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✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
@ncdave4life
Jul 9, 2024 • 16 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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1/15≫ Dr. Belch (why oh why isn't she a gastroenterologist?) seems not to recognize the significance of the story.

Climate activists predicted that if Earth's average temperature got to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial (late Little Ice Age) baseline it would be a disaster. But they did, and nothing bad happened.

The significance of that is that it means the climate activists were completely wrong.
2/15≫ In case you're wondering, the 4 known factors which caused 2023 to be so mild were:

1. A strong El Niño spike. And

2. IMO 2020 shipping regulations drastically reduced sulfate aerosol air pollution (The IMO says they resulted in "an estimated 46% decrease in ship-emitted aerosols," which equates to a sudden 10% decrease in total global SO2 emissions, which is a large improvement in a short time, with a significant warming effect). And

3. The unusual 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption, which humidified the stratosphere. And

4. Also a little bit of warming from the ongoing slow rise in atmospheric CO2 levels (though only about 25 ppmv/decade).

It's all good, though (unfortunately) #1 & #3 are temporary.
3/15≫
Q: And what was the result of all that warmth?

A: Nothing. Nothing bad, anyhow.

We still get storms, but they're no worse than in the past.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
4/15≫ In fact, some categories of storms have decreased.
climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-g…
5/15≫ Although droughts still happen, drought impacts are reduced, because elevated CO2 levels make plants more water-efficient and drought resilient. Refs:

Image
6/15≫ Along with improved crop yields from "CO2 fertilization," that has greatly improved global food security and decreased famine risk. Global crop yields are near or above all-time records. Refs:

ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
sealevel.info/ourworldindata…
Image
7/15≫ Thanks to mild 2022-23 and 2023-24 winters, Germany got by without needing Russian gas — which is a very good thing, since they can't get it anymore.
brookings.edu/articles/how-d…
8/15≫ Coastal sea-level trends are about the same as they were seventy years ago (i.e., very slow/slight).
sealevel.info/learnmore.html
9/15≫ Honolulu is arguably the best quality sea-level measurement record in the world. It's near the middle of the world's largest ocean. It has 119 years of continuous measurements, from a near ideal location, without even a single missing month of data. It shows:


Linear trend = 1.54 ±0.20 mm/yr (6 inches/century)
Acceleration = 0.000 ±0.013 mm/yr² (perfectly linear)sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…
sealevel.info/1612340_Honolu…Image
10/15≫ Note that there's been no detectable acceleration in the sea-level trend there. That's typical: some long measurement records show negligible acceleration, and others show none at all.

Here's a Dutch measurement record with 158 years of continuous data!

sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…
sealevel.info/Dutch_dike_vs_…Image
11/15≫ In fact, the "global" (average) coastal sea-level trend is so slight & slow that in many places it is dwarfed by local factors, like erosion, sedimentation, and/or vertical land motion. @GretaThunberg's hometown of Stockholm is one such place.

sealevel.info/MSL_graph.php?…
sealevel.info/050-141_Stockh…Image
12/15≫ The one really important change due to carbon emissions is a monumentally important improvement over the the last half century or so: the end of catastrophic famines.
References:


sealevel.info/Famine-death-r…Image
13/15≫ That's right: catastrophic famines are fading from living memory, for the very first time. For all of human history, famine (usually caused by drought) was one of the great scourges of mankind, the Third Horseman of the Apocalypse — until now!
Image
@GretaThunberg 14/15≫ If you're too young to recognized what a miracle that is, count yourself blessed. In large part because of elevated CO2 levels, catastrophic famines no longer happen.

15/15≫ To understand a highly politicized issue like climate change, you need balanced information. I'm here to help:


It has:
● accurate introductory climatology information
● in-depth science from BOTH skeptics & alarmists
● links to balanced debates between experts on BOTH sides
● accurate information about climate impacts
● links to the best blogs on BOTH sidessealevel.info/learnmore.html…
@GretaThunberg Compilation:


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More from @ncdave4life

✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
Jan 23, 2025
1/4. Rising CO2 levels improve plants' water use efficiency and drought resilience, through reduced stomatal conductance. Simply put, plants need to process less air to get the carbon they need for growth, and thus they lose less water to transpiration.
x.com/ncdave4life/st…

That's one of the reasons that catastrophic famines no longer happen. For all of of human history, until recently, famine was one of the great scourges of mankind: the "Third Horseman of the Apocalypse." But widespread famines are fading from living memory, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is one of the reasons for that.

That's a very, very Big Deal. For comparison:

● COVID-19 killed about 0.1% of the world's population
● The catastrophic 1918 flu pandemic killed about 2%
● WWII killed 2.7% of the world's population
● But the nearly-worldwide drought and famine of 1876-78 killed about 3.7% of the world's population.
@Panta_Rhei06 @simonmaechling --

2/4. Improved water use efficiency and drought resilience are especially beneficial in arid regions, like the Sahel, which is one of the reasons that region of Africa is "greening" even faster than most other places.
Image
3/4. I asked ChatGPT about that benefit of CO2 emissions and rising CO2 levels:

"With reference to the agronomy literature, quantify how elevated CO2 helps plants use water more efficiently, and increases crops' drought resilience, by reducing stomatal conductance and water loss through transpiration."

ChatGPT replied with a very good answer:

In agronomy, the effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency and drought resilience are extensively studied. One of the key mechanisms through which elevated CO2 levels improve water use efficiency is by reducing stomatal conductance and, consequently, water loss through transpiration.

Stomata are small pores on the surface of plant leaves that regulate gas exchange, including the uptake of CO2 for photosynthesis and the release of water vapor through transpiration. When CO2 levels are elevated, plants can maintain the same or higher rate of photosynthesis while reducing stomatal conductance. This reduction in stomatal conductance leads to a decrease in water loss through transpiration without significantly affecting CO2 uptake, resulting in improved water use efficiency.

Several studies have quantified the effect of elevated CO2 on stomatal conductance and transpiration. For example, a meta-analysis published in 2013 (Kimball et al., 2013) found that under elevated CO2 levels, stomatal conductance decreased by an average of 22%, while transpiration decreased by only 17%. This indicates that plants under elevated CO2 levels were able to reduce water loss more efficiently than they reduced CO2 uptake, leading to an overall improvement in water use efficiency.

Improvements in water use efficiency due to elevated CO2 levels can increase plants' drought resilience by allowing them to maintain adequate hydration during periods of water scarcity. This can be particularly beneficial in arid and semi-arid regions where water availability is limited.

Overall, the literature suggests that elevated CO2 levels can improve water use efficiency in plants by reducing stomatal conductance and water loss through transpiration, which can enhance their resilience to drought conditions.
Read 5 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
Jan 12, 2025
1/6》 Marcus, please tell me that you're not fooled by a fake "study" of a three-day-old event, from a climate industry propaganda outlet. Do you know how long real studies take?

This is the real global trend:
● sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
@Marcusgibson @WeatherProf 2/6》 NASA measures it from MODIS satellites. They show a decreasing trend in fires.
● earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145421/…
● archive.ph/WfDJh
● earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/r…
@Marcusgibson @WeatherProf 3/6》 The main factors affecting fires are land management and forestry practices.
● phys.org/news/2022-11-1…
● forestpolicypub.com/2021/07/30/gri…
Global warming has negligible impact on wildfires.
Read 7 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
Jan 11, 2025
1/8. Gov. Newsom's press release falsely blames "a hotter, drier world." In fact, the world is warming only very slightly & slowly, and it hasn't gotten at all drier. Here're the facts:
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
As you can see from the graph, the fraction of the globe in drought has decreased slightly, not increased.

Oh, and BTW, NCA4 (circa 2018) estimated that global average temperatures have risen only 1.14 ±0.13°C since the 1800s, and the warming is disproportionately at chilly high latitudes.Image
2/8. Also, higher CO2 levels greatly reduce drought impacts, by making plants more drought-resistant and water-efficient, through reduced stomatal conductance. That's very beneficial in arid regions, like the Sahel & much of California. Here's an article.
web.archive.org/web/2017061915…
That's is one of the reasons that region of Africa is "greening" even faster than most other places.

@NewScientist reported the "remarkable environmental turnaround," including a “quite spectacular regeneration of vegetation,” and "a 70 per cent increase in yields of local cereals such as sorghum and millet in one province in recent years."
@WeatherProf 3/8. National Geographic @NatGeo also wrote about it.
web.archive.org/web/2009080201…

sealevel.info/Owen2009_Sahar…
Read 9 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
Oct 10, 2024
1/8》Doc wrote, "You’re not going to change my mind."

Please do not be impervious to evidence, like trillionofcells. That would make me sad.Image
2/8》Doc wrote, "Wasn’t Gleick cleared of any wrongdoing?"

No, he was not cleared. That was disinformation from The Grauniad:
x.com/ncdave4life/st…

In fact, Gleick eventually admitted the identity theft, and disseminating the forgery & the stolen documents (though only after he was caught & publicly identified).

I can see that you didn't read my article about it. You should:
sealevel.info/Peter_Gleick_D…
3/8》Gleick never admitted being the forger, but there can be no doubt of that, either.

It was the incongruous appearance of his name in the document, with the strangely flattering description of him as a "high-profile climate scientist," in a document which said NOTHING positive about ANY other climate activists, which first drew Steve Mosher's attention to Gleick. But it was the idiosyncrasies of Gleick's own writing style, found in the forged document, which Mosher mostly discussed, when explaining why he believed Gleick wrote it.

Mosher explained it, at length, in a series of blog comments, beginning here:
rankexploits.com/musings/2012/t…

Note that that was all BEFORE Gleick confessed to being the person who had impersonated the Heartland Board Member to steal the other documents. THAT iced it: there's no question that Gleick was the forger.

(BTW, Mosher used to be with Berkeley Earth.)
Read 9 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
Oct 2, 2024
1/8. The IPCC authors expect  a worsening trend. No such trend is actually detectable, so far.

In fact, here's a paper about the downward  trend in hurricane destructiveness, tho I suspect the decrease might be a fluctuation rather than a durable trend.
nature.com/articles/ncomm…
2/8. The IPCC authors are sly. They know hurricanes & other tropical cyclones aren't worse, but they dodge & weave to avoid admitting it. Here's a tricky quote from AR6:

"It is likely that the global proportion of Category 3–5 tropical cyclone instances has increased over the past four decades."

ref: ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…
3/8. That's a textbook illustration of Chesterton's point:

"Falsehood is never so false as when it is very nearly true."

It's "spin." It is calculated deception without QUITE lying.

Look at that graph again:

(Updated version: )climatlas.com/tropical/globa…Image
Read 9 tweets
✝️ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Dave Burton Profile picture
Aug 14, 2024
@JamesFaris_ & @BusinessInsider, here's reality:

Hurricanes and other tropical cyclones:


tl;dr: Hurricanes are not worsening.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
climatlas.com/tropical/globa…Image
Tornadoes:


tl;dr: Tornadoes are not worsening.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
climateataglance.com/wp-content/upl…Image
Droughts & floods:


tl;dr: Droughts & floods are not worsening.



sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
sealevel.info/US_percentage_…Image
Read 7 tweets

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