Curious about the consequence of Labour's dubious selections?
I've taken time to map out the affiliations/party positioning of every candidate across the UK.
And estimated wins based on the MRP polls.
Bear in mind a supposedly left wing membership chose these candidates. /1
I've taken time to map out the affiliations/party positioning of every candidate across the UK.
And estimated wins based on the MRP polls.
Bear in mind a supposedly left wing membership chose these candidates. /1
It was pretty easy to work out most candidates' affiliations by their record, tweets, FB posts listed factions etc.
Firstly, the most left-leaning (mostly SCG). Few new candidates from this faction were longlisted.
Those in bold are expected to win under the polls I've seen.
Firstly, the most left-leaning (mostly SCG). Few new candidates from this faction were longlisted.
Those in bold are expected to win under the polls I've seen.
Secondly, the "soft left". This is where it gets extremely subject. Many would place these closer to the right, some more to the left.
But the justification for my estimates is listed at the top.
But the justification for my estimates is listed at the top.
Unsurprisingly, the main centre-left faction has far and away the largest group. Candidates from the "middle of the party".
A great number describe themselves as Fabians/social democrats/gradualist democratic socialists.
The vast majority of these were *not* pro-Corbyn.
A great number describe themselves as Fabians/social democrats/gradualist democratic socialists.
The vast majority of these were *not* pro-Corbyn.
The "old right". I've taken care to differentiate this faction from the New Labour/Blairite faction.
I would argue unlike the Blair years, this is unmistakably the group in the ascendancy on the NEC and at top of party.
They're also arguably *more* factional/anti-Labour left.
I would argue unlike the Blair years, this is unmistakably the group in the ascendancy on the NEC and at top of party.
They're also arguably *more* factional/anti-Labour left.
Finally - here's the most stridently "New Labour"/fiscally liberal faction, which will be at its largest since the Blair years.
Some of these may also be Labour First/Fabian types, so it's fluid, but a great many of these are effusive about the NL years and/or Progress members.
Some of these may also be Labour First/Fabian types, so it's fluid, but a great many of these are effusive about the NL years and/or Progress members.
Just to reiterate: this is all subjective and merely a loose illustration of what the PLP will look like post-election.
But I think it's undeniable that very few out-and-out socialists have made it all the way to this stage. Most of the 37 listed were already MPs.
But I think it's undeniable that very few out-and-out socialists have made it all the way to this stage. Most of the 37 listed were already MPs.
My estimates
Lab Left - 6% of candidates / 8% of likely winners
Soft left - 10% of candidates / 15% of likely winners
Centre-left- 46% of candidates / 39% likely winners
Old Right - 17% of candidates / 17% of likely winners
New Lab - 21% of candidates / 21% of likely winners
Lab Left - 6% of candidates / 8% of likely winners
Soft left - 10% of candidates / 15% of likely winners
Centre-left- 46% of candidates / 39% likely winners
Old Right - 17% of candidates / 17% of likely winners
New Lab - 21% of candidates / 21% of likely winners
my bad it cut off a few of these.
You might find this interesting @CharlieMansell
(certainly not claiming this is anywhere near scientific!)
(certainly not claiming this is anywhere near scientific!)
@tribunemagazine @LabourList @OpenLabour @socialistcam
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