Thread by @BallotBoxScot

🧵THREAD: UK #GE24 UNDER PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

This was the least representative election in the UK's democratic history. Millions of votes didn't count. "What if we had PR?" is talked about, but mostly in simple X% votes = X% seats terms. This is a detailed model.

PRINCIPLES: Partly inspired by Norway, uses Sainte-Laguë to allocate seats within districts. Final seat in each is "levelling seat" allocated to give proportionality between parties w/ at least 3% of the regional vote. Districts Lego-bricked from FPTP seats for simplicity.

OVERALL RESULTS (vs FPTP):

Lab ~ 225 (-186) : Con ~ 154 (+33) : RUK ~ 99 (+94) : LD ~ 79 (+7) : Grn ~ 44 (+40) : SNP ~ 17 (+8) : PC ~ 5 (+1) : SF ~ 4 (-3) : DUP ~ 4 (-1) : All ~ 3 (+2) : UUP ~ 3 (+2) : SDLP ~ 2 (nc) : TUV ~ 1 (nc) : Workers ~ 1 (+1) : Inds ~ 9 (+2)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN SCOTLAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 35.2%, 20 (-17)
SNP ~ 29.5%, 17 (+8)
Conservative ~ 12.7%, 7 (+2)
Lib Dem ~ 9.6%, 6 (nc)
Reform UK ~ 6.9%, 4 (+4)
Green ~ 4.5%, 3 (+3)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN WALES, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 36.8%, 12 (-15)
Conservative ~ 18.0%, 6 (+6)
Reform UK ~ 17.3%, 6 (+6)
Plaid Cymru ~ 14.8%, 5 (+1)
Lib Dem ~ 6.5%, 2 (+1)
Green ~ 4.6%, 1 (+1)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN NORTHERN IRELAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Sinn Féin ~ 27.0%, 4 (-3)
DUP ~ 22.1%, 4 (-1)
Alliance ~ 15.0%, 3 (+2)
UUP* ~ 12.2%, 3 (+2)
SDLP ~ 11.1%, 2 (nc)
TUV ~ 6.2%, 1 (nc)
Oth ~ 6.3%, 1 (nc; Ind Alex Easton)

*UUP overhang 1 seat at SF's expense.

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN NORTH EAST ENGLAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 45.0%, 12 (-14)
Reform UK ~ 21.5%, 6 (+6)
Conservative ~ 19.5%, 5 (+4)
Green ~ 5.9%, 2 (+2)
Lib Dem ~ 5.7%, 2 (+2)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN NORTH WEST ENGLAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 44.0%, 33 (-32)
Conservative ~ 18.8%, 14 (+11)
Reform UK ~ 16.6%, 12 (+12)
Lib Dem ~ 7.9%, 6 (+3)
Green ~ 7.0%, 5 (+5)
Others ~ 5.8%, 3 (+1; Speaker, Ind Adnan Hussain, Workers Party)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 40.6%, 22 (-21)
Conservative ~ 22.6%, 13 (+4)
Reform UK ~ 17.6%, 10 (+10)
Green ~ 7.5%, 4 (+4)
Lib Dem ~ 7.0%, 4 (+4)
Others ~ 4.7%, 1 (nc; Ind Muhammed Islam)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN EAST MIDLANDS, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 35.3%, 17 (-12)
Conservative ~ 29.4%, 14 (-1)
Reform UK ~ 18.9%, 9 (+7)
Lib Dem ~ 6.4%, 3 (+3)
Green ~ 6.3%, 3 (+3)
Others ~ 3.7%, 1 (nc; Ind Shockat Adam)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN WEST MIDLANDS, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 33.9%, 20 (-18)
Conservative ~ 27.4%, 16 (+1)
Reform UK ~ 18.5%, 11 (+11)
Lib Dem ~ 8.8%, 5 (+3)
Green ~ 6.5%, 4 (+3)
Others ~ 4.8%, 1 (nc; Ind Ayoub Khan)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN SOUTH WEST ENGLAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Conservative ~ 27.8%, 16 (+5)
Lib Dem ~ 24.6%, 15 (-7)
Labour ~ 24.2%, 14 (-10)
Reform UK ~ 14.6%, 9 (+9)
Green ~ 7.3%, 4 (+3)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN EAST ENGLAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Conservative ~ 30.4%, 19 (-4)
Labour ~ 29.3%, 19 (-8)
Reform UK ~ 17.7%, 11 (+8)
Lib Dem ~ 13.1%, 8 (+1)
Green ~ 7.1%, 4 (+3)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN SOUTH EAST ENGLAND, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Conservative ~ 30.4%, 28 (-2)
Labour ~ 24.4%, 23 (-13)
Lib Dem ~ 21.8%, 20 (-4)
Reform UK ~ 14.5%, 14 (+14)
Green ~ 6.8%, 6 (+5)

UK GE24 PR RESULT IN LONDON, VOTES AND SEATS (vs FPTP):

Labour ~ 43.0%, 33 (-26)
Conservative ~ 20.5%, 16 (+7)
Lib Dem ~ 11.0%, 8 (+2)
Green ~ 10.0%, 8 (+8)
Reform ~ 8.7%, 7 (+7)
Others ~ 6.7%, 3 (+2; Ind Jeremy Corbyn, Leanne Mohammed, Ajmal Masroor)

Yes, districts here *WILD*

Phew! That's every part of the UK. You can read a full rundown of how this works, with some commentary on every region individually, plus a nice little interactive map showing the result in each PR district, on the BBS website here: ballotbox.scot/ge-2024-pr/