Thread by @michaeldweiss

New "Karl" thread on the latest Ukraine developments, with @holger_r: 🧵

"Since we last spoke in May, there haven’t been substantial changes on the frontline. Russia is still pressing but without remarkable results. The pressure is heaviest on the eastern front near Pokrovske, west from Avdiivka."

"Russia's Kharvkiv operation has failed. Ukraine has liberated part of the areas that Russia captured in the beginning of the operation. Russia's losses are huge there. They have even brought additional units from the southern front to continue attacking. This indicates they don’t have considerable reserves."

"Back in May we were still waiting for the U.S to lift restrictions to use American weapons against the Russian military beyond Ukraine's borders. Ukraine did get the permission to attack Russian bases in close vicinity of the border."

"It is a step in the right direction but doesn’t solve all issues. Ukraine still can’t attack Russian airbases farther away, which they are using to attack Ukraine with glide bombs. This is one of the mains obstacles for Ukraine right now."

"Russian Air Force activity has been growing again. There are more glide bombs. Last month Ukraine shot down only 1-2 Russian planes. A month earlier it was 5 planes in a short period."

"Remarkably, Russia has been forced to withdraw all of its surface ships from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. These are ships that can fire Kalibr missiles. The last Kalibr attacks have indeed come from the Black Sea, which is both a short-term military failure as well as a strategic problem for Russia."

"The numbers of missiles and drones that Russia is using to attack Ukraine are relatively low. This indicates that the production of both is not going so well as Russia has declared and as Western media has been buying from Russian propaganda."

"Russia's drone attacks have temporarily been hindered by Ukraine's repeated strikes at Cape Chauda in Crimea. This has forced Russia to send out drones from inside its borders, making the distances to targets greater."

"Ukraine’s ammunition supply has clearly improved and they are achieving parity with Russia on most stretches of the frontlines. What Russia has more in numbers, Ukraine can make up for with better efficiency and accuracy."

"This improvement is a clear results of the U.S aid package. The results of the so-called Czech initiative are only now starting to arrive on the frontlines."

"But Russia's continuous attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure have made an impact. Ukraine’s situation is the worst that it has been ever since the start of the war. It will be a tough winter. They will not be able to fix everything beforehand."

"Consequently, Ukraine is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure in Russia. There are extensive power cuts in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk."

"The first F-16s should arrive any day now and it looks like Ukraine can use them to attack Russian planes inside Russian airspace. This is a positive development."

"Politically a remarkable development is the Russia-North Korea love story. Russia clearly needs North Korean ammunition. It's another sign that their production capability is not as good as declared."

"This love affair will bring a negative impact to Russia diplomatically. If the Global South doesn’t see anything awkward in Russia-China relations, it clearly treats North Korea as a pariah. Southeast Asian countries are looking at it with confusion and irritation."

"The upcoming Washington summit will not bring anything too positive for Ukraine. Biden’s administration is not ready to approve Ukraine’s further progress toward NATO membership. The West still sees Ukraine as somewhere in the gray zone and not unambiguously as part of the West."

"The administration’s behavior is truly regrettable. Germany could be convinced if the U.S came along but the White House is not shifting."

"The next few months on the ground should indicate that Russia's current attack potential is becoming exhausted. Russia will need to create new reserves and regroup. Their losses of more than 1,000 troops per day ever since the start of the Kharkiv operation are huge."

"This will require Putin to consider mobilization again. At the same time, Ukraine’s mobilization efforts should start showing impact in the autumn. How motivated the new troops will be is a different issue. Mobilization is not popular at all in Ukraine and the number of people trying to illegally leave the country is higher than ever."

"If Russia wants to keep the initiative on the ground, it will need to take new steps. The weaponry and ammunition as well as Ukrainian troop numbers are steadily improving. But more broadly, it is very difficult to predict a significant change in the frontline by end of the year." /END