Everyone: “Book your flight on a Tuesday at 3 pm, you’ll get the cheapest tickets!”
As an airline veteran, this is a B.S. myth.
Timing matters, but not in the way you think.
If you've ever felt cheated by sudden price hikes, this is what most airlines don’t want you to know:
As an airline veteran, this is a B.S. myth.
Timing matters, but not in the way you think.
If you've ever felt cheated by sudden price hikes, this is what most airlines don’t want you to know:
The best strategies to score cheap tickets according to conventional wisdom:
• Off-peak tickets
• Flexible destinations
• Flights with stopovers
These help. But to game the system, it helps to understand how airlines price their tickets.
• Off-peak tickets
• Flexible destinations
• Flights with stopovers
These help. But to game the system, it helps to understand how airlines price their tickets.
Ever wondered why airline ticket prices fluctuate faster than you can keep up?
It's not you. It's intentionally designed that way.
Think AI-driven madness.
Let's dive in:
It's not you. It's intentionally designed that way.
Think AI-driven madness.
Let's dive in:
Air fares have gone through a full makeover since the 1970s.
In 1974, a NYC to LA round-trip cost $1,442 (in today's dollars).
Then came the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act.
Today, that same flight costs $268.
An 81% drop. But how?
In 1974, a NYC to LA round-trip cost $1,442 (in today's dollars).
Then came the 1978 Airline Deregulation Act.
Today, that same flight costs $268.
An 81% drop. But how?
Airlines use a secret code: Booking Classes.
Not just economy or business. There's an alphabet soup of fare levels.
F = full fare first class
J = full-fare business
Y = full fare economy
But it gets crazy:
Not just economy or business. There's an alphabet soup of fare levels.
F = full fare first class
J = full-fare business
Y = full fare economy
But it gets crazy:
American Airlines and British Airways use D, C, R, I for discount business.
United uses J, C, D, Z, P.
United also uses R for premium economy.
Do you follow?
If that's not complicated enough, guess what:
United uses J, C, D, Z, P.
United also uses R for premium economy.
Do you follow?
If that's not complicated enough, guess what:
A Boston to San Francisco round-trip has over 25 MILLION different valid fares.
Where does all this insanity come from?
Two words: AI algorithms.
• Leisure vs. business
• Past booking data
• Competitor prices
• Fuel costs
• Seasonal demand
Here's where it gets creepy:
Where does all this insanity come from?
Two words: AI algorithms.
• Leisure vs. business
• Past booking data
• Competitor prices
• Fuel costs
• Seasonal demand
Here's where it gets creepy:
Airlines profile YOU.
Ever notice that prices are always higher the 2nd time you check?
It’s not a coincidence. It’s because…
They stalk you.
• Track searches
• Analyze behavior
• Fast-changing prices
So how can you beat the system?
Ever notice that prices are always higher the 2nd time you check?
It’s not a coincidence. It’s because…
They stalk you.
• Track searches
• Analyze behavior
• Fast-changing prices
So how can you beat the system?
Pro tip: The "Tuesday at 3 PM" booking myth is NOT TRUE.
Instead:
• Be flexible with dates
• Use incognito mode to game the algorithm
• Set up price alerts
Remember: Timing matters, but it's not everything.
Another factor that tilts the odds in your favor:
Instead:
• Be flexible with dates
• Use incognito mode to game the algorithm
• Set up price alerts
Remember: Timing matters, but it's not everything.
Another factor that tilts the odds in your favor:
The "Southwest Effect".
When low-cost carriers joined the game, big airlines scrambled to match prices.
A 2013 MIT study showed major fare drops when Southwest and the rest started new routes.
The competition between the airlines is good news for us.
But understand this:
When low-cost carriers joined the game, big airlines scrambled to match prices.
A 2013 MIT study showed major fare drops when Southwest and the rest started new routes.
The competition between the airlines is good news for us.
But understand this:
Airlines aren't just selling you a seat.
They're selling an experience:
• Baggage fees
• Seat selection
• Priority boarding
• In-flight Wi-Fi
In 2015, these "extras" raked in $59.2 billion — and the figure grows 20% per year.
So what does this mean for us travelers?
They're selling an experience:
• Baggage fees
• Seat selection
• Priority boarding
• In-flight Wi-Fi
In 2015, these "extras" raked in $59.2 billion — and the figure grows 20% per year.
So what does this mean for us travelers?
The all-inclusive ticket is a thing of the past.
What works for the airlines now is to:
• Unbundle service
• Offer dirt-cheap base fares
• With à la carte add-ons
If you want cheap tickets, try to pay only the base fare.
What works for the airlines now is to:
• Unbundle service
• Offer dirt-cheap base fares
• With à la carte add-ons
If you want cheap tickets, try to pay only the base fare.
TLDR:
Airline pricing is a complex dance of supply, demand, and data.
To score deals:
• Be flexible with dates
• Use incognito mode
• Set up price alerts
• Go without the à la carte add-ons
Happy hunting!
Airline pricing is a complex dance of supply, demand, and data.
To score deals:
• Be flexible with dates
• Use incognito mode
• Set up price alerts
• Go without the à la carte add-ons
Happy hunting!
And that’s a wrap.
If you enjoyed this, follow me for more @Chowpinglee
For my uncensored thoughts on the aviation industry, click here:
chowpinglee.ck.page/mailinglist
If you enjoyed this, follow me for more @Chowpinglee
For my uncensored thoughts on the aviation industry, click here:
chowpinglee.ck.page/mailinglist
Full credit to Long Haul by Simple Flying for the insights that made this thread possible:
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