adair.hl Profile picture
Jul 4 22 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Hyperliquid Thesis Part 2: Hyperliquid has promising fundamentals and undeniable product/market fit, but its early cult is its true MOAT.

First we'll explore some of the quantitative and qualitative data, then I will introduce you to the newest emerging cult on CT, or who I will be referring to as...

'The Hyper Liquidated'

Growing Fundamentals

As of 7/2/24, In the last 12 months HL has…

- Facilitated $222.4bn in trading volume
- Received $400.2mm in capital inflows
- Amassed 149,519 new users

All of this data is public on:

Nearly every single chart is up and to the right...the type of stats you want to see for a new platform.stats.hyperliquid.xyzImage
"But this is just a bunch of wash trading from sybil farmers during the points program. These are not real users." Valid.

So, let's take a look at HL on @artemis__xyz and see how HL fares relative to its competition on a user basis and then let's look at it's trading volume pre and post points program to tell a more accurate story.
Hyperliquid Has ~7000 Real DAU and Growing

As expected, it's culmulative user base on its public stats page is massivly inflated due to airdrop farmers, however, relative to other perp dexes and platforms it still boasts the highest number of DAU...around ~7K beating out @JupiterExchange and destroying other perp dexes like the former market leader @dYdX, @GMX_IO, and @vertex_protocol. RIP @DriftProtocol and @aevoxyz. Lol.

h/t: @0xOmnia for artemis report.Image
However, given the team's ambition, this is to be expected. @KingJulianIAm made it very clear they're coming for the 2 biggest fish: @binance and @Bybit_Official. Image
Beyond an genuine user base Monthly Trading Volume by Month (Pre and Post Points Program) Is Nearly The Same

Nov: $3.98bn
Dec: $10.3bn
Jan: $17.8bn
Feb: $34bn
March: $52.2bn
April: $44.9bn
Average: $27.2bn

May: $25bn
June: $26.4bn
Average: $25.7bn

Conclusion: HL average monthly trading volume didn't really change after the points program ended. This would indicate, its points program was successful in not only acquiring new users, but retaining its power users at the very least. This is true product/market fit.Image
CT Loves HyperLiquid

I've been keeping receipts ever since I started using the platform and I wanted to share them here to give you some 'qualitative' data on its product/market fit.
Traders At All Levels Seem to Love HL

Some of the most well known traders, trading educators, quant traders, and emerging traders all seem to love hyperliquid.

Bigger Accounts

Quant Traders


Emerging Trading Accounts


I actually have a ton more screenshots, but twitter only lets me use 4 photos per post, so I'll leave it there.

My point is this: There is plenty of hard and soft data to conclude that hyperliquid has promising fundamentals and has accomplished product/market fit. Most projects accomplish neither and are entirely built on speculation.

However, as @0xJim points out here. That isn't enough. How will HL ensure its relevance across multiple crypto cycles and not suffer the fate of former darlings? I think it's actually the early cult that will cement a MOAT for HL.

Meet The Hyper Liquidated

You've heard of BTC Maxis, Ethereans, Soylona Manlets, Link Marines, the XRP Army, and Lunatics.

Now Meet 'The Hyper Liquidated'

You see, nothing binds a cult or a community more together than picture is worth a thousand words.

95%+ of HL users are down bad (to the tune of $28.6mm)...HL is indeed the 'retail' perp dex and it shows...

And we are bound together by our losses. Kek. Image
@delucinator said it best "Study profitable losses"

In season 1 points program, it became clear that liquidated users got a bigger point allocation. Leading to several users intentionally getting liquidated for more points.

However, out of the ashes, the Hyper Liquidated have risen. Early cult like behaviour can be spotted everywhere.

"I view its current valuation as a complete and utter dislocation relative to what I expect Hyperliquid to eventually be valued at and have allocated just about every last dollar to this thesis."

@0xfhd_ has gone all in. Many such cases.

Merch, hoodies, swag. "The Hoodie Stays on!" @EmZ_Special @janklimo @RHnKHhhb

@Web3Quant learns about the best perp dex. Raid.

@0xGoldenDegen learns what the solution is to all the shortcomings of eth, ton, and sol. Raid.

@cuntycakes123 Watch Ox_Kun get jumped by the hyper liquidated. Raid.

The evidence is clear: An early cult is forming.

And take it from the guy who ran it up from 0-9 figures. Bet on Cults.

Also @Rewkang while you're touching grass during this choppy summer market, please read my thread and pump my HL bag. Thanks.

Growing fundamentals + product/market fit + cult = MOAT. And this wraps up part 2 to my thesis.

Part 1: Hyperliquid is built by the most elite team in crypto.
Part 2: Hyperliquid has promising fundamentals and undeniable product/market fit, but its early cult is its true MOAT.

Stay tuned for part 3 and 4 where I will delve into the most compelling, memeable narratives that will drive HL PA and my predictions for TGE and cycle top.

If you found this helpful, likes/retweets/follows and most of all joining the HL community through my referral link are much appreciated:

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More from @crypto_adair

Jun 28
Hyperliquid: Why I believe it has the potential to reach $800+ point this cycle.

Thesis Part 1: Hyperliquid is built by the most elite team in crypto.

Here’s why you need to watch them closely this cycle and join the early hyperliquid cult.


Originally HL set out to be the best perp dex in crypto. By many metrics - growing trading volume, growing users, growing revenue, etc - they are well on pace to accomplish that (and I will dig into this more in part 2 of my thesis). Once the team realized this, they 10xed the vision.

"When you see a 100x, you drop everything to make that a reality. Factors of <2 are insignificant. Big things take time to build, but nothing else is worth building."


Per their docs page, @chameleon_jeff and @iliensinc were Harvard classmates. Whether you hate or love the perception around Harvard it is undeniably one of the most competitive colleges to be admitted to.

I didn’t attend an Ivy league, but I have worked with and reported to many Harvard grads over the last decade at various high-growth startups and one unifying theme in my experience is clear to me: Harvard grad output is unmatched.

They get 10x more done than the average person in addition to having the unique ability to process a ton of data points to make really good business decisions. Raw IQ is through the roof.

Jeff and iliensinc have reaffirmed this bias for me in the way they have built a scalable perp dex with a small dev team of 5.

They’re all 10x engineers and it’s scary how much they have accomplished with such a small team.Image
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