanistan, and northwestern Pakistan (the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa).

-Afghanistan has never formally recognized the Durand Line as an international border.

-Pakistani Pashtuns view it as an artificial colonial division of their homeland.

From 1893 to 2002, this annexed tribal Pashtun area was semi-autonomous. The British appointed leaders from the tribes to oversee the administration and paid them from British funds so that they wouldn’t fight British India, even though there were no permanent British soldiers present.

When Pakistan was created, this buffer zone was given to the newly established state; however, the semi-autonomous status remained.

Pakistani authorities called this area the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with no permanent presence of Pakistani forces or police in the area.

However in 2002

Exactly one year after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the Pakistani authorities changed the region’s status from semi-autonomous to militarized, sending permanent Pakistani forces into the tribal area and ending the British colonial law that had governed it since 1901 under the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR).

This move was directly linked to the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, aimed at preventing Pashtuns from aiding their people across the line or joining the fight against the American occupation.

The plan largely failed, as the former British colonial buffer zone is vast and mountainous, making it difficult to control or monitor.

This move by Pakistani authorities was met with violent rejection from the Pakistani Pashtuns. Numerous groups emerged to fight the new presence of Pakistani armed forces.

In 2007, some of these groups united and formed one organization, calling themselves the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

They went on to carry out bloody attacks against Pakistani police and armed forces.

Moving on to August 15, 2021. (next post)

2,

August 15, 2021

After the U.S. withdrawal, driven by its inability to sustain the losses from continuous Taliban ambushes and attacks, and after establishing a regime in Kabul with billions spent on its army and equipment, the United States left these resources behind for that army in a last attempt, if this regime stood against the Taliban, it would safeguard American interests at a lower cost than direct occupation, similar to the Arab proxy regimes today.

However, the Taliban took over the entire country and entered the American-backed Kabul regime’s palace on August 15, 2021. (Video)

All the resources the U.S. had left for the Kabul regime’s army became the assets of the newly established Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s army.

No one expected that, and it shook the foundations of regimes in Muslim-majority countries before the Western ones.

The Taliban inherited a state dependent on foreign aid, developmental assistance covered about 75% of the previous government’s budget. Foreign aid distorted the economy and fueled corruption.

American negotiators asked the Taliban to comply with banking standards such as anti–terror financing and anti–money laundering guarantees.

The Taliban agreed and welcomed auditors appointed by Washington to Kabul. However, the United States also wanted the Taliban to remove those it had appointed to lead the central bank.

The Taliban grew suspicious of taking advice from its former occupier, and the negotiations collapsed.

Afghan financial officials keep the state budget secret, sharing information with ministries only as needed.

The Taliban view transparency as accountability before Afghan citizens and companies, not before foreign governments.

Taliban officials often say there is no need to explain their financial affairs to the very countries that fought them until 2021, especially since those countries maintain sanctions and unilaterally cut aid.

They also point out that neighboring countries are not transparent about their government budgets either.

Tensions between the two sides escalated in September 2022, when the Biden administration unilaterally decided to transfer half of Afghanistan’s $7 billion in state reserves held in the United States to a fund in Switzerland.

The Afghan government has repeatedly demanded the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Afghan central bank assets frozen abroad, the restoration of international banking ties, and the resumption of stalled infrastructure projects, or at least the settlement of accounts with Afghan contractors who were never paid for work halted after the U.S. withdrawal.

Within weeks of taking office, Trump decided to halt aid to Afghanistan entirely, and soon after, many of America’s allies reduced their aid budgets as well.

Trump then demanded the return of U.S. weapons left behind for the client regime’s army, which collapsed within months against the Taliban in 2021, and he also called for the Bagram base and issued threats.

Added to all that, Pakistan closed land borders with Afghanistan, further strangling the Afghan economy, which depends heavily on agricultural exports.

Iran Pakistan also expelled Afghan workers, who had been a major source of foreign currency for Afghanistan amid severe sanctions.

As of now, Russia is the only country that has officially recognized the Taliban government of Afghanistan.

Moving forward to October 9, 2025 (read the next post)

Read 10 tweets

Warfare Analysis

@warfareanalysis

Sep 21

Here’s proof that Israel is using ISIS-like remotely controlled vehicle bombs against civilians in Gaza.

🧵 Thread: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

1,

This is footage of Israeli army remotely controlled vehicle suicide bomber in Jabalia neighborhood, northern Gaza.

Filmed on May 20, 2024: the first time these ISIS-style remotely controlled bomb vehicles were observed in Gaza.

2,

Tracking Gencoide published two photos showing the Israeli army emptying two 1-ton plastic water tanks, which they then filled explosives, loaded into a reengineered old APC converted to remote control, and sent to neighborhoods in Gaza City, where they were detonated remotely.

Read 11 tweets

Warfare Analysis

@warfareanalysis

Aug 25

Here’s what happened today at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip

🧵 Thread 1,2,3,4,6,7,8

1,

Israeli bombing targeted the reception building at Nasser Medical Complex.

The reception building is usually where journalists gather to film the victims of Israeli bombings on southern Gaza as they arrive at the hospital.

2,

Footage of the moment Israel bombed the hospital

Read 9 tweets

Warfare Analysis

@warfareanalysis

Jul 19

What happened in Suwayda?

Here’s everything we know,

🧵 Thread: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

1. What‘s Suwayda?

Suwayda is a province in southern Syria, home to around 450,000 Syrian residents, roughly two-thirds Druze and one-third Sunnis (mainly Bedouins), at about 150,000.

The Druze in Syria are a religious minority, numbering around 700,000 to 800,000 Syria wide almost half of them in suwayda.

Though ethnically Arab, the Druze follow their own distinct religion (Druze faith) they are nicknamed also Bani Maaruf, they are not Muslim.

Druze exist primarily in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.

Israel even has a Druze brigade in its army, with Druze soldiers actively participating in Gaza.

The highest-ranking Druze officer killed by Hamas in Gaza is Colonel Ehsan Daxa, commander of the Israeli army’s 401st Armored Brigade. He was killed by Hamas in Jabalia on October 20, 2024 (#photo 1).

The Bedouins

#Photo 2: Map of the Houran region that spans southern Syria (mainly Daraa, Suwayda, and Quneitra) and northern Jordan (especially Irbid, Mafraq, and parts of Ajloun and Amman) Hourani tribes are not limited to this region alone,

And the Hourani tribes in Syria alone number in the millions, with cousin tribes spread throughout Syria and beyond.

The Hourani tribes are part of Syria’s Sunni majority.

After the Assad regime, representing the Shia Alawite minority, launched a war on the population with support from Iranian-backed Shia militias and the Russian air force, the overwhelming majority of victims were Sunnis.

Over 6 million Syrians became refugees in neighboring countries, and 7 million were displaced within Syria, many of whom still live in tents.

The death toll exceeds 656,000,
the vast majority of those killed and displaced were Sunnis

(Feel free to fact check these figures)

2.

On July 13, 2025,

Israeli-backed Hijri Druze militias stormed the Maqous neighborhood in Suwayda, home to Sunni Bedouins.

They killed numerous civilians, set fire to homes, and kidnapped women and children (#video 1).

They also handcuffed Bedouin civilian men and executed them (#photo 2).

Entered Bedouin homes and executed its residents (#photo3)

To this day (July 13), the Syrian Interim Government has no presence in Suwayda, as the Israeli-backed Hijri militias have refused to allow any presence of the revolutionary government in the province.

Read 13 tweets

Warfare Analysis

@warfareanalysis

Jul 1

President Morsi vs. Coup General Sisi

Their statements on the same events.

🧵 Thread: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,

1,

1- Elected President Morsi:

“As you know, I still live in a rented apartment at my own expense in Fifth compound, (a district in New Cairo), and I will continue to live there.”

2- Coup General Sisi:
“I built presidential palaces, and I will build more.”

2,

1- Elected President Morsi:

“Bribery، NO. Favouritism, NO. Injustice against the people through corruption, NO. Wasting people’s time, NO. Wasting the Egypt’s opportunities, NO.”

2- Coup General Sisi:

“You mentioned local administrations and said there’s corruption, HAHA…… what do you want me to do? HAHA.”

Read 8 tweets

Warfare Analysis

@warfareanalysis

Jun 22

In the 20th wave of Iran’s attack on israel today,

Here’s all the available information and footage from the attack.

🧵 Thread: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,7,8,9,10

1,

A – According to the Israeli Home Front Command, sirens sounded in central Israel, including Tel Aviv and its surroundings, as well as in northern Israel, including Haifa and nearby areas, at around 7:59 AM Jerusalem time today.

B – Iranian media: The spokesman for Operation True Promise 3 announced the launch of the 20th wave of the operation this morning, targeting:

•Ben Gurion Airport
•The Israeli biological research center
•Regime support bases and various levels of command and control centers

2,

A- According to the Israeli Hebrew outlet Maariv, Iran launched a heavy missile barrage consisting of 40 missiles toward Israel.

B-Footage of the missiles over the West Bank.