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Jul 5 16 tweets 4 min read Read on X
I think Jon’s argument here is to a degree a straw man. He says at the bottom that the half dozen or so stakeholders in this conversation need to pick the best candidate. And if it’s Harris, he says, great, off to the races. His argument here seems to be…
2/ that the only reason to pick Harris is to avoid the wrath of a bunch of identity politics activist busybodies who are threatening to divide the party if Harris doesn’t get the nod. I don’t think that’s the case. As I’ve written, I think skipping over the black woman veep …
3/ when the vp is the natural person to take over for the president and the party is defined by the support of women and African Americans well … that’s a problem. A real probably and it doesn’t need rabble rousers to make it one. But there are other reasons. First is legitimacy.
4/ Harris was chosen by the American people to take over for president if he can’t serve. Millions of Democrats just voted de facto to nominate her again as veep. It is more than just a poli sci problem to say, welp those votes don’t matter we’re going to do something totally …
5/ different. We have systems for making political decisions in this country. You can’t just blithely toss them out the window. If you are going to you need to cleave as close to sources of political legitimacy as you can. Another reason in Harris’s favor. Far more than any …
6/ of the other contenders Harris has had major vetting and national media scrutiny. None of the governors have ever seen anything like that. And we’ve never seen any of them perform on the national stage before. These are both massive risks Dems wld go into totally blind.
7/ Jon and I agree that a mini campaign is ridiculous. There’s no legitimate basis on which to hold such a monstrosity. And let’s state for the record that a huge issue activists would push to the fore would be Gaza. We know that right? The nominal voters are delegates …
8/ who have no legitimate basis on which to make such a decision. They were chosen solely to be rubber stamp votes for Joe Biden. Crazy idea. But let’s go back to the legitimacy question. This is not just a political sci nerd question. Let’s say the big six meets and comes …
9/ out and says we’ve talked about and the ticket is Whitmer/shapiro. Whoever feels like they lost in that decision will say wtf? On what basis or what right are you making this decision. This is not an age that is friendly to close door deals. My guess at least is that that …
10/ makes substantial numbers of people feel aggrieved, cues them up for blame casting if Dems lose, etc. The logic of picking Harris is precisely the legitimacy of the call and the fact that it follows the most basic pattern of American …
11/ politics, veeps succeed presidents. It’s the logical and clear default and because it is I think it will get broad buy in on that basis. It’s not a back room deal. It’s just the normal order of things. If Biden withdraws he says, I’m out, Harris was chosen by the country …
12/ and then again by Democrats this year as Biden successor. It’s quick and clean, it’s the default. Biden says it’s his choice, the other six agree and I think all Democrats agree and you plow ahead. I could add a few other reasons. But my main one is to say that just …
13/ acting like the issue not being cowed by a few activists is I think a straw man. There are several interrelated reasons why Harris is the logical and I think inevitable choice. FINAL POINT: I’m not a huge Harris stan. In fact while I began the 2020 cycle thinking she was …
14/ one I was disappointed in the campaign she ran. If it were totally up to me and I didn’t have to worry about any of these other issues I think I’d probably pick Gretchen Whitmer. But who gives a fuck what I think? People vote for a reason. It’s the font of democratic …
15/ legitimacy. You can’t just toss that all aside like it doesn’t matter. You have do your best cleave to decisions that has at least been ratified by democratic means even if a full election is no longer possible. Critically, I think that path also gives the …
16/ best odds for maintaining the unity of the Democratic coalition and thus beating Donald Trump.

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More from @joshtpm

Jun 19
The answers you get from Trumpers when you point out chronology of the Trump Crime Wave that Joe Biden had to clean up are quite something. And something in the sense of a spasm of special pleading, racism, whataboutism, what is time really?,and don’t be mean to Dear Leaderism.
I really have engaged this question with many of these folks. The answers are comical and revealing. We start with the calendar and how time works. And once we get past when 2020 is the space time continuum and I ask again what about the Trump Crime Wave you get an ….
3/ an answer which is basically “Trump didn’t do that. It was black people and their globalist allies when they got mad about the George Floyd thing.” To which one is forced to answer, “ Well I can’t really agree with that but okay let’s accept your premise for the sake of …
Read 6 tweets
Jun 2
For all the Trumpers who are upset that this was only a "paper" crime. Remember that your dreams will come true when Trump faces charges for trying to overthrow the Republic and stealing truckloads of highly classified material to stow at his beach resort in random public places.
2/ Indeed, Trump could speed those cases up at any moment by stopping his delaying tactics and let people see the evidence against him in those cases. He could even do that in the documents case where one of the lawyers on his team turns out to be the judge.
3/ There's one thing the country is actually united on. Everyone knows Trump did these things. Virtually all the bombast and threats and huffy denials is meant to con people into thinking otherwise. All his supporters know he breaks the law all the time. He's simply created a ...
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2
An Ad

2016: Trump Losing election: The election is rigged. (before he won when it wasn't rigged.)

2020: Trump Losses election: It was rigged.

2024: Trump Org found liable for decades of fraud: It was rigged.

2024: Trump Convicted of 34 felonies: It was rigged.

other examples of the dozens? put in thread
2/ Is there a pattern? We haven't even gotten into all the things that government did that were rigged when he was running the government.
oh yeah that Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 1
Truth Social just released their 8-K, so the SEC mandated disclosures where you can't lie without commiting a crime. Lots of focus on the dollars, which are hilarious: Just over $4.1 M in revenue, $58M in costs. ... app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadF…
I've mentioned before that this is only barely more than TPM brings in each year and since we're a real business we have costs well under $58m. But these aren't the important data points in this filing. In theory a social platform can be losing a lot of money and still ...
3/ legitimately be worth a ton of money. Facebook had already become a force of nature before Zuckerberg even real turned his attention to monetization. That turned out to be a really good idea. He put his energy into building network effects, platform dominance and only after...
Read 12 tweets
Mar 12
One thing to consider here is that if the RNC is being fused with the Trump campaign and a big chunk of the staff is being fired, what’s the point exactly? That sounds awesome but it just leaves you with a single entity. The president/nominee controls the party apparatus…
2/ you don’t need to do this stuff to have control. It’s also helpful to have an allied group to handle other responsibilities. Gotv operations, working with allied campaigns and a million other things. The only real point of doing this is that you get the money.
3/ People contribute lots of money to national parties. That money is now under the direct control of Trumps family and campaign which really must mean that it goes directly to Trump fees and judgments or possibly that it goes to running Trumps campaign because they campaign …
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
Since this post is getting some attn I wanted to add some details abt WHY this collapse happened. The biggest driver is the evolution, consolidation and growing monopoly power of the big platforms, Google, Meta, et al. But there are some secondary parts of the story that ...
2/ are interesting and worth understanding. Back at the end of 2012 I hired @JRagazzo and one of his core responsibilities was to help me manage and plan our programmatic strategies. One of the ways I built TPM was by being really creative abt maximizing programmatic ...
3/ revenue, which traditional publishers tended to see as what you did with the rest of your ad inventory. In any case, as I was teaching him our systems one of the things I explained to him was that there was a separate VC-driven world of "adtech" and programmatic companies ...
Read 9 tweets

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