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Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
@benryanwriter
Jul 13, 2024 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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NEW STUDY: Trans identification has surged in young adults, driven by natal females; increase is greater in whites.
From 2014-2022, trans identification:
▶️Nearly quintupled in 18-24 year olds
▶️Quadrupled in 25-34 y/os
▶️Stayed flat or declined in those age 35+
▶️By 2022, 2.78% of 18-24 year-old adults identified as trans, up from 0.59% in 2014.
▶️The increase was driven by those identifying as trans men or gender non-conforming; identification as a trans woman did not change significantly among young adults and declined significantly among all adults.
▶️The increase in identifying as trans was larger among White individuals than among Black or Hispanic individuals.

The study is based on nationally representative data
link.springer.com/article/10.100…Image
In a new essay posted on the Yale Law website, researchers in the pediatric gender medicine space such as @Jack_Turban lambasted the Cass Review for saying that trans identification has "increased exponentially." But this new study finds what looks like exponential growth when trans identification is broken down by birth year:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…Image
Trans identification nearly quintupled among 18 to 24 year olds and quadrupled among 24 to 34 year olds from 2014 to 2022:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Image
A breakdown in the types of trans identification in 18 to 24 year olds from 2014 to 2022: Image
Percent of US 18- to 24-year-olds self-identifying as transgender, by racial/ethnic identity, 2014–2022: Image
Percent of US 18- to 24-year-olds self-identifying as transgender, by residence in a Democrat-leaning or Republican- leaning state, 2014–2022: Image
As one person commented, @Jack_Turban has argued that trans identification has recently decreased in adolescents. Image
@jack_turban The findings in the new study are likely to be fairly accurate, since they are based on nationally representative data and an enormous data set. link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Image
I posted the wrong graph earlier in the thread with this one:

Percent of US 18- to 24-year-olds self-identifying as transgender, by residence in a Democrat-leaning or Republican- leaning state, 2014–2022: Image
This study raises questions:
▶️Why has trans identification surged in young adults but not in middle-aged or older adults?
▶️Why has trans identification surged in natal females but not in natal males?
▶️Why has trans identification risen more in whites?

What do you think?

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More from @benryanwriter

Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
Jan 23
NEWS: New Research Raises More Doubts About Safety and Benefits of Gender Transition Treatments for Minors
🧵👇I report: The most rigorous academic analysis to date of the research backing puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones as treatments for gender-related distress in young people has found it has produced ‘very uncertain’ evidence. —@NewYorkSunImage
LINK: New Research Raises More Doubts About Safety and Benefits of Gender Transition Treatments for Minors, I report for The @NewYorkSun.
nysun.com/article/new-re…
🧵A pair of major new analyses of research into providing gender-transition drugs to adolescents and young adults have indicated that a prevailing orthodoxy in the U.S. medical community  — that such treatments are safe and effective for gender-distressed minors — is largely based on “very uncertain” scientific evidence.

The most rigorous such analyses of their kind to date, these new academic papers are the latest reports to cast doubt on the transgender movement’s battle, now on the defensive, to protect minors’ access to ultimately irreversible gender-transition treatments. The new analyses reach the damning conclusion that almost all the research assessing such treatments is decidedly unreliable at anticipating risks and benefits alike, thanks to consistently weak study designs that leave the door wide open for biased and unreliable results.
nysun.com/article/new-re…Image
Read 14 tweets
Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
Jan 21
NEWS: Trump Signs Executive Order “Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to Federal Government”
🧵👇I report: The sweeping order, which defines sex as binary and fixed and seeks to exclude biological males from women's prisons and rape shelters, will inevitably be challenged by multiple lawsuits.Image
LINK: Trump Signs Executive Order “Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to Federal Government”

The sweeping order, which defines sex as binary and fixed and seeks to exclude biological males from women's prisons and rape shelters, will inevitably be challenged by multiple lawsuits.benryan.substack.com/p/trump-signs-…Image
What is in Trump's executive order about "gender ideology"?

This Trump executive order essentially erases the concept that there is such a thing as being transgender from the federal bureaucracy and replaces it with a strict binary of two sexes: male and female.benryan.substack.com/p/trump-signs-…Image
Read 21 tweets
Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
Jan 20
Trump says: “This week, I will also end the government policy of trying to social engineer race and gender into every aspect of public and private life.”

And: “As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female.”

There was enthusiastic applause in the rotunda.
In short, Trump has taken aim at DEI.
Trump says he wants to be a “peacemaker and a unifier.”
Read 4 tweets
Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
Jan 20
Trump to issue raft of transgender-related executive orders on day 1

For @TheFP, @EmilyYoffe reports that these executive orders include:
▶️The Executive Order establishes Government-wide the biological reality of two sexes and clearly defines male and female.
▶️All radical gender ideology guidance, communication, policies, and forms are removed.
Agencies will cease pretending that men can be women and women can be men when enforcing laws that protect against sex discrimination.
▶️“Woman” means an “adult human female.”
▶️The Executive Order directs that Government identification like passports and personnel records will reflect biological reality and not self-assessed gender identity.
▶️The Executive Order ends the practice of housing men in women’s prisons and taxpayer funded “transition” for male prisoners.
▶️The Executive Order ends the forced recitation of “preferred pronouns” and protects Americans’ First Amendment and statutory rights to recognize the biological and binary nature of sex.
▶️This includes protection in the workplace and in federal funded entities like schools.Image
thefp.com/p/trumps-day-o…
Note that these bullet points as @EmilyYoffe reported them for @TheFP (see above) are verbatim how the Trump team put them.
Read 6 tweets
Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
Jan 19
Natacha calls the new Johanna Olson-Kennedy paper regarding 315 gender dysphoric 12-20 year olds who received cross-sex hormones for 2 years a "stake through the heart of the Cass Review." I have yet to read the paper in depth, but do take a look at the 🧵👇for some thoughts. Image
Take a look at the changes in psychological well being, social satisfaction, negative social perception, self-efficacy, negative social perception, and negative affect after these youth were on cross-sex hormones for 24 months. Notice how slight the improvements were. Notice how some people's psychological well-being worsened.

The major and dramatic improvements were in the first plot, which shows appearance congruence (AC). This is unsurprising, since the central purpose of taking cross-sex hormones is to develop secondary sex characteristics of the opposite sex to bring the body in line with gender identity. But even if that shift is associated with improvements in the other domains, the change in those other domains is quite minor.

Keep in mind how often we are told that after youth start these hormones, they improve dramatically. These data simply do not show a dramatic shift.

And because this study, which we've seen before (see: Chen et al 2023), quite famously has no control group of any kind, there is no way to know whether these slight improvements, or lack of deterioration on average, can be attributed to the hormones, to psychotherapy the youth were perhaps also getting, or reversion to the mean.

Keep in mind that the Chen et al paper was indeed factored into the Cass Review. It was considered as a part of the University of York systematic literature review that concluded: "There is a lack of high-­ quality research assessing the use of hormones in adolescents experiencing gender dysphoria/incongruence. Moderate-quality evidence suggests mental health may be improved during treatment, but robust study is still required. For other outcomes, no conclusions can be drawn. More recent studies published since April 2022 until January 2024 [this includes Chen et al] also support the conclusions of this review."

Also note that despite the fact that 2 years have passed since the Chen et al paper was published, this new study regarding the same cohort also only provides 2 years of data. We still don't have more follow-up data on these youth.

Why is that?

Keep in mind that Olson-Kennedy is the same doctor who told the NYT that she was withholding publishing her puberty blocker study that reached null findings for political reasons. (Also note that she has since denied under oath that she said this and asserted that the study was delayed from publication for other reasons."Image
Image
Olson-Kennedy et al (2025): sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 9 tweets
Benjamin Ryan Profile picture
Jan 18
Most Americans Don't Support Top Trans-Activist Goals, NYT Poll Finds
🧵👇I report: A Times opinion poll found that the majority of Democrats think women's sports should be restricted by to sex, not gender identity, and that minors shouldn't have access to transition drugs.Image
LINK: Most Americans Don't Support Top Trans-Activist Goals, NYT Poll Finds

A Times opinion poll found that the majority of Democrats think women's sports should be restricted according to sex, not gender identity, and that minors shouldn't have access to transition drugs.benryan.substack.com/p/most-america…Image
As Donald Trump prepares to re-assume the presidency on Monday, a NYT/Ipsos poll finds that the majority of Americans, including most Democrats, are opposed to some of the key liberties that transgender activists have fought for in the face of advancing Republican opposition. benryan.substack.com/p/most-america…
Read 13 tweets

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