Thread by @CharlotteAlter

I think Harris’s chances against Trump are being way underestimated and here’s why:

1) She can run on the (largely popular) Biden-Harris agenda: huge infrastructure gains, big climate wins, student debt, etc…and can actually sell it because she can do public appearances

2) Trump’s big weakness is that he’s a convicted felon (which
many voters say is disqualifying). She is a prosecutor! She can drive home that point and make the race a referendum on Trump’s criminality, not Biden’s age

3) Polls have consistently shown that voters just want *someone else*. Harris is someone else, and would likely get a big enthusiasm bump just from being neither Biden nor Trump

4) She can get Biden’s war chest, one of his biggest advantages

4) Before the disastrous debate, one of Biden’s biggest problems with the base was disapproval of his handling of Gaza. Harris gives the Dems an opportunity to offer a candidate who isn’t as identified with that issue

5) yes, there is racism and sexism. But at the point, Dem task is not converting Trump voters, it’s convincing soft Dem/Independent/persuadable voters to not sit this race out. Offering a candidate with the benefit of incumbency without the advanced age might help.

6) She has spent a lot of her time as VP on reproductive rights, arguably Dems strongest issue, and can reframe the race on to be a referendum on abortion (while Biden absolutely flubbed that question on the debate)

7) Some polls have Trump gaining with some Black voters, as Biden’s support softens. Nominating Harris wouldn’t be a surefire way for Dems to win back Black voters (it’s not that simple,) but it probably wouldn’t *hurt*

8) Biden has a huge enthusiasm problem. Nobody is *excited* about him, especially after Gaza, but ESPECIALLY after the debate. Harris has a small but devoted network of super-fans (the K-Hive) who can give others permission to get super excited about her

Permission structure is important. One reason Gaza has been such a bad issue for Biden is that ppl who loudly support Biden online would often get flooded with attacks over Israel (see: “genocide Joe”) That made it hard to build the online enthusiasm needed to win a prez race

9) Yes Harris has been attacked for years, but Fox News nation is already MAGA— not gettable votes for Dems. The Harris haters aren’t Biden voters anyway. She provides a path for the voters who dislike Trump but can’t vote for an 81yr old who seems to be in serious decline