The recent discussion about Biden has gone through phases. The first was about the debate performance. The second was about whether that was a signal of potential problems to come. But we are now in a third phase which turns more fears about the state of the campaign.
These concerns are largely from political professionals (not commentators). They turn not just on setbacks since the debate but on the fact that the campaign was seemingly spinning its wheels even beforehand. I sense a bunch of it is from worried folks down the ballot.
These conversations seem to be continuing despite Biden's repeated statements that he is definitely running and in it for the long haul and have not been helped by recent polling data, the Cook Report downgrade of Dem battleground prospects, etc.
Don't shoot the messenger here. I'm sharing this because a.) it's what I've been hearing and b.) it explains why this has not yet gone away. People are just worried about losing. Which we all should be, given the stakes.
I still think Biden will survive as the candidate.
As for whether the Dems will win in November...while I am hopeful, the mood is darkening among many professionals I trust.
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It's pretty clear. Biden is standing for, believes in and still fights for the values that led Americans to the beaches of Normandy 80 years ago. And Trump and the MAGA movement oppose and seek to undermine all those values.
Trump is on the wrong side in the struggle that caused World War II. He is on the side of fascism. Of the enemy. He derogates our heroes. He seeks to undo the gains we made by winning that war. He attacks our allies and our alliances. He supports our enemies.
Trump had a book of Hitler's speeches by his bed. Trump's own cabinet members said he defended Hitler. Watching the 80th Anniversary of D-Day commemorations we should try to understand the full implications of Trump & MAGA in the context of WWII and the last century.
In traveling through Eastern and Central Europe, the level of despair and palpable fear that Trump may return to office is off-the-charts. A Trump victory is seen as a win for Putin and the beginning of a new round of tectonic changes in the structure of Europe.
In some countries along Russia's borders or near to them, the prospect of a Trump enabled defeat in Ukraine, a weakening of NATO and tacit or explicit U.S. support for Putin and his proxies spells real trouble for democracy and the balance of influence on the continent.
Many express utter disbelief that the voters of America could make such a mistake and put so much that America has been working for during the past century in peril. I try to offer cogent reasons why a Biden victory is more likely than Trump redux.
The mistake too many inside and out of the administration make is thinking that Netanyahu is a just a difficult ally, even a very difficult one. He is not an ally. He is, in fact, an enemy of America's goals, interests, and values as well as a political foe of President Biden.
Israel is our friend. Peace in the region is our goal. Security, self-determination and dignity for Israelis and Palestinians alike is the only way to that goal. Netanyahu, like Hamas, actively opposes that goal and seeks to make it impossible.
Hamas and Netanyahu are not the same, of course. Hamas is a terrorist organization. Netanyahu is a rogue wannabe autocrat who has with a band of extremists hijacked a democratic government and serially abused the trust of its people and its neighbors.
I, for one, am a bit surprised at the general acceptance of the degree of deference that has been shown to Trump in this case. He was given far too much time and too many chances to return the documents he stole from the government.
As the subsequent seizure of the documents revealed, they were extremely sensitive in nature and put our national security at risk every moment they were held by Trump in the insecure locations he kept them or were referred to by him in meetings with visitors and associates.
Consequently, the deference could well have been deeply damaging. Similarly, if he was hiding documents at Mar-a-Lago it stands to reason some might have been at his many other residences. Why were they not searched? A normal person would not have received such a courtesy.
The book on how to indict an ex-president has not been written--until now. Chapter One was by Alvin Bragg. Ch. Two was by Jack Smith, informed by Chapter One. Ch. Three, likely by Fani Willis, will be informed by the other two experiences. So by the time we get to Ch. Four...
which is probably the most consequential of the cases, about how Trump led an insurrection against the US government and a systematic effort to defraud American voters, there will be quite a lot to draw on, to help get each element right.
What is more, the shock factor will have been degraded quite a bit. The pearl clutching of Trump's supporters will be even less credible. There arguments that somehow Trump is being wronged will appear dramatically weaker (and they appear pretty darn weak now.)
I regularly go through a debate in my mind about who is worse at their jobs, sports show analysts or political pundits. (You would think weather forecasters might be included in the mix, but the reality is that their predictions are vastly better than the other two groups.)
With the sports analysts, the level of BS is just shameless. Day-in and day-out they speak with great conviction, some of them banging the table or shouting at their guests or audiences, asserting they know what's going to happen next in one sports event or another.
And then when they're wrong they just move right on to a new equally certain prediction. And they do this week in and week out and they are wrong a lot. "I guarantee you Team X will sweep the series." "Of course, Team X lost game 1. The coach blew it...