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Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

Jun 26

Most people don't understand how interest rates, population growth, and immigration are related.

Let's fix that with a quick thread.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ A central bank's purpose is to control the decay of money, aka inflation.

If inflation is low, they cut rates to stimulate consumption by lowering the cost of borrowing. Since debt is your future income used today, this creates demand w/the goal of overrunning supply.

3/ Pretty easy since they can cut rates a lot faster than supply chains can respond, which is the goal. They're trying to raise prices to drive inflation, after all.

The opposite is also true. They raise rates to slow inflation by delaying demand so there's excess supply.

Read 18 tweets

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

@StephenPunwasi

May 16

Families in 🇨🇦 work *really* hard to survive.

Policymakers don’t appreciate that fact, when they’re spending years of your labor with a stroke of a pen.

They spend so much, people have a hard time fully comprehending these numbers.

Let’s put it in context.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ I constantly hear politicians & their minions say, “it’s only a million/billion,” like they made that last week at the race track.

In reality, the median household paid $9.3k in income taxes in 2022, and worked their ass off to do it.

How many had their cash incinerated?

3/ the widely acknowledged public failure known as ArriveCan cost at least $59.5m.

It’s the equivalent taxes paid by 6.4k median households that went to work for a whole year FFS.

This company wasn’t vetted, but 107.5k median households went to work to pay them.

Read 15 tweets

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

@StephenPunwasi

May 5

People in 🇨🇦 are historically very accepting of immigrants & the country's generous immigration policies.

Now they're sounding more split. Unfortunately, a lot of well-intended people are being exploited by predators to adopt their opinions.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ Historically, 🇨🇦's post-war immigration policy was extremely successful. That's because it generally focused on people who were:

- hard-working: often only leaving their home due to political or economic downturns;

- talented: academics & skilled labor;

3/ 🇨🇦 offered both groups the same thing—a life where hard work will allow them a safe & secure future for them to have a family.

In exchange, 🇨🇦 got an injection of productivity that helped its economy grow & drive the prosperity of everyone. Finding people against it was rare.

Read 17 tweets

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

@StephenPunwasi

Apr 21

Why is every politician discussing their aggressive plan for affordable housing?

… even the ones you know don’t care about it?

Well, they hijacked the term and weaponized it against the people who need it. Here’s how.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ in 🇨🇦, the term affordable housing now means a rental that’s 1/3 the median household income.

First off, a third of income isn’t really affordable. A third of income is the max allowable payment a mortgage borrower can accept before they’re considered too risky of a payer.

3/ so, affordable really means the max a person can reliably pay without being a default risk in this case.

in Canada, it also means maximum regulatory leverage. That doesn’t feel the same, does it?

Wait until you realize how that plays into distribution.

Read 9 tweets

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

@StephenPunwasi

Apr 17

Hoping for lower mortgage rates?

Central banks are saying the era of low rates are over & you might agree if you knew how we got there.

Let's talk about the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, your mortgage rate, and China. Seriously.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ First off, it's important to remember interest rates are relative to inflation.

Inflation is different in every country but one currency influences them all—the global reserve, aka the 🇺🇸 dollar.

The global reserve is extremely important for conducting trade.

3/ To avoid being paid with worthless money, when two countries conduct trade they use the global reserve.

As a result, global commodities are generally priced in USD, such as oil, steel, and lumber.

Ex: Oil prices can be flat but weaker $CAD leads to higher prices in 🇨🇦.

Read 15 tweets

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

@StephenPunwasi

Jan 24

About 80% of Singapore’s population is housed in public housing, but not the kind in the West.

Low income families & young couples to high income bankers and business people live in them.

They’re incredibly affordable. How? Only citizens can live in them.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ Singapore’s public housing scheme is run by its Housing & Development Board (HDB), and public housing is appropriately called HDB flats.

Rather than auctioning off all gov land to private companies, the gov develops the land and sells 99-year leases for the units.

3/ Since these are leasehold properties, with the government retaining ultimate control over the land.

The homes are traded in open market, and you can get a mortgage to buy them. Appreciation is slowed as the units approach the end of their life though.

Read 9 tweets

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More from @StephenPunwasi

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

Stephen Punwasi 🏚️📉🐈☃️

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