1/9 How family reunification could change Ireland forever. A thread....make yourself a tea for this one, make sure you`re sitting down. At least for the last post..... 
2/9 89% of family reunification visas are approved. With an average of 2.4 family members per application. But this is old data see below emn.ie/files/p_201803…
3/9 Using those figures the current pending family reunification applications translate into another 34k people. Working backwards you have approx 16k arrive, they bring in another 34k for a total of 50k. We currently have over 30k IPAS in Ireland at the moment who could = 100k+
4/9 Ireland is expecting another 30k IPAS this year. Using open source data to find multipliers for each country you can estimate the % Muslim in both IPAS & PPSN data. Over 50% of IPAS are likely Islamic.
5/9 So a lower limit using the old multiplier of 2.4 adds 100k to Ireland from IPAS alone. But the Irish times reported that the multiplier can be 4. This gives a likely upper limit that puts it at an additional 120k on top of the current 30k+ IPAS (& another 30k+120k coming)
6/9 In that scenario you add 300k to the population. 150k are likely Muslims thus more than doubling the Islamic cohort in Ireland from 80k approx at Census 2022 to 380k when the visas are granted. But that is not the end of it....
7/9 PPSNs issued to non Irish are far larger than IPAS figures. Also there are 2 family visa streams. 'Family reunification' for IPAS/refugees and 'Join family' for other visa holders. emn.ie/wp-content/upl…
8/9 16% of Non Irish PPSNs issued so far in 2024 (to May) are estimated to have been to Muslims (via open source data). By year end as many as 27k could be added to the Islamic population. This adds to over 1 million Muslims in Ireland in 40 yrs. Source: gov.ie/en/collection/…
9/9 How does Ireland look in the future? A fertility rate of 1.5 makes 4 million Irish decrease to 3 million in a lifetime. 27k Muslims a year + family reunification can add up to 90k a year or nearly 1 million in just 10 years.....in the lower estimate
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
